Beef Buzz News
Year-to-Date Slaughter Numbers Suggest a Rapid Deceleration in the US Beef Cow Herd Expansion
Wed, 14 Nov 2018 10:07:56 CST
When you break down the numbers of cattle being processed or slaughtered here in 2018, it tells an interesting story - so says Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel. He explained the breakdown of current slaughter picture with Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays.
Hear Peel breakdown the numbers to better understand the overall slaughter picture right now, below.
“There’s a very different story here. We can look at overall cattle slaughter and see it is up about 2.7 percent for the year to date. And, that’s about what it will stay on a year-over-year basis as we finish out the year,” Peel said. “But, when you look at the different classes you get very different stories. Steer slaughter has been on of the harder things to get a handle on this year.”
According to Peel’s analysis as described in his article in this week’s Cow/Calf Corner newsletter, "steer slaughter continues to run below year ago levels so far this year. This despite the fact that the quarterly feedlot inventories have shown more steers on feed in 2018 compared to last year. For the year to date, steer slaughter is about one percent below last year but in the last four weeks has averaged very close to year ago levels. Steer slaughter has averaged 51.6 percent of total cattle slaughter so far this year, down from 52.9 percent of total cattle slaughter in 2017. As heifer and cow slaughter return to normal levels, steer slaughter will move closer to the long-term average of 50.6 percent of total slaughter.
"Heifer slaughter so far this year is averaging about seven percent above year ago levels with smaller year over year increases in recent weeks pulling the year to date total down to a smaller increase,” he continues. “In the last four weeks, heifer slaughter has averaged just 1.5 percent over year earlier levels. Heifer slaughter thus far in 2018 has averaged 27.8 percent of total cattle slaughter, up from 27.2 percent in 2017. As heifer retention continues to slow, heifer slaughter will approach the long-term average just under 30 percent of total cattle slaughter.
"Total cow slaughter is up 7.3 percent year to date with beef cow slaughter up 10.5 percent year over year as beef cow culling returns to long term average levels. Dairy cow slaughter has moved higher as months of poor dairy economics have pushed the dairy sector to reduce cow numbers somewhat,” Peel concluded. “Dairy cow slaughter is currently up 4.3 percent year over year for the year to date. Cow slaughter is averaging 18.9 percent of total cattle slaughter so far in 2018 compared to a long-term average of 17.7 percent of total slaughter. Cow carcass weights are averaging nearly five pounds heavier year over year with more dairy cows adding to cow carcass weights.”
“You put it all together and we’re going to see an increase in slaughter,” he said, “but sort of different things happening across the board in the different sectors.”
Based on the data available, it is Peel’s impression that these numbers indicate that the US beef cow herd has probably expanded slightly for the year and expects the 2019 reports to show an increase of as much as a half a percent perhaps. However, he says they also strongly indicate that expansion has slowed rapidly and believes that 2019 will mark the peak in overall herd expansion.
Listen to Peel breakdown the numbers to better understand the overall slaughter picture right now, on today’s Beef Buzz.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
right-click to download mp3
WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI
GIPSA Rule Resurfaces as DOJ Orders Formal Rulemaking Process – NCBA Fighting for Common Sense Solution Fri, 16 Aug 2019 09:41:54 CDT
Have You Heard? Operating as a BQA Certified Producer can Command Up to $17/Head More for Your Cattle Thu, 15 Aug 2019 11:48:16 CDT
Study Shows Cattle from Beef Quality Assurance Certified Producers Command Higher Premium at Auction Wed, 14 Aug 2019 15:24:15 CDT
