Oklahoma Farm Report masthead graphic with wheat on the left and cattle on the right.
Howdy Neighbors!
Ron Hays, Director of Farm and Ranch Programming, Radio Oklahoma Ag Network  |  2401 Exchange Ave, Suite F, Oklahoma City, Ok 73108  |  (405) 601-9211

advertisements
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Beef Buzz News


CattleFax Senior Analyst Kevin Good Predicts Large Cattle Supply and Strong Beef Demand in 2018

Fri, 02 Feb 2018 13:25:55 CST

CattleFax Senior Analyst Kevin Good Predicts Large Cattle Supply and Strong Beef Demand in 2018 CattleFax celebrated its 50th anniversary during the popular CattleFax Outlook Session at the 2018 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show. CattleFax Senior Analyst Kevin Good highlighted the industry’s profitability during 2017 and said the trend looks to continue into 2018.



In an interview with Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays following his presentation, Good explained that the U.S beef cow inventory increased 2.8 million head in four years, and an additional 200,000-400,000 head are expected to be added to the herd over the next few years. Good said there are growing supplies of protein coming to market during the year ahead, including large supplies of competing proteins, which will weigh on all beef prices.



“We have a bigger supply of all proteins ahead in 2018. For the past year we were very fortunate to have solid export volume,” said Good. “We are forecasting trade to increase year-over-year in 2018, but still, the rate of production is out-pacing the rate of exports.”



Although beef production is expected to increase to 27.5 billion pounds during 2018, Good said current consumer demand is expected to remain good and potentially increase as retail prices moderate. He said CattleFax is predicting beef to remain a strong competitor against other proteins.



“Demand is robust on all fronts. Domestically, retail demand is increasing and beef is being featured more in the consumer markets,” said Good. “The retail and foodservice industries are doing very well and the solid economy in the United States is one of the main drivers as unemployment rates continue to decline and per capita income rises.”



Good said even though beef demand is high, leverage will continue to be a challenge for the feedlot and packing segments as shackle space becomes increasingly constrained by rising slaughter rates. With the growth in production, Good said he anticipates lower, but still profitable price levels for the cow-calf segment, while feeders and backgrounders will see their margins narrow.



Input costs are expected to remain manageable, with grain prices expected to remain steady. According to CattleFax, yields will drive corn prices in 2018-19 marketing year with no significant changes anticipated in acreage or demand. Futures corn prices are projected to range from $3.25 to $3.95 per bushel as supplies remain adequate. With more livestock to feed in 2018 and the smallest acreage on record in 2017, CattleFax predicts hay prices will increase $10-$15 per ton with additional weather-related price risks.



Drought conditions have been spreading across the United States since last winter with the Southwest being impacted the most. Art Douglas, professor emeritus, Creighton University, predicts a possible transition from La Niña conditions to a weaker El Niño by summer. U.S. weather patterns over the next three months will be dictated by La Niña. However, equatorial warming could shift drought patterns across North America by late spring and summer.



During the session, CattleFax analysts predicted fed cattle prices lower than prior year levels, averaging $115 per hundredweight (cwt.). Good said fed cattle prices are likely to face resistance near the $130 level, with downside risk in the upper $90 range. He predicted bargaining position will continue to favor cattle processors and retailers, with profit margins at or above 2017 levels.



CattleFax projected 750-pound steers will average $1 lower than 2017 levels at $145/cwt., with a range from the upper $120s to $160/cwt. Meanwhile, U.S. average 550-pound steer calves will see a trading range from $170/cwt. at the spring high to an average price in the upper $130s, during the fall marketing season. For the full year, calf prices are expected to average $158/cwt.



Listen to Good further explain his analysis of current market trends in the cattle industry and his expectations for 2018, with Ron Hays, on today’s Beef Buzz.



The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.


Coverage of the 2018 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show is powered by Farm Data Services of Stillwater - click here - to learn more about how they can help your farm or ranch operation's bottom line in a variety of ways.





   



   



Hear Good explain his analysis of current market trends and expectations for the beef industry in 2018
right-click to download mp3

 

WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI

 

