Oklahoma Farm Report masthead graphic with wheat on the left and cattle on the right.
Howdy Neighbors!
Ron Hays, Director of Farm and Ranch Programming, Radio Oklahoma Ag Network  |  2401 Exchange Ave, Suite F, Oklahoma City, Ok 73108  |  (405) 601-9211

advertisements
   
   
   
   
   

Beef Buzz News


Tonsor Bullish on Cowherd Expansion

Wed, 21 Jan 2015 14:33:12 CST

Tonsor Bullish on Cowherd Expansion
Kansas State University Livestock Market Economist Dr. Glynn Tonsor believes the U.S. has made progress in expanding the nation's mamma cowherd. There have been some mixed signals on whether expansion has taken place, such as the July 2014 inventory report from U.S. Department of Agriculture that recorded a loss in heifer retention. Tonsor is optimistic the next Cattle Inventory report from the USDA will show expansion is taking place. That report will be released on Friday, January 30 at 2 p.m. Central Time.


"I fully expect there to be a year-over-year increase in heifer retention number there," Tonsor said. "Time will tell if that is confirmed."


Radio Oklahoma Network Farm Director Ron Hays featured Tonsor on the Beef Buzz feature. Click or tap on the LISTEN BAR below to listen to today's Beef Buzz.


Tonsor said another source that reveals whether cowherd expansion is taking place is the quarterly information in the Cattle on Feed report. That report shows what share of the calfcrop is staying on the ranch in the form of heifers, versus the steers coming to the feedyards. He said those reports confirm expansion is underway, but the larger unknown is how fast expansion will occur. Tonsor said USDA is projecting the cowherd may increase by 15 or 16 percent. In the longterm, that would keep the U.S. below 40 million cows recorded in the 1970's and it will take several more years to get numbers to that level.


Cowcalf producers have come off a strong year for cattle prices in 2014 and 2015 looks to be equally as profitable. That lends Tonsor to be very optimistic on cowherd expansion, probably more than his colleges. His logic is that cattlemen are entrepreneurs. For each dollar they have in the pocket, they will put that money back into the business.


"I tend to think every number you have in your head, you ought to add a million cows because we are going to bid away those returns," Tonsor said. "Any kind of commodity business, which is what the typical cow-calf producer is in, tends to do that over time and therefore I actually think those estimates from USDA might well be realized."


The other major factor to watch is the volatility in the feeder cattle market. Tonsor looks for that to stay for much of 2015. With feeder cattle worth more, there is more money on the table. He said when you have limits on trading through the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the ability to find the true price with a fixed dollar per head is harder when items are worth more.


Looking at 2015, Tonsor is concerned about feedlot returns with projections in the red for March and beyond for close-outs. He said if you believe those projections, then there will be pushback on feeder cattle values. He isn't worried about the floor dropping out, but there will be push back. The lower prices that started in December is probably the start of the pushback from feedyards that lead into the latest market volatility.


The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network- but is also a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show- and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.


   

   

Ron Hays features Glynn Tonsor of K-State on the Beef Buzz Program
right-click to download mp3

 

WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI

 

