Oklahoma Farm Report masthead graphic with wheat on the left and cattle on the right.
Howdy Neighbors!
Ron Hays, Director of Farm and Ranch Programming, Radio Oklahoma Ag Network  |  2401 Exchange Ave, Suite F, Oklahoma City, Ok 73108  |  (405) 601-9211

advertisements
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Beef Buzz News


CattleFax Senior Analyst Kevin Good Predicts Large Cattle Supply and Strong Beef Demand in 2018

Fri, 02 Feb 2018 13:25:55 CST

CattleFax Senior Analyst Kevin Good Predicts Large Cattle Supply and Strong Beef Demand in 2018 CattleFax celebrated its 50th anniversary during the popular CattleFax Outlook Session at the 2018 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show. CattleFax Senior Analyst Kevin Good highlighted the industry’s profitability during 2017 and said the trend looks to continue into 2018.



In an interview with Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays following his presentation, Good explained that the U.S beef cow inventory increased 2.8 million head in four years, and an additional 200,000-400,000 head are expected to be added to the herd over the next few years. Good said there are growing supplies of protein coming to market during the year ahead, including large supplies of competing proteins, which will weigh on all beef prices.



“We have a bigger supply of all proteins ahead in 2018. For the past year we were very fortunate to have solid export volume,” said Good. “We are forecasting trade to increase year-over-year in 2018, but still, the rate of production is out-pacing the rate of exports.”



Although beef production is expected to increase to 27.5 billion pounds during 2018, Good said current consumer demand is expected to remain good and potentially increase as retail prices moderate. He said CattleFax is predicting beef to remain a strong competitor against other proteins.



“Demand is robust on all fronts. Domestically, retail demand is increasing and beef is being featured more in the consumer markets,” said Good. “The retail and foodservice industries are doing very well and the solid economy in the United States is one of the main drivers as unemployment rates continue to decline and per capita income rises.”



Good said even though beef demand is high, leverage will continue to be a challenge for the feedlot and packing segments as shackle space becomes increasingly constrained by rising slaughter rates. With the growth in production, Good said he anticipates lower, but still profitable price levels for the cow-calf segment, while feeders and backgrounders will see their margins narrow.



Input costs are expected to remain manageable, with grain prices expected to remain steady. According to CattleFax, yields will drive corn prices in 2018-19 marketing year with no significant changes anticipated in acreage or demand. Futures corn prices are projected to range from $3.25 to $3.95 per bushel as supplies remain adequate. With more livestock to feed in 2018 and the smallest acreage on record in 2017, CattleFax predicts hay prices will increase $10-$15 per ton with additional weather-related price risks.



Drought conditions have been spreading across the United States since last winter with the Southwest being impacted the most. Art Douglas, professor emeritus, Creighton University, predicts a possible transition from La Niña conditions to a weaker El Niño by summer. U.S. weather patterns over the next three months will be dictated by La Niña. However, equatorial warming could shift drought patterns across North America by late spring and summer.



During the session, CattleFax analysts predicted fed cattle prices lower than prior year levels, averaging $115 per hundredweight (cwt.). Good said fed cattle prices are likely to face resistance near the $130 level, with downside risk in the upper $90 range. He predicted bargaining position will continue to favor cattle processors and retailers, with profit margins at or above 2017 levels.



CattleFax projected 750-pound steers will average $1 lower than 2017 levels at $145/cwt., with a range from the upper $120s to $160/cwt. Meanwhile, U.S. average 550-pound steer calves will see a trading range from $170/cwt. at the spring high to an average price in the upper $130s, during the fall marketing season. For the full year, calf prices are expected to average $158/cwt.



Listen to Good further explain his analysis of current market trends in the cattle industry and his expectations for 2018, with Ron Hays, on today’s Beef Buzz.



The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.


Coverage of the 2018 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show is powered by Farm Data Services of Stillwater - click here - to learn more about how they can help your farm or ranch operation's bottom line in a variety of ways.





   



   



Hear Good explain his analysis of current market trends and expectations for the beef industry in 2018
right-click to download mp3

 

WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI

 

