Beef Buzz News
Cattle Market Looks Strong as We Head for the 2019 Finish Line- Ron Hays Talks Specifics WIth Don Close
Fri, 15 Nov 2019 07:21:28
Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays caught up with Don Close, Senior Animal Protein Analyst with Rabo Agri Finance at the National Association of Farm Broadcaster's Convention in Kansas City to talk markets. The Cattle markets in recent weeks have been really good. Close contends "Its been an incredible rally. You know we started off the mid-summer/late summer with the fire and we were so demoralized there for 2-4 weeks, but demand in the market, both domestic and even in the export market has just continued to be phenomenal"
When we think about the aftermath of the fire (at the Kansas Tyson plant) we have almost been dating things as "pre-fire" and "Post fire" and it seems there was a bit of an overreaction on the wholesale boxed beef trade- which spiked higher right after the fire as retailers and even Tyson scrambled to secure supplies just ahead of the Labor Day holiday. Close says while boxed beef prices went up- cash cattle prices dropped but "We thought that with the 6% decline in fed slaughter capacity, that the decline in fed cattle prices was really within line of the elasticity expectations."
If we had a surprise in that fire situation it was right in front of those Labor Day purchases because retailers were short-bought and cutout values actually ran higher. Close adds "The Post fire activity of the packers, I think with Tyson shipping cattle to other locations and the other packers picking up the slaughter rate, especially on Saturdays, everybody pitched in a did a really good job of keeping the market afloat"
Close says the other surprise in the market is that there is so much of Australia-New Zealand product going to China and South East Asia instead of coming to the United States. So as a result Close says "That has forced, or enabled, depends on how you look at it, but its caused the U.S. patty manufacturers to be buying whole muscle cuts from the chuck and the round to offset that supply and that has been the huge driver in cutup value" Close goes on to say that we are still looking at something between 55 and 60 percent of total domestic beef consumption being sold as a ground product, "So yes, it's not our price leader but it is a critically component on total volume" referring to the hamburger market here in the US.
On the live animal side of things- we asked Close what he sees as the outlook is for beef/cow numbers as we start 2020. "If you look at the percentage of heifers that we have in the on-feed mix, on if you look at the percentage of the heifers, we have in the fed slaughter mix we have stopped expansion." Close adds that while cow slaughter has been aggressive, he hasn't seen any ratios that make him think we are liquidating cows, however they have stopped the expansion of females entering that production phase. Close projects the cattle numbers for 2020 will be flat, but that 2021 could see something else, "Will we see total cattle numbers declining because we have not put fresh supplies in the system? I absolutely believe that is true"
Click on the LISTEN BAR below to hear more from Rabo's Don Close as he talks with Ron Hays in today's Beef Buzz.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
Ron Hays Beef Buzzes with Don Close of Rabo AgriFinance
right-click to download mp3
WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI
Beef News
January Cattle on Feed Report Three Percent Under Year Ago- Derrell Peel Says Tighter Supplies Will Be Around for Awhile Mon, 23 Jan 2023 05:15:04 CST
Derrell Peel Talks Latest Cattle on Feed Report- Showing Fewer Cattle on Feed, Lighter Placements and Stronger Marketings. Mon, 26 Dec 2022 08:19:00 CST