Beef News

  • January Cattle on Feed Report Three Percent Under Year Ago- Derrell Peel Says Tighter Supplies Will Be Around for Awhile  Mon, 23 Jan 2023 05:15:04 CST
  • Derrell Peel Talks Latest Cattle on Feed Report- Showing Fewer Cattle on Feed, Lighter Placements and Stronger Marketings.  Mon, 26 Dec 2022 08:19:00 CST
  • Kara Lee with Certified Angus Beef Tells Cattlemen 'Cut the Bull'  Fri, 23 Dec 2022 14:30:39 CST
  • Beef Checkoff Utilizes Digital Marketing Techniques to Interact with Consumers   Thu, 22 Dec 2022 16:02:51 CST
  • Beef Checkoff Research, Education, and Promotion Efforts Point Consumers to Beef  Wed, 21 Dec 2022 16:15:46 CST
  • OSU Economist Derrell Peel Expects US Beef Export Strength to Continue Into the New Year   Tue, 20 Dec 2022 08:00:35 CST
  • NPPC's Michael Formica Feeling Positive About Supreme Courts Upcoming Proposition 12 Decision  Mon, 05 Dec 2022 10:08:27 CST
  • NCBA Fights to Improve Marketing Options for Cattle Producers  Fri, 02 Dec 2022 09:58:28 CST
  • Chinese Consumers Continue to Grow Appetite for U.S. Beef  Thu, 01 Dec 2022 09:23:49 CST
  • Merck Creates Value for Producers and Consumers with Technology and Biopharmaceuticals   Wed, 30 Nov 2022 09:55:28 CST
  • NCBA’s Todd Wilkinson Ready to Fight Back Against Regulatory Overreach in the Cattle Industry   Tue, 29 Nov 2022 10:13:33 CST
  • NCBA and PLC Call ESA Listing Plan of Lesser Prairie Chicken Punitive for Cattle Producers in Southern Plains  Wed, 23 Nov 2022 14:51:02 CST
  • November Cattle on Feed Report Confirms October Pattern of Lower Placements and Tighter Cattle Numbers in Feedlots  Tue, 22 Nov 2022 05:07:02 CST
  • Turning the Corner- OSU's Derrell Peel Sees Tighter Cattle Inventories into 2023 in Latest Cattle on Feed Report  Mon, 21 Nov 2022 04:36:33 CST
  • Turning the Corner- OSU's Derrell Peel Sees Tighter Cattle Inventories into 2023 in Latest Cattle on Feed Report  Mon, 21 Nov 2022 04:27:40 CST
  • Midterm Elections to Set Stage for What Can Be Expected in 2023 Farm Bill  Mon, 07 Nov 2022 12:13:57 CST
  • USMEF's Dan Halstrom Remains Cautiously Optimistic about Strong Beef Demand Going Forward  Thu, 03 Nov 2022 09:35:46 CDT
  • Economic Factors Create Hesitancy in Beef Plant Expansion Plans  Wed, 02 Nov 2022 11:03:34 CDT
  • NCBA's Mike Simone Says Consumer Interest in Fake Meat is on the Decline  Tue, 01 Nov 2022 11:41:02 CDT
  • Beef Remains Valued Product for Consumers as it Allows Them to Stretch their Dollar  Mon, 31 Oct 2022 09:15:56 CDT
  • Hugh Aljoe Provides Methods to Begin and Maintain Good Land Stewardship  Fri, 28 Oct 2022 09:30:13 CDT
  • Implement Soil Health Practices Now to Increase Forage Production when Rains Come  Thu, 27 Oct 2022 15:14:07 CDT
  • Third Beef. It's What's For Dinner. 300 Promotes the Beef Industry on a National Level  Wed, 26 Oct 2022 15:32:23 CDT
  • Latest Cattle on Feed Report from USDA Implies Fewer Pounds of Beef Available in 2023   Tue, 25 Oct 2022 10:17:53 CDT
  • OSU's Derrell Peel- Lower Placements and Smaller On Feed Number Highlight October Cattle on Feed Report  Sun, 23 Oct 2022 12:45:37 CDT
  • Beef Checkoff Research Continues to Share Beef Sustainability Story with Consumers  Fri, 21 Oct 2022 09:23:36 CDT
  • Beef Checkoff Research Works to Ensure Consumers Beef is a Product They Can Trust  Thu, 20 Oct 2022 13:44:44 CDT
  • Odds for Significant Wheat Pasture Going Lower Daily in the Southern Plains  Wed, 19 Oct 2022 14:35:46 CDT
  • NCBA Weighs in on California's Proposition 12   Tue, 18 Oct 2022 11:32:24 CDT
  • 2022 Stockyards Steak Out Takes Oklahoma Beef to the Next Level  Mon, 17 Oct 2022 11:09:07 CDT
  • Holding Onto Your Cow Herd a Little Longer is Projected to Pay Off, says Randy Blach  Fri, 14 Oct 2022 08:14:05 CDT
  • Randy Blach Confident in Better Cattle Market Conditions Down the Road  Thu, 13 Oct 2022 09:43:02 CDT
  • No Imports or Exports Would Result in a Smaller U.S. Beef Cattle Industry  Wed, 12 Oct 2022 16:11:15 CDT
  • Derrell Peel Explains Why International Trade of Beef is Valuable  Tue, 11 Oct 2022 08:19:29 CDT
  • Animal Agriculture Hopeful for a Win as U.S. Supreme Court Looks at California's Proposition 12   Mon, 10 Oct 2022 09:26:17 CDT

  •  

       

    Ron salutes our daily email sponsors!

    Oklahoma Beef council Oklahoma Ag Credit Oklahoma Farm Bureau National Livestock Credit Ag Mediation Program P&K Equipment Oklahoma City Farm Show Union Mutual Stillwater Milling Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association KIS FUTURES, INC.
       
       
       
       
       

    Search OklahomaFarmReport.com

    © 2008-2024 Oklahoma Farm Report
    Email Ron   |   Newsletter Signup   |    Current Spots   |    Program Links

    WebReady powered by WireReady® Inc.