Beef Buzz News
Kevin Good of Cattlefax Still Optimistic Beef Will Trend Higher After Third Quarter
Wed, 04 Apr 2012 15:40:38 CDT
Kevin Good speaks with Ron Hays about trends in the domestic beef market.
Cattle markets in the first quarter of the year have offered some surprises and Kevin Good of Cattlefax spoke with Ron Hays at the recent Texas Southwestern Cattle Raisers annual meeting. Good says there are several things to take into consideration when looking at the markets coming out of last year and into the first quarter.
“We sure thought that prices would be higher as we came into this year. That was definitely the trend. It exceeded our expectations as far as the magnitude of the push in the market. We’ve got to remember any more the markets are very directional. They’re either going up or they’re going down.
“We got a sharp rise in the first half of the year. There’s some concerns, though, as you look at the price levels we pushed to. Fed cattle got to 130 before they hit a brick wall and now they’re trending lower, you know, from spring to summer. I think we’ve got to recognize that as the top side of a range here for awhile. We tried to push beef and got it up to two bucks on the cutout and it ran into a brick wall. So we’ve got to be concerned about that as far as the barrier on the top side.”
It appears that the highs normally seen a little later in the year arrived somewhat early this year. Good says that seems to be a new trend not just with highs, but with the markets in general.
“What the markets have done over the last couple of years is we’ve built in the good news 30 to 60 days early. In other words, we put the highs in 30 to 60 days before our tightest supplies. We do that a lot of times on the lows as well. The market anticipates that and that’s what happened again this year. The good news was built in early and we ran out of gas.”
So where does that leave Good and his annual forecast which seemed a little more optimistic than what the markets are currently reflecting?
“I think we were talking 122, or so, fed cattle values for the year. If there’s anything that’s changed since then, we might be just a tick not quite as optimistic for a couple of reasons: Your imports are increasing at a faster pace than we would have thought and it just goes back to the value of U.S. trim beef which is record high. You can import Australian product in cheaper than you can produce it domestically, so we are getting more imports in than we would have thought two or three months ago so that’s going to add to that net beef supply as well as the fact that our carcass weights are running about 19 to 20 pounds above a year ago. So, a little more tonnage because of weights. Because of that we have a little more product to go through here over the second and third quarter.”
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network- but is also a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show- and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
right-click to download mp3
WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI
Cattle on Feed Up 2% - OSU's Derrell Peel Breaks Down the Numbers in this Month's USDA Report Fri, 19 Apr 2019 10:59:59 CDT
Certified Angus Beef Just Passed 1 Billion Pounds in Annual Sales, But Can They Really Hit 2 Billion? Thu, 18 Apr 2019 10:17:19 CDT
Speculation Swirls Over Potential Opportunities for US Meat Industry in Wake of African Swine Fever Wed, 17 Apr 2019 10:36:17 CDT
Register Now to Attend the 2019 Hemphill Beef Cattle Conference Featuring Dr. Temple Grandin Tue, 16 Apr 2019 10:22:45 CDT
Monday April 15th is Deadline for Submitting Comments to EPA on Waters of the US Rule Sun, 14 Apr 2019 14:25:12 CDT