Kara Lee with Certified Angus Beef Tells Cattlemen 'Cut the Bull' Fri, 23 Dec 2022 14:30:39 CST
Beef Checkoff Utilizes Digital Marketing Techniques to Interact with Consumers Thu, 22 Dec 2022 16:02:51 CST
Beef Checkoff Research, Education, and Promotion Efforts Point Consumers to Beef Wed, 21 Dec 2022 16:15:46 CST
OSU Economist Derrell Peel Expects US Beef Export Strength to Continue Into the New Year Tue, 20 Dec 2022 08:00:35 CST
NPPC's Michael Formica Feeling Positive About Supreme Courts Upcoming Proposition 12 Decision Mon, 05 Dec 2022 10:08:27 CST
NCBA Fights to Improve Marketing Options for Cattle Producers Fri, 02 Dec 2022 09:58:28 CST
Chinese Consumers Continue to Grow Appetite for U.S. Beef Thu, 01 Dec 2022 09:23:49 CST
Merck Creates Value for Producers and Consumers with Technology and Biopharmaceuticals Wed, 30 Nov 2022 09:55:28 CST
NCBA’s Todd Wilkinson Ready to Fight Back Against Regulatory Overreach in the Cattle Industry Tue, 29 Nov 2022 10:13:33 CST
NCBA and PLC Call ESA Listing Plan of Lesser Prairie Chicken Punitive for Cattle Producers in Southern Plains Wed, 23 Nov 2022 14:51:02 CST
November Cattle on Feed Report Confirms October Pattern of Lower Placements and Tighter Cattle Numbers in Feedlots Tue, 22 Nov 2022 05:07:02 CST
Turning the Corner- OSU's Derrell Peel Sees Tighter Cattle Inventories into 2023 in Latest Cattle on Feed Report Mon, 21 Nov 2022 04:36:33 CST
Turning the Corner- OSU's Derrell Peel Sees Tighter Cattle Inventories into 2023 in Latest Cattle on Feed Report Mon, 21 Nov 2022 04:27:40 CST
Midterm Elections to Set Stage for What Can Be Expected in 2023 Farm Bill Mon, 07 Nov 2022 12:13:57 CST
USMEF's Dan Halstrom Remains Cautiously Optimistic about Strong Beef Demand Going Forward Thu, 03 Nov 2022 09:35:46 CDT
Economic Factors Create Hesitancy in Beef Plant Expansion Plans Wed, 02 Nov 2022 11:03:34 CDT
NCBA's Mike Simone Says Consumer Interest in Fake Meat is on the Decline Tue, 01 Nov 2022 11:41:02 CDT
Beef Remains Valued Product for Consumers as it Allows Them to Stretch their Dollar Mon, 31 Oct 2022 09:15:56 CDT
Hugh Aljoe Provides Methods to Begin and Maintain Good Land Stewardship Fri, 28 Oct 2022 09:30:13 CDT
Implement Soil Health Practices Now to Increase Forage Production when Rains Come Thu, 27 Oct 2022 15:14:07 CDT
Third Beef. It's What's For Dinner. 300 Promotes the Beef Industry on a National Level Wed, 26 Oct 2022 15:32:23 CDT
Latest Cattle on Feed Report from USDA Implies Fewer Pounds of Beef Available in 2023 Tue, 25 Oct 2022 10:17:53 CDT
OSU's Derrell Peel- Lower Placements and Smaller On Feed Number Highlight October Cattle on Feed Report Sun, 23 Oct 2022 12:45:37 CDT
Beef Checkoff Research Continues to Share Beef Sustainability Story with Consumers Fri, 21 Oct 2022 09:23:36 CDT
Beef Checkoff Research Works to Ensure Consumers Beef is a Product They Can Trust Thu, 20 Oct 2022 13:44:44 CDT
Odds for Significant Wheat Pasture Going Lower Daily in the Southern Plains Wed, 19 Oct 2022 14:35:46 CDT
NCBA Weighs in on California's Proposition 12 Tue, 18 Oct 2022 11:32:24 CDT
2022 Stockyards Steak Out Takes Oklahoma Beef to the Next Level Mon, 17 Oct 2022 11:09:07 CDT
Holding Onto Your Cow Herd a Little Longer is Projected to Pay Off, says Randy Blach Fri, 14 Oct 2022 08:14:05 CDT
Randy Blach Confident in Better Cattle Market Conditions Down the Road Thu, 13 Oct 2022 09:43:02 CDT
No Imports or Exports Would Result in a Smaller U.S. Beef Cattle Industry Wed, 12 Oct 2022 16:11:15 CDT
Derrell Peel Explains Why International Trade of Beef is Valuable Tue, 11 Oct 2022 08:19:29 CDT
Animal Agriculture Hopeful for a Win as U.S. Supreme Court Looks at California's Proposition 12 Mon, 10 Oct 2022 09:26:17 CDT
