Beef Buzz News
Year-to-Date Slaughter Numbers Suggest a Rapid Deceleration in the US Beef Cow Herd Expansion
Wed, 14 Nov 2018 10:07:56 CST
When you break down the numbers of cattle being processed or slaughtered here in 2018, it tells an interesting story - so says Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel. He explained the breakdown of current slaughter picture with Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays.
Hear Peel breakdown the numbers to better understand the overall slaughter picture right now, below.
“There’s a very different story here. We can look at overall cattle slaughter and see it is up about 2.7 percent for the year to date. And, that’s about what it will stay on a year-over-year basis as we finish out the year,” Peel said. “But, when you look at the different classes you get very different stories. Steer slaughter has been on of the harder things to get a handle on this year.”
According to Peel’s analysis as described in his article in this week’s Cow/Calf Corner newsletter, "steer slaughter continues to run below year ago levels so far this year. This despite the fact that the quarterly feedlot inventories have shown more steers on feed in 2018 compared to last year. For the year to date, steer slaughter is about one percent below last year but in the last four weeks has averaged very close to year ago levels. Steer slaughter has averaged 51.6 percent of total cattle slaughter so far this year, down from 52.9 percent of total cattle slaughter in 2017. As heifer and cow slaughter return to normal levels, steer slaughter will move closer to the long-term average of 50.6 percent of total slaughter.
"Heifer slaughter so far this year is averaging about seven percent above year ago levels with smaller year over year increases in recent weeks pulling the year to date total down to a smaller increase,” he continues. “In the last four weeks, heifer slaughter has averaged just 1.5 percent over year earlier levels. Heifer slaughter thus far in 2018 has averaged 27.8 percent of total cattle slaughter, up from 27.2 percent in 2017. As heifer retention continues to slow, heifer slaughter will approach the long-term average just under 30 percent of total cattle slaughter.
"Total cow slaughter is up 7.3 percent year to date with beef cow slaughter up 10.5 percent year over year as beef cow culling returns to long term average levels. Dairy cow slaughter has moved higher as months of poor dairy economics have pushed the dairy sector to reduce cow numbers somewhat,” Peel concluded. “Dairy cow slaughter is currently up 4.3 percent year over year for the year to date. Cow slaughter is averaging 18.9 percent of total cattle slaughter so far in 2018 compared to a long-term average of 17.7 percent of total slaughter. Cow carcass weights are averaging nearly five pounds heavier year over year with more dairy cows adding to cow carcass weights.”
“You put it all together and we’re going to see an increase in slaughter,” he said, “but sort of different things happening across the board in the different sectors.”
Based on the data available, it is Peel’s impression that these numbers indicate that the US beef cow herd has probably expanded slightly for the year and expects the 2019 reports to show an increase of as much as a half a percent perhaps. However, he says they also strongly indicate that expansion has slowed rapidly and believes that 2019 will mark the peak in overall herd expansion.
Listen to Peel breakdown the numbers to better understand the overall slaughter picture right now, on today’s Beef Buzz.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
right-click to download mp3
WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI
Cattle Industry Claims Key Victories in New Farm Bill with Funding Provisions for FMD Bank and EQIP Fri, 14 Dec 2018 10:36:58 CST
Pressure from Fundamentals, Nonstop Muddy Feedlot Conditions Finally Catches Up to the Markets Thu, 13 Dec 2018 12:12:56 CST
