Beef Buzz News
Year-to-Date Slaughter Numbers Suggest a Rapid Deceleration in the US Beef Cow Herd Expansion
Wed, 14 Nov 2018 10:07:56 CST
When you break down the numbers of cattle being processed or slaughtered here in 2018, it tells an interesting story - so says Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel. He explained the breakdown of current slaughter picture with Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays.
"There's a very different story here. We can look at overall cattle slaughter and see it is up about 2.7 percent for the year to date. And, that's about what it will stay on a year-over-year basis as we finish out the year," Peel said. "But, when you look at the different classes you get very different stories. Steer slaughter has been on of the harder things to get a handle on this year."
According to Peel's analysis as described in his article in this week's Cow/Calf Corner newsletter, "steer slaughter continues to run below year ago levels so far this year. This despite the fact that the quarterly feedlot inventories have shown more steers on feed in 2018 compared to last year. For the year to date, steer slaughter is about one percent below last year but in the last four weeks has averaged very close to year ago levels. Steer slaughter has averaged 51.6 percent of total cattle slaughter so far this year, down from 52.9 percent of total cattle slaughter in 2017. As heifer and cow slaughter return to normal levels, steer slaughter will move closer to the long-term average of 50.6 percent of total slaughter.
"Heifer slaughter so far this year is averaging about seven percent above year ago levels with smaller year over year increases in recent weeks pulling the year to date total down to a smaller increase," he continues. "In the last four weeks, heifer slaughter has averaged just 1.5 percent over year earlier levels. Heifer slaughter thus far in 2018 has averaged 27.8 percent of total cattle slaughter, up from 27.2 percent in 2017. As heifer retention continues to slow, heifer slaughter will approach the long-term average just under 30 percent of total cattle slaughter.
"Total cow slaughter is up 7.3 percent year to date with beef cow slaughter up 10.5 percent year over year as beef cow culling returns to long term average levels. Dairy cow slaughter has moved higher as months of poor dairy economics have pushed the dairy sector to reduce cow numbers somewhat," Peel concluded. "Dairy cow slaughter is currently up 4.3 percent year over year for the year to date. Cow slaughter is averaging 18.9 percent of total cattle slaughter so far in 2018 compared to a long-term average of 17.7 percent of total slaughter. Cow carcass weights are averaging nearly five pounds heavier year over year with more dairy cows adding to cow carcass weights."
"You put it all together and we're going to see an increase in slaughter," he said, "but sort of different things happening across the board in the different sectors."
Based on the data available, it is Peel's impression that these numbers indicate that the US beef cow herd has probably expanded slightly for the year and expects the 2019 reports to show an increase of as much as a half a percent perhaps. However, he says they also strongly indicate that expansion has slowed rapidly and believes that 2019 will mark the peak in overall herd expansion.
Listen to Peel breakdown the numbers to better understand the overall slaughter picture right now, on today's Beef Buzz.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
Hear Peel breakdown the numbers to better understand the overall slaughter picture right now, below.
