Beef Buzz News
Cattle Industry Watchers Predict Big Drop in Feedlot Placements in Friday Report
Thu, 19 Jan 2012 19:23:35 CST
Placements are likely to be well under the numbers of twelve months ago in Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed report. The January Cattle on Feed Report will be released by the US Department of Agriculture on Friday, January 20th at 2:00 PM central time, after the cattle futures markets are closed for the week.
On today's Beef Buzz, we feature comments from Erica Rosa-Sanko of the Livestock Market Information Center out of Denver, Colorado, as she offers the pre- report estimates from the LMIC. The Center expects sharply lower placements in December 2011 versus December 2010- perhaps as much as eight to nine percent fewer numbers of calves going into the feedlots. She predicts that marketings will be lower by one to two percent, and LMIC is predicting the January 20th report will show three percent more cattle in the nation's feedlots as of January 1, 2012 compared to January 1, 2011.
Average guesses from a number of analysts contacted by Dow Jones showed placements at higher levels than the LMIC expectations- but still 5.8% smaller than a year ago. Rich Nelson of Allendale told Dow Jones that "this is probably the start of this big drop in placements that will extend for a few months."
Speaking of Allendale- they have released their pre- report estimates, according to their Director of Research, Rich Nelson, and here are the highlights of what the company expects in the Friday release:
"December Placements are expected to be 4.0% smaller than last year. We expect smaller supplies of medium and heavy feeders to offset continued liquidation in the South. Cattle placed in December will be marketed from May to September.
"Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 1.7% higher than December of 2010. There was a 1.5% adjustment made due to days on the calendar in that month. In addition, we have adjusted our estimate to reflect the discrepancy between USDA's COF marketing number and actual steer and heifer slaughter over recent months.
"Total Cattle on Feed as of January 1 will be 2.8% larger than last year."
The USDA will release their numbers at 2:00 PM central time on Friday afternoon, January 20, 2012. A related report on the full US Cattle herd inventory will be released a week later- on Friday afternoon, January 27, 2012. Thursday's Beef Buzz looked at what those numbers may reveal, as based on comments from Dr. James Mintert of Purdue University. Click here for that Beef Buzz and your chance to hear his thoughts in advance of the US Cattle Inventory report.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network- but is also a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the listen bar below for today's show- and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
Ron Hays Beef Buzzes with Erica Rosa- Sanko of the LMIC on the Upcoming Cattle on Feed Report.
right-click to download mp3
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