Pressure from Fundamentals, Nonstop Muddy Feedlot Conditions Finally Catches Up to the Markets Thu, 13 Dec 2018 12:04:02 CST
CattleFax Has a Wealth of Market Information on Tap for Producers at Upcoming Cattle Convention Wed, 12 Dec 2018 11:23:51 CST
NCBA's Kevin Kester Lights Fire Under USTR to Get US - Japan Trade Deal Negotiations Underway Tue, 11 Dec 2018 11:12:38 CST
OKC-Based Kirkpatrick Foundation Raises Eyebrows with Not-So-Subtle Pro-Vegan Messages Mon, 10 Dec 2018 12:18:30 CST
The Angus Cow- Unsung Hero of Certified Angus Beef Sat, 08 Dec 2018 16:03:01 CST
Today's Beef Cattle Doing Better at Providing a Great Eating Experience Every Time for Consumers Thu, 06 Dec 2018 19:55:13 CST
USMEF Chair-Elect Cevin Jones Says There is a Great Story to Tell Right Now in the Export Business Wed, 05 Dec 2018 09:54:57 CST
Cameron Bruett of JBS Says Traceability Should be an Industry Priority, But Shouldn't Be Rushed Tue, 04 Dec 2018 10:00:17 CST
Cameron Bruett of JBS-USA Addresses the Beef Industry's Problem with Perception vs. Reality Mon, 03 Dec 2018 15:15:11 CST
Angus Association's New Angus Link Program to Highlight Breed's Superior Genetic, Profit Potential Fri, 30 Nov 2018 09:45:09 CST
Former Chair John Pfeiffer Recounts the Certified Angus Beef Success Story - 40 Years in the Making Thu, 29 Nov 2018 11:31:59 CST
Chelsea Good of the Livestock Marketing Association Weighs in on the Cattle Traceability Debate Wed, 28 Nov 2018 10:25:24 CST
Chairwoman Dawn Caldwell Rebukes Critics' Claims About State Beef Council Federation's Work Tue, 27 Nov 2018 10:08:29 CST
Breaking Down the Dollars and Cents with Federation of State Beef Councils Chair Dawn Caldwell Mon, 26 Nov 2018 10:38:52 CST
Favorable Numbers in Bullish Cattle on Feed Report Suggests Continued Currency in Beef Markets Fri, 23 Nov 2018 11:07:02 CST
DOT Ready to Bend Its Hours of Service Rule for Livestock Haulers, Thanks to LMA Negotiations Wed, 21 Nov 2018 10:20:47 CST
NCBA Sets Its Expectations Low for Congress as the Tide of Power Shifts to Democrats' Control Tue, 20 Nov 2018 10:25:25 CST
Back to Work - NCBA's Colin Woodall Offers Fake Meat, WOTUS Brief as Dust Settles on Midterms Mon, 19 Nov 2018 13:18:17 CST
CME's Efforts Starting to Pay Off as Benefits of Work to Improve Cattle Contracts Becomes Apparent Fri, 16 Nov 2018 10:52:03 CST
NCBA's President-Elect Jennifer Houston Jumps into the Animal ID Disease Traceability Discussion Thu, 15 Nov 2018 12:44:25 CST
Year-to-Date Slaughter Numbers Suggest a Rapid Deceleration in the US Beef Cow Herd Expansion Wed, 14 Nov 2018 10:11:39 CST
Promising Pasture Conditions Spark Green Fever in Cattle Country as Producers Buy Up Stockers Tue, 13 Nov 2018 10:46:44 CST
Animal Rights Activists Stoop to Exploiting Religious Beliefs and Manipulating Data to Further Cause Mon, 12 Nov 2018 11:38:04 CST
Activists Succeed in Passing More Restrictions on Production Ag, Bringing Them Closer to Real Goal Fri, 09 Nov 2018 11:37:42 CST
NCBA Lobbyist Colin Woodall Sees Action in the Lame Duck on the 2018 Farm Bill Fri, 09 Nov 2018 05:14:18 CST
Ag Sec. Sonny Perdue Maintains USDA Authority Over 'Fake Meat,' But Says FDA will Have a Role Wed, 07 Nov 2018 22:12:23 CST
Certified Angus Beef Faces Its Next Big Hurdle- Raising the Bar on Consumer Trust to the Next Level Tue, 06 Nov 2018 11:30:16 CST
Certified Angus Beef's John Stika Says Brand's 40 Years of Success is Amazing, Continues to Grow Mon, 05 Nov 2018 14:26:36 CST
Oklahoma Wheat Pastures Look Promising for Grazing this Winter - Just as Soon as They Dry Out Fri, 02 Nov 2018 10:50:22 CDT
Zombie WOTUS Rises from the Dead in Carolina Court Case- NCBA Fighting to Return It to the Grave Thu, 01 Nov 2018 10:01:25 CDT
USDA Undersecretary Greg Ibach Shares Vision for a National Beef Production Traceability System Wed, 31 Oct 2018 09:50:35 CDT
Beef Demand Situation Looks Good by the Data, But Outside Threats Could Hinder Future Success Tue, 30 Oct 2018 10:06:56 CDT
Consumers Sending Market Clear Message: They Want High-Quality Beef and are Willing to Pay for It Mon, 29 Oct 2018 10:40:48 CDT