Beef News

  • CattleFax Has a Wealth of Market Information on Tap for Producers at Upcoming Cattle Convention  Wed, 12 Dec 2018 11:23:51 CST
  • NCBA's Kevin Kester Lights Fire Under USTR to Get US - Japan Trade Deal Negotiations Underway  Tue, 11 Dec 2018 11:12:38 CST
  • OKC-Based Kirkpatrick Foundation Raises Eyebrows with Not-So-Subtle Pro-Vegan Messages  Mon, 10 Dec 2018 12:18:30 CST
  • The Angus Cow- Unsung Hero of Certified Angus Beef  Sat, 08 Dec 2018 16:03:01 CST
  • Today's Beef Cattle Doing Better at Providing a Great Eating Experience Every Time for Consumers  Thu, 06 Dec 2018 19:55:13 CST
  • USMEF Chair-Elect Cevin Jones Says There is a Great Story to Tell Right Now in the Export Business  Wed, 05 Dec 2018 09:54:57 CST
  • Cameron Bruett of JBS Says Traceability Should be an Industry Priority, But Shouldn't Be Rushed  Tue, 04 Dec 2018 10:00:17 CST
  • Cameron Bruett of JBS-USA Addresses the Beef Industry's Problem with Perception vs. Reality  Mon, 03 Dec 2018 15:15:11 CST
  • Angus Association's New Angus Link Program to Highlight Breed's Superior Genetic, Profit Potential  Fri, 30 Nov 2018 09:45:09 CST
  • Former Chair John Pfeiffer Recounts the Certified Angus Beef Success Story - 40 Years in the Making  Thu, 29 Nov 2018 11:31:59 CST
  • Chelsea Good of the Livestock Marketing Association Weighs in on the Cattle Traceability Debate  Wed, 28 Nov 2018 10:25:24 CST
  • Chairwoman Dawn Caldwell Rebukes Critics' Claims About State Beef Council Federation's Work  Tue, 27 Nov 2018 10:08:29 CST
  • Breaking Down the Dollars and Cents with Federation of State Beef Councils Chair Dawn Caldwell  Mon, 26 Nov 2018 10:38:52 CST
  • Favorable Numbers in Bullish Cattle on Feed Report Suggests Continued Currency in Beef Markets  Fri, 23 Nov 2018 11:07:02 CST
  • DOT Ready to Bend Its Hours of Service Rule for Livestock Haulers, Thanks to LMA Negotiations  Wed, 21 Nov 2018 10:20:47 CST
  • NCBA Sets Its Expectations Low for Congress as the Tide of Power Shifts to Democrats' Control  Tue, 20 Nov 2018 10:25:25 CST
  • Back to Work - NCBA's Colin Woodall Offers Fake Meat, WOTUS Brief as Dust Settles on Midterms  Mon, 19 Nov 2018 13:18:17 CST
  • CME's Efforts Starting to Pay Off as Benefits of Work to Improve Cattle Contracts Becomes Apparent  Fri, 16 Nov 2018 10:52:03 CST
  • NCBA's President-Elect Jennifer Houston Jumps into the Animal ID Disease Traceability Discussion  Thu, 15 Nov 2018 12:44:25 CST
  • Year-to-Date Slaughter Numbers Suggest a Rapid Deceleration in the US Beef Cow Herd Expansion  Wed, 14 Nov 2018 10:11:39 CST
  • Promising Pasture Conditions Spark Green Fever in Cattle Country as Producers Buy Up Stockers  Tue, 13 Nov 2018 10:46:44 CST
  • Animal Rights Activists Stoop to Exploiting Religious Beliefs and Manipulating Data to Further Cause  Mon, 12 Nov 2018 11:38:04 CST
  • Activists Succeed in Passing More Restrictions on Production Ag, Bringing Them Closer to Real Goal  Fri, 09 Nov 2018 11:37:42 CST
  • NCBA Lobbyist Colin Woodall Sees Action in the Lame Duck on the 2018 Farm Bill  Fri, 09 Nov 2018 05:14:18 CST
  • Ag Sec. Sonny Perdue Maintains USDA Authority Over 'Fake Meat,' But Says FDA will Have a Role  Wed, 07 Nov 2018 22:12:23 CST
  • Certified Angus Beef Faces Its Next Big Hurdle- Raising the Bar on Consumer Trust to the Next Level  Tue, 06 Nov 2018 11:30:16 CST
  • Certified Angus Beef's John Stika Says Brand's 40 Years of Success is Amazing, Continues to Grow  Mon, 05 Nov 2018 14:26:36 CST
  • Oklahoma Wheat Pastures Look Promising for Grazing this Winter - Just as Soon as They Dry Out  Fri, 02 Nov 2018 10:50:22 CDT
  • Zombie WOTUS Rises from the Dead in Carolina Court Case- NCBA Fighting to Return It to the Grave  Thu, 01 Nov 2018 10:01:25 CDT
  • USDA Undersecretary Greg Ibach Shares Vision for a National Beef Production Traceability System  Wed, 31 Oct 2018 09:50:35 CDT
  • Beef Demand Situation Looks Good by the Data, But Outside Threats Could Hinder Future Success  Tue, 30 Oct 2018 10:06:56 CDT
  • Consumers Sending Market Clear Message: They Want High-Quality Beef and are Willing to Pay for It  Mon, 29 Oct 2018 10:40:48 CDT
  • NCBA Fights Back on FDA's Challenge of USDA's Authority Over Fake Meat - Calls Industry to Action  Fri, 26 Oct 2018 09:58:16 CDT
  • What's Good for the Goose is Not Necessarily Good for the Gander-RCALF's Bill Bullard on Mandates  Thu, 25 Oct 2018 10:30:38 CDT
  • R-CALF CEO Bill Bullard Sets Record Straight on Group's Alleged Ties to Human Society of the US  Wed, 24 Oct 2018 10:26:14 CDT

  •  

    Beef Buzz Archives

    Old Archives  |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013  |   2014  |   2015  |   2016  |   2017  |   Jan 18  |   Feb 18  |   Mar 18  |   Apr 18  |   May 18  |   Jun 18  |   Jul 18  |   Aug 18  |   Sep 18  |   Oct 18  |   Nov 18  |   Dec 18
       

    Ron salutes our daily email sponsors!

    Livestock Exchange Oklahoma Ag Credit Oklahoma Farm Bureau National Livestock Credit P&K Equipment Tulsa Farm Show Stillwater Milling KIS FUTURES, INC. Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association

    Search OklahomaFarmReport.com

    Find more about Weather in Oklahoma City, OK

       
       
    © 2008-2018 Oklahoma Farm Report
    Email Ron   |   Newsletter Signup   |    Current Spots   |    Program Links

    WebReady powered by WireReady® Inc.