right-click to download mp3
WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI
Beef News
January Cattle on Feed Report Three Percent Under Year Ago- Derrell Peel Says Tighter Supplies Will Be Around for Awhile Mon, 23 Jan 2023 05:15:04 CST
Derrell Peel Talks Latest Cattle on Feed Report- Showing Fewer Cattle on Feed, Lighter Placements and Stronger Marketings. Mon, 26 Dec 2022 08:19:00 CST
Kara Lee with Certified Angus Beef Tells Cattlemen 'Cut the Bull' Fri, 23 Dec 2022 14:30:39 CST
Beef Checkoff Utilizes Digital Marketing Techniques to Interact with Consumers Thu, 22 Dec 2022 16:02:51 CST
Beef Checkoff Research, Education, and Promotion Efforts Point Consumers to Beef Wed, 21 Dec 2022 16:15:46 CST
OSU Economist Derrell Peel Expects US Beef Export Strength to Continue Into the New Year Tue, 20 Dec 2022 08:00:35 CST
NPPC's Michael Formica Feeling Positive About Supreme Courts Upcoming Proposition 12 Decision Mon, 05 Dec 2022 10:08:27 CST
NCBA Fights to Improve Marketing Options for Cattle Producers Fri, 02 Dec 2022 09:58:28 CST
Chinese Consumers Continue to Grow Appetite for U.S. Beef Thu, 01 Dec 2022 09:23:49 CST
Merck Creates Value for Producers and Consumers with Technology and Biopharmaceuticals Wed, 30 Nov 2022 09:55:28 CST
NCBA’s Todd Wilkinson Ready to Fight Back Against Regulatory Overreach in the Cattle Industry Tue, 29 Nov 2022 10:13:33 CST
NCBA and PLC Call ESA Listing Plan of Lesser Prairie Chicken Punitive for Cattle Producers in Southern Plains Wed, 23 Nov 2022 14:51:02 CST
November Cattle on Feed Report Confirms October Pattern of Lower Placements and Tighter Cattle Numbers in Feedlots Tue, 22 Nov 2022 05:07:02 CST
Turning the Corner- OSU's Derrell Peel Sees Tighter Cattle Inventories into 2023 in Latest Cattle on Feed Report Mon, 21 Nov 2022 04:36:33 CST
Turning the Corner- OSU's Derrell Peel Sees Tighter Cattle Inventories into 2023 in Latest Cattle on Feed Report Mon, 21 Nov 2022 04:27:40 CST
Midterm Elections to Set Stage for What Can Be Expected in 2023 Farm Bill Mon, 07 Nov 2022 12:13:57 CST
USMEF's Dan Halstrom Remains Cautiously Optimistic about Strong Beef Demand Going Forward Thu, 03 Nov 2022 09:35:46 CDT
Economic Factors Create Hesitancy in Beef Plant Expansion Plans Wed, 02 Nov 2022 11:03:34 CDT
NCBA's Mike Simone Says Consumer Interest in Fake Meat is on the Decline Tue, 01 Nov 2022 11:41:02 CDT
Beef Remains Valued Product for Consumers as it Allows Them to Stretch their Dollar Mon, 31 Oct 2022 09:15:56 CDT
Hugh Aljoe Provides Methods to Begin and Maintain Good Land Stewardship Fri, 28 Oct 2022 09:30:13 CDT
Implement Soil Health Practices Now to Increase Forage Production when Rains Come Thu, 27 Oct 2022 15:14:07 CDT
Third Beef. It's What's For Dinner. 300 Promotes the Beef Industry on a National Level Wed, 26 Oct 2022 15:32:23 CDT
Latest Cattle on Feed Report from USDA Implies Fewer Pounds of Beef Available in 2023 Tue, 25 Oct 2022 10:17:53 CDT
OSU's Derrell Peel- Lower Placements and Smaller On Feed Number Highlight October Cattle on Feed Report Sun, 23 Oct 2022 12:45:37 CDT
Beef Checkoff Research Continues to Share Beef Sustainability Story with Consumers Fri, 21 Oct 2022 09:23:36 CDT
Beef Checkoff Research Works to Ensure Consumers Beef is a Product They Can Trust Thu, 20 Oct 2022 13:44:44 CDT
Odds for Significant Wheat Pasture Going Lower Daily in the Southern Plains Wed, 19 Oct 2022 14:35:46 CDT
NCBA Weighs in on California's Proposition 12 Tue, 18 Oct 2022 11:32:24 CDT
2022 Stockyards Steak Out Takes Oklahoma Beef to the Next Level Mon, 17 Oct 2022 11:09:07 CDT
Holding Onto Your Cow Herd a Little Longer is Projected to Pay Off, says Randy Blach Fri, 14 Oct 2022 08:14:05 CDT
Randy Blach Confident in Better Cattle Market Conditions Down the Road Thu, 13 Oct 2022 09:43:02 CDT
No Imports or Exports Would Result in a Smaller U.S. Beef Cattle Industry Wed, 12 Oct 2022 16:11:15 CDT
Derrell Peel Explains Why International Trade of Beef is Valuable Tue, 11 Oct 2022 08:19:29 CDT
Animal Agriculture Hopeful for a Win as U.S. Supreme Court Looks at California's Proposition 12 Mon, 10 Oct 2022 09:26:17 CDT
