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Beef Buzz News

When It Comes to Drought Conditions OSU's Derrell Peel Says Hope for the Best, Plan for the Worst

Tue, 22 Feb 2022 09:32:48 CST

Even with the moisture Oklahoma saw last week, nearly all of the state is facing abnormally dry conditions or worse. The same can be said for the rest of the Southern Plains too; 85% of Kansas is classified as facing abnormally dry conditions or worse and 88% of Texas is classified in the same way. Conditions are forecast to get worse and spread to other integral parts of cattle country in 2022.

Already starting the year with tighter cattle supplies, Derrell Peel, extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, said expanding drought conditions could have major impacts on beef cattle numbers this year and beyond depending on how bad things get.

"We got some data on December hay stocks and looking at the Northern Plains region - Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas - hay stocks were down 40% on a year-over-year basis," Peel said. "They are about out of rope."

That region saw significant beef cow herd liquidations too, according to Peel. The northern plains have become increasingly dry since the spring of 2020, when just 9% of Montana was facing abnormally dry conditions or worse and 15% of the High Plains was facing similar conditions.

Since the summer of last year, drought has developed in Oklahoma and the Southern Plains. Today, 97% of Oklahoma is facing abnormally dry conditions or worse, 88% of Texas, 91% of Montana and 92% of the High Plains are facing similar conditions. Condition outlooks do not show much improvement.

"Outlook from now until April show drought development is likely in the central plains," Peel said. "If you put all that together - we could be talking about the drought impacting more than 50% of the beef cow herd this year."

Peel said that would have major impacts on cull-cow markets, change feeder cattle timing and affect the industry for the next several years. At the same time, there is always hope that mother nature will right the ship and, in the meantime, producers can plan for the worst and mitigate risk, he added.

"It is not too early for producers to begin thinking about how they are going to deal with the situation if that worst-case scenario comes about," Peel said.

Because big decisions like liquidating your herd can be emotional, Peel said it helps to have a plan in place. First, producers should inventory their resources, look at their cow herd situation and begin making a list in the order of what decisions would have to be made, so when the time comes to make a decision, the homework is already done.

Click on the LISTEN BAR below to hear more from Ron Hays and Derrell Peel as they talk about current and future drought conditions in cattle country and what that means for producers.

The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.

   


   

Listen to Ron's conversation with Dr. Peel here. right-click to download mp3

 

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