Oklahoma Farm Report masthead graphic with wheat on the left and cattle on the right.
Howdy Neighbors!
Ron Hays, Director of Farm and Ranch Programming, Radio Oklahoma Ag Network  |  2401 Exchange Ave, Suite F, Oklahoma City, Ok 73108  |  (405) 601-9211

advertisements
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Beef Buzz News


OSU Livestock Market Economist Derrell Peel Expects Slightly Bigger Beef Cow Number as of January First

Wed, 27 Dec 2017 08:25:13 CST

OSU Livestock Market Economist Derrell Peel Expects Slightly Bigger Beef Cow Number as of January First The annual U.S. cattle inventory numbers in the January report are eagerly anticipated, not only to confirm what happened to the nation’s beef cow herd in 2017 but for indications of what lies ahead in 2018.


Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Cooperative Extension livestock marketing specialist, said America’s beef cow herd began its recent expansion in 2014, growing 0.75 percent followed by more significant growth in 2015 of 2.95 percent and in 2016 at 3.46 percent. Peel is today's Beef Buzz guest- as he talks with Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays about what the next Beef Cow number may look like.


“From the January 2014 low of 29.1 million head, the herd has expanded by 2.1 million head to the January 2017 level of 31.2 million head,” he said. “There are numerous indicators beef cow herd expansion continued in 2017 but we won’t know for sure until the cattle inventory report issued by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service in late January.”


The potential for herd growth starts with available replacement heifers. On Jan. 1, 2017, some 6.4 million replacement heifers were reported, representing 20.6 percent of the beef cow inventory.


“This was the third-largest replacement heifer percentage, down slightly from the two prior years,” Peel said. “Of the total replacement heifers, 4 million were expected to calve in 2017. This was a record number of reported heifers calving since this data became available in 2001.”

Peel explains these numbers confirm considerable potential for herd expansion and indicated producer intentions to continue adding to cow inventories. The great unknown is whether producers adjusted their intentions during the year.

“Open replacement heifers can be easily diverted into feeder markets if producers’ expectations change,” he said.

Changes in the beef cow herd are a function of the pace of heifer retention relative to the pace of cull cow slaughter. Heifer slaughter provides a delayed indication of heifer retention. Year-to-date heifer slaughter through late November was up 12.3 percent year over year. This follows the jump in quarterly heifers on feed, up 10.6 percent in July and 13 percent year over year in October.

“Even with the increase in heifer slaughter, the ratio of steer-to-heifer slaughter remains well above historic levels,” Peel said. “Heifer slaughter was squeezed dramatically in 2015 and 2016. Although it is increasing, it has yet to return to normal levels relative to steer slaughter.”

Beef cow slaughter increased 10.1 percent in 2017 through late November. This follows a 13.7 percent year-over-year increase in cow slaughter in 2016.

“Part of the increase in cow slaughter was caused by herd growth since 2014,” Peel said. “As with heifer slaughter, beef cow slaughter was sharply reduced from 2014 through 2016 as a part of jumpstarting herd expansion.”

Net beef cow culling was a record low 7.6 percent in 2015. Sustained below-average culling rates in 2014 through 2016 were possible following above average culling rates from 2008 through 2013. This included drought-forced liquidation that removed many older cows and allowed a period of reduced culling as herd expansion began.

“If the current beef cow slaughter pace continues through the end of the year, the 2017 beef cow culling rate will be 9 percent, still below but close to the long term average of 9.6 percent,” Peel said. “In other words, the industry is returning to normal beef cow culling rates. Both heifer and beef cow slaughter are consistent with continued but slowing herd expansion.”

Peel believes there is little doubt herd expansion continued in 2017, albeit at a slower pace than 2016. The jump in heifer and beef cow slaughter both reflect a return to more typical relative slaughter rates.

“I’m currently estimating the 2018 beef cow herd will be up 1.5 to 2 percent over January 2017,” he said. “Expansion rates above or below this level are possible, though expansion above 2.5 percent is difficult to reconcile with current numbers.”


The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.



   
   

Ron Hays Beef Buzzes with Derrell Peel about how much the US Beef Cow Herd Has Grown in 2017
right-click to download mp3

 

WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI

 