Tyson Packing Plant Fire Stirs Dramatic Industry Reaction and Speculation with Pronounced Uncertainty Tue, 13 Aug 2019 10:20:31 CDT
USMEF's Dan Halstrom on the Strength of US Beef Exports to Japan Despite Its Tariff Disadvantage Mon, 12 Aug 2019 12:25:23 CDT
Missouri's Meat Labeling Law Draws Backlash from Alternative Meat Proponents Fri, 09 Aug 2019 14:16:29 CDT
Fall Calf Market Expected to be Driven by Higher Corn Prices with Limited Potential for Upside Thu, 08 Aug 2019 10:01:27 CDT
Corn Conundrum Fuels Speculation About Future Profitability in the Cattle Markets Wed, 07 Aug 2019 11:54:46 CDT
WOTUS War Nearly Won as Rule's Final Repeal Expected to be Made Official This August Tue, 06 Aug 2019 12:11:32 CDT
Everything You Need to Know About Trump's Deal with the EU to Increase Market Access for US Beef Mon, 05 Aug 2019 12:18:44 CDT
Blach Says Producers Reaping the Benefits of Their Focus on Better Beef Quality for Today's Consumers Fri, 02 Aug 2019 14:09:02 CDT
CattleFax's Randy Blach Sees Industry Making "Massive Change" in How It Handles Risk Management Thu, 01 Aug 2019 11:04:24 CDT
Checkoff's Impact Continues to Climb - Study Shows Industry Receives $11.91 for Every Dollar Spent Wed, 31 Jul 2019 11:57:16 CDT
As Beef Industry Explores the Marketing Benefits of Traceability, BQA's Potential is Starting to Gain Attention Tue, 30 Jul 2019 10:17:57 CDT
NCBA President Jennifer Houston on the State of the Cattle Industry, Highlights Potential Opportunities Mon, 29 Jul 2019 12:06:11 CDT
CBB Chair Chuck Coffey Explains the Who, Why, Where and How of the Beef Checkoff’s Strategic Plan Fri, 26 Jul 2019 11:21:49 CDT
Beef Board Chair Chuck Coffey Returns from the Orient with a New Appreciation for the Beef Checkoff Thu, 25 Jul 2019 11:33:26 CDT
Fake Meat Pushers Getting Bolder, More Aggressive - NCBA's Dannielle Beck Pushes Back on Their Claims Wed, 24 Jul 2019 10:21:08 CDT
US Cattle Inventory Plateaus, Suggesting Continued Market Stability Contingent on Strong Demand Tue, 23 Jul 2019 10:43:52 CDT
OSU's Derrell Peel Says Latest Cattle on Feed Report was Well Anticipated - No Surprises in This Report Mon, 22 Jul 2019 11:37:40 CDT
Update- R-CALF CEO Bill Bullard Responds to Our Monday Beef Buzz Regarding His Call for Mandatory COOL Fri, 19 Jul 2019 12:37:52 CDT
Animal Activists Target Christian Faith and Church Communities to Advance Their Meatless Agenda Fri, 19 Jul 2019 09:46:30 CDT
Author Discusses New Book That Examines What The Bible Has to Say About Eating and Using Animals Thu, 18 Jul 2019 10:45:33 CDT
Producers Face Many Considerations as Feeder Markets Come Under Pressure of Rising Feed Costs Wed, 17 Jul 2019 11:04:44 CDT
OSU Market Watcher Derrell Peel Shares His Observations from the Countryside on the Cattle Industry Tue, 16 Jul 2019 09:57:41 CDT
R-CALF CEO Bill Bullard in Oklahoma to Promote a Pro-MCOOL Message to Local Beef Producers Mon, 15 Jul 2019 11:31:25 CDT
Greenhouse Gas Guru, Mitloehner, Says Cow-Fart Protestors Spread More Manure than Beef Industry Fri, 12 Jul 2019 14:15:28 CDT
LMIC's Jim Robb Says US Beef Exports Finally Catch Up to Speed While Imports are Larger Than Expected Thu, 11 Jul 2019 10:39:43 CDT
Boxed-Beef Trade's Surprising Performance Underpinning Current Strength in the Marketplace Wed, 10 Jul 2019 10:28:23 CDT
New Web-Based Sire Selection Tool Promises Easier Decision-Making with Herd Specific Optimization Tue, 09 Jul 2019 10:25:26 CDT
Feeling Buried by All the EPDs Out There? University of Nebraska's Matt Spangler May be Able to Help Mon, 08 Jul 2019 11:54:46 CDT
What Do Consumers Really Think About Beef? They Love It... They Just Don't Know Much About It Fri, 05 Jul 2019 10:32:55 CDT
NCBA's Head of Market Research Rick Husted Talks Consumer Perceptions of Beef and Beef Production Wed, 03 Jul 2019 10:24:30 CDT
Industry Association Spearheads Effort to Create Recovery Tool for Producers Victim of Dealer Default Tue, 02 Jul 2019 10:34:22 CDT
BQA Program Continues to Benefit, Improve US Beef Industry as More Producers Commit to Quality Fri, 28 Jun 2019 10:21:34 CDT