Beef News

  • Grilling Season is Upon Us - Beef Demand Expected to Climb as Markets Approach Seasonal Peaks  Tue, 26 Mar 2019 10:24:40 CDT
  • Higher Than Expected Placements Take Industry by Surprise in Latest USDA Cattle on Feed Report  Mon, 25 Mar 2019 11:52:24 CDT
  • Is Your Ranch Operation Not Performing Like It Should? May be Time for a New Management Plan  Fri, 22 Mar 2019 11:31:24 CDT
  • If Analysts Have it Right, USDA's March On Feed Report May Show First Inventory Decline in Years  Thu, 21 Mar 2019 15:12:42 CDT
  • Per Capita Meat Supplies May Back Off Slightly in 2019- Which Could Be Supportive of Cattle Prices  Wed, 20 Mar 2019 10:44:37 CDT
  • Cattle UpCycle Feedstuffs Not Usable by Humans- A Sustainable Success Story for the Beef Industry  Tue, 19 Mar 2019 08:38:28 CDT
  • Selecting for Leg and Hoof Structure- Dr. Jennifer Bormann Says a Genetic Baseline is Being Developed  Mon, 18 Mar 2019 09:02:37 CDT
  • NCBA Chief Vet Dr. Kathy Simmons Explains the Necessity of Responsible Antimicrobial Stewardship  Fri, 15 Mar 2019 11:34:50 CDT
  • BQA Program Highly Regarded as Producers' Most Important Tool to Ensure Quality Beef Production  Thu, 14 Mar 2019 12:48:31 CDT
  • 2018 an Exceptional Year for US Beef Exports Especially in Asian Market Despite Current Challenges  Wed, 13 Mar 2019 10:58:19 CDT
  • Meat Scientist Brad Morgan Unphased by Rise of Fake Meat, Says It's No Competition for Real Thing  Tue, 12 Mar 2019 12:01:16 CDT
  • Market Watcher Derrell Peel Says USDA On Feed Report Suggests Spring Weather Market Brewing  Mon, 11 Mar 2019 12:22:29 CDT
  • Beef Industry Claims Major Victory in Fake Meat Fight But NCBA's Colin Woodall Says War's Not Over  Fri, 08 Mar 2019 13:02:24 CST
  • If US-China Relations Fixed, Beef Demand Could Grow Exponentially - Unless Recession Gets in Way  Thu, 07 Mar 2019 11:32:46 CST
  • NCBA's Alisa Harrison Explains Why Checkoff Research is so Critically Important to the Beef Industry  Wed, 06 Mar 2019 14:25:56 CST
  • Industry Seeing a Return on Its Digital Investment - NCBA's Alisa Harrison Says Strategy is Working  Tue, 05 Mar 2019 13:05:18 CST
  • There's a New Expert in Town and His Name is Chuck- NCBA Formally Launches Chuck Knows Beef  Mon, 04 Mar 2019 12:14:30 CST
  • National Cattle Count Shows Slightly Bigger Total US Herd as of January First, 2019- Derrell Peel Sees No Surprises in Report  Fri, 01 Mar 2019 04:51:41 CST
  • NCBA’s Kevin Kester Urges Producers to Take a Stand For WOTUS, Submit Comments to EPA  Fri, 01 Mar 2019 07:05:06 CST
  • "Meat" Becoming a Relative Term as Market Continues to Grapple with Advent of Lab-Grown Protein  Wed, 27 Feb 2019 15:41:36 CST
  • American Angus Association President John Pfeiffer Talks Angus Link and Angus Source with Ron Hays  Tue, 26 Feb 2019 08:03:35 CST
  • Dan Thomson Reinforces Stance on Judicious Antibiotic Use, Cites Very Real Threat of Resistance  Tue, 26 Feb 2019 05:58:12 CST
  • K-State Vet Dr. Dan Thomson Argues Judicious Antibiotic Use Remains Essential to the Beef Industry  Fri, 22 Feb 2019 12:22:29 CST
  • American Hereford Assoc.'s Shane Bedwell Gives Us 'a Look Under the Hood' in Genetic Evaluation  Thu, 21 Feb 2019 10:22:47 CST
  • Hereford Association Overhauls Breed's Genetic Evaluation System, Leverages Its Value Programs  Wed, 20 Feb 2019 17:01:00 CST
  • "It's Not Going to Amount to a Hill of Beans What You Eat in Terms of Climate Change" - End Quote  Tue, 19 Feb 2019 11:30:49 CST
  • The Untold Story of the US Beef Industry - NCBA's Dr. Sara Place Adds "Upcycling" to the Narrative  Mon, 18 Feb 2019 16:22:50 CST
  • The Untold Story of the US Beef Industry - NCBA's Dr. Sara Place Adds "Upcycling" to the Narrative  Mon, 18 Feb 2019 12:19:41 CST
  • Market Watcher Derrell Peel Breaks Down Current Feed and Hay Situation- Bottom Line, We're Good  Fri, 15 Feb 2019 11:51:42 CST
  • Roadmap to Disease Traceback System Takes Shape, But Many Devilish Details Still Left to Iron Out  Thu, 14 Feb 2019 12:39:42 CST
  • USDA Lays Groundwork on Disease Traceback System as Industry Begins to Warm Up to the Idea  Wed, 13 Feb 2019 10:05:43 CST
  • USMEF's Dan Halstrom Says New Deals Like the USMCA Vital for Sustainable Long-Term Growth  Tue, 12 Feb 2019 11:08:40 CST
  • 2018 US Beef Export Sales Set to Break Record with an Estimated $8.5 Billion of Total Product Sold  Mon, 11 Feb 2019 10:30:48 CST
  • Can't Make Heads or Tails of ELDs, Hours of Service? No One Can... Allison Rivera Sets Us Straight  Fri, 08 Feb 2019 11:11:47 CST
  • Clock Ticking as USDA Plays Catch Up from Shutdown, Drags Its Feet on Implementing the Farm Bill  Thu, 07 Feb 2019 12:44:02 CST

  •  

    Beef Buzz Archives

    Old Archives  |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013  |   2014  |   2015  |   2016  |   2017  |   2018  |   Jan 19  |   Feb 19  |   Mar 19  |   Apr 19  |   May 19  |   Jun 19  |   Jul 19  |   Aug 19  |   Sep 19  |   Oct 19  |   Nov 19  |   Dec 19
       

    Ron salutes our daily email sponsors!

    Herbs Herb Oklahoma Ag Credit Oklahoma Farm Bureau National Livestock Credit P&K Equipment Oklahoma City Farm Show Stillwater Milling KIS FUTURES, INC. Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association

    Search OklahomaFarmReport.com


       
       
    © 2008-2019 Oklahoma Farm Report
    Email Ron   |   Newsletter Signup   |    Current Spots   |    Program Links

    WebReady powered by WireReady® Inc.