Beef News

  • Despite the Noise on Trade Wars and Tariffs, US Beef Exports are Holding Their Own Says Jim Robb  Tue, 19 Jun 2018 10:46:25 CDT
  • Although Less Aggressive Compared to Last, 2018 Shaping Up Another Impressive Marketing Year  Mon, 18 Jun 2018 10:29:31 CDT
  • Beef Exports Continue to Impress with Another Record Setting Month, Despite All the Political Noise  Fri, 15 Jun 2018 11:59:33 CDT
  • NCBA Gives Senate Farm Bill a Thumbs Up Hopeful for Speedy Process of Approval Moving Forward  Thu, 14 Jun 2018 11:54:39 CDT
  • Dr. Glynn Tonsor of Kansas State Says the Rising Tide of Red Ink in Feedlots is Becoming Significant  Wed, 13 Jun 2018 10:11:53 CDT
  • Despite Consumers Growing Concern with Production Practices - Taste, Price, Convenience Still King  Tue, 12 Jun 2018 10:08:39 CDT
  • Putting the Smack-Down on Flies - Gregg Hanzlicek on Industry's Billion Dollar Problem of Fly Control  Mon, 11 Jun 2018 10:07:00 CDT
  • LMIC's Jim Robb Says Current Rate of Cow Slaughter Could Translate into More Optimism for Future  Fri, 08 Jun 2018 10:56:03 CDT
  • Strong Demand Still Driving US Beef Market, Though Mexico's Tariff Retaliations Could Put a Pin in It  Thu, 07 Jun 2018 12:07:56 CDT
  • Strong Demand Still Driving US Beef Market, Though Mexico's Tariff Retaliations Could Put a Pin in It  Thu, 07 Jun 2018 12:00:22 CDT
  • US Roundtable for Sustainable Beef's Metric System Put to the Test - Noble's Chad Ellis Explains  Wed, 06 Jun 2018 11:53:58 CDT
  • As Selection Tools Become More Sophisticated, Ranchers are Growing More Confident in Decisions  Tue, 05 Jun 2018 09:30:44 CDT
  • The Brains Behind Renowned RA Brown Ranch, Donnell Brown, Shares His Three Tips for Success  Mon, 04 Jun 2018 09:52:36 CDT
  • USRSB Chairwoman Says Consumer Worry Gives Industry Chance to Better Connect with Consumers  Fri, 01 Jun 2018 09:25:22 CDT
  • US Roundtable for Sustainable Beef Releases First-Ever National Framework for Beef Sustainability  Thu, 31 May 2018 14:17:11 CDT
  • As Summer Doldrums Loom, Producers Encouraged to Stay the Course for Fourth Quarter Rebound  Wed, 30 May 2018 10:24:27 CDT
  • No Big Surprises in Latest USDA Cattle on Feed Report, LMIC's Jim Robb Offers His Positive Analysis  Tue, 29 May 2018 10:00:41 CDT
  • What's Consumers' "Beef" with Beef? Consumer Panel Reveals Concerning Issues of Misinformation  Fri, 25 May 2018 09:29:22 CDT
  • Oklahoma Beef Industry Leader Weston Givens Offers His Takeaways from Recent Consumer Panel  Thu, 24 May 2018 11:04:29 CDT
  • As Australia Comes Back Online, the Need for a Permanent Trade Deal with Japan Becoming Critical  Wed, 23 May 2018 11:40:49 CDT
  • US-China Trade Tensions Seem to Ease Some Amid Stalled Threats of Tariff Retaliation, Trade War  Tue, 22 May 2018 10:29:46 CDT
  • Price of Beef Cows Falls to Historic Lows as Herd Expansion Starts to Plateau, So Says Randy Blach  Mon, 21 May 2018 10:04:24 CDT
  • Action Alert by NCBA- Call Your House Member and Urge a No Vote on Brat Blumenauer Amendment to 2018 Farm Bill  Fri, 18 May 2018 05:54:40 CDT
  • Are Your Cattle Getting Enough Water? Extension Specialist Justin Wagoner Shares His Summer Tips  Thu, 17 May 2018 11:30:32 CDT
  • While this Year's Beef Business Falls a Bit Short Compared to '17, It's Setting Us Up for a Strong 2019  Wed, 16 May 2018 11:50:00 CDT
  • Price of Hay Surges as US Livestock Industry Grapples with Tightest Hay Stock Supply Since 2013  Tue, 15 May 2018 11:23:07 CDT
  • NCBA Calls on USDA to Assert Jurisdiction Over 'Fake Meat' Regulation to Ensure Market Fairness  Mon, 14 May 2018 11:20:06 CDT
  • New Zoetis Implant, Synovex, Puts More Weight on Your Cattle and Less on Your Shoulders  Fri, 11 May 2018 14:23:31 CDT
  • OKC West Livestock Sale Raises $59,000 for Oklahoma Cattlemen's Foundation Wildfire Relief Fund  Thu, 10 May 2018 09:57:33 CDT
  • Persistent Drought Tightening Its Grip on Beef Cattle Producers Across the Southern Great Plains  Wed, 09 May 2018 10:29:58 CDT
  • As Smoke Clears, Derrell Peel Calculates $26.4M in Wildfire Damage to NW OK Cattle Operations  Tue, 08 May 2018 10:46:35 CDT
  • USRSB Chairwoman Says Consumer Worry Gives Industry Chance to Better Connect with Consumers  Mon, 07 May 2018 10:16:26 CDT
  • USRSB Chairwoman Says Consumer Worry Gives Industry Chance to Better Connect with Consumers  Mon, 07 May 2018 10:15:21 CDT
  • US Roundtable for Sustainable Beef Releases First-Ever National Framework for Beef Sustainability  Fri, 04 May 2018 10:02:34 CDT
  • NCBA's Jennifer Houston Says USRSB Consumer Insights Pinpoint Key Issues Industry Must Address  Thu, 03 May 2018 10:35:30 CDT

  •  

    Beef Buzz Archives

    Old Archives  |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013  |   2014  |   2015  |   2016  |   2017  |   Jan 18  |   Feb 18  |   Mar 18  |   Apr 18  |   May 18  |   Jun 18  |   Jul 18  |   Aug 18  |   Sep 18  |   Oct 18  |   Nov 18  |   Dec 18
       

    Ron salutes our daily email sponsors!

    Livestock Exchange Oklahoma Ag Credit Oklahoma Farm Bureau National Livestock Credit P&K Equipment Tulsa Farm Show Stillwater Milling American Farmers & Ranchers KIS FUTURES, INC. Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association

    Search OklahomaFarmReport.com

    Find more about Weather in Oklahoma City, OK

       
       
    © 2008-2018 Oklahoma Farm Report
    Email Ron   |   Newsletter Signup   |    Current Spots   |    Program Links

    WebReady powered by WireReady® Inc.