Consumer Priorities Can Change, But These 3 Things Never Fall Off the List - Taste, Flavor, Juiciness Fri, 12 Apr 2019 10:18:04 CDT
CAB: 1 in 5 Fed Cattle in North America Hit Certified Angus Specs Thanks to Producers' Commitment to Quality Mon, 15 Apr 2019 05:02:54 CDT
Beef Industry's Digital Strategy Beginning to Reach Maturity as Millennials and Gen-Z Come of Age Wed, 10 Apr 2019 10:21:56 CDT
That Chuck is One Quick Study - Alisa Harrison Explains How Industry's New AI Spokesman Works Tue, 09 Apr 2019 10:48:32 CDT
Simmental Association Launches Exciting New Project Designed to Expand Carcass Data Collection Mon, 08 Apr 2019 11:26:50 CDT
NCBA's Colin Woodall Says Green New Deal Only Helps Strengthen Beef Industry's Credibility Fri, 05 Apr 2019 14:09:25 CDT
China Trade Talks Seem to be Progressing Well, But You Know China... You Really Never Can Tell Thu, 04 Apr 2019 12:18:11 CDT
Flooding Less Devastating Than Thought with Damage at Just a Fraction of Early Estimates Wed, 03 Apr 2019 12:10:47 CDT
Analyst Randy Blach Says Margins a Little Tight This Year, But Cow/Calf Sector Remains Profitable Tue, 02 Apr 2019 12:48:41 CDT
Rabobank's Don Close Says Cattle Market Has Peaked Out for the Year - Better Sell While You Can Mon, 01 Apr 2019 19:07:29 CDT
CoBank Analyst Will Sawyer Sees Great Opportunity in Continued Growth of Meat Export Business Fri, 29 Mar 2019 11:33:48 CDT
NEWSFLASH: Changing Your Diet Won't Change the Environment - In Case You Weren't Aware Thu, 28 Mar 2019 10:45:50 CDT
Left's Anti-Ag Agenda Exposed as Dems Fail to Uphold Green New Deal in Embarrassing Defeat Wed, 27 Mar 2019 11:33:00 CDT
Grilling Season is Upon Us - Beef Demand Expected to Climb as Markets Approach Seasonal Peaks Tue, 26 Mar 2019 10:24:40 CDT
Higher Than Expected Placements Take Industry by Surprise in Latest USDA Cattle on Feed Report Mon, 25 Mar 2019 11:52:24 CDT
Is Your Ranch Operation Not Performing Like It Should? May be Time for a New Management Plan Fri, 22 Mar 2019 11:31:24 CDT
If Analysts Have it Right, USDA's March On Feed Report May Show First Inventory Decline in Years Thu, 21 Mar 2019 15:12:42 CDT
Per Capita Meat Supplies May Back Off Slightly in 2019- Which Could Be Supportive of Cattle Prices Wed, 20 Mar 2019 10:44:37 CDT
Cattle UpCycle Feedstuffs Not Usable by Humans- A Sustainable Success Story for the Beef Industry Tue, 19 Mar 2019 08:38:28 CDT
Selecting for Leg and Hoof Structure- Dr. Jennifer Bormann Says a Genetic Baseline is Being Developed Mon, 18 Mar 2019 09:02:37 CDT
NCBA Chief Vet Dr. Kathy Simmons Explains the Necessity of Responsible Antimicrobial Stewardship Fri, 15 Mar 2019 11:34:50 CDT
BQA Program Highly Regarded as Producers' Most Important Tool to Ensure Quality Beef Production Thu, 14 Mar 2019 12:48:31 CDT
2018 an Exceptional Year for US Beef Exports Especially in Asian Market Despite Current Challenges Wed, 13 Mar 2019 10:58:19 CDT
Meat Scientist Brad Morgan Unphased by Rise of Fake Meat, Says It's No Competition for Real Thing Tue, 12 Mar 2019 12:01:16 CDT
Market Watcher Derrell Peel Says USDA On Feed Report Suggests Spring Weather Market Brewing Mon, 11 Mar 2019 12:22:29 CDT
Beef Industry Claims Major Victory in Fake Meat Fight But NCBA's Colin Woodall Says War's Not Over Fri, 08 Mar 2019 13:02:24 CST
If US-China Relations Fixed, Beef Demand Could Grow Exponentially - Unless Recession Gets in Way Thu, 07 Mar 2019 11:32:46 CST
NCBA's Alisa Harrison Explains Why Checkoff Research is so Critically Important to the Beef Industry Wed, 06 Mar 2019 14:25:56 CST
Industry Seeing a Return on Its Digital Investment - NCBA's Alisa Harrison Says Strategy is Working Tue, 05 Mar 2019 13:05:18 CST
There's a New Expert in Town and His Name is Chuck- NCBA Formally Launches Chuck Knows Beef Mon, 04 Mar 2019 12:14:30 CST