Beef Buzz News
Fewer Pounds of Beef Coming in the Beef Pipeline
Mon, 16 May 2022 09:02:32 CDT
Ron Hays, Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster, talks about the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) numbers of last week for the beef industry and the Daily Livestock Report by Len Stiner.
In Len Stiner's more recent articles in the Daily Livestock Report, he focuses on beef consumption and supply and demand numbers from the most recent WASDE report. According to Stiner, when you start trying to prevent beef consumption and beef demand the availability of beef in our supply side of the leger gets tough.
Record feed prices, drought conditions, inflation and war all make for an especially uncertain environment going forward.
Stiner says that over the last 12 months, USDA has made some significant upward revisions to the beef production forecast for 2022. The latest projections put beef production for 2022 at 27.9 billion pounds, down 106 million pounds (.4%) from a year ago.
As we get further into 2022, there are expectations that we will not have too much of a difference when it comes to the number of pounds available this year versus last year. It mostly boils down to more females going to the processing plants than we first thought.
At the start of the year, USDA was expecting beef production for 2022 to be down 785 million pounds or about 2.8%. The high rate of cow slaughter in the first four months of the year along with the increase in the number of cattle placed on feed drive those revisions to beef supply projections.
As the supply on the ground continues to decline, we can expect an even larger decline down the road.
Different from hogs, where producers are able to offset the drop in breeding stock by getting more pigs per litter, cattle producers are limited by biology. The calf crop was down last year, and it is almost certain to be down this year as well.
Once producers stop pushing female calves in the feedlots, Stiner believes the supply hole will be even bigger. USDA is forecasting beef production in 2023 at 26 billion pounds, down 1.9 billion pounds (6.8%).
This would be the largest year-over-year decline in beef production on record, surpassing the drop experience with BSE in 2004 and the drought in 2014.
The USDA is consistently increasing import projections, reflecting the bigger volume coming from Brazil and Mexico. More imports from Australia are expected in the second half of the year. Currently, the USDA is forecasting beef imports to be 3.5 billion pounds, 280 pounds (8.5%) higher than the January forecast, and 5.6% higher than a year ago.
Beef exports for 2022 have also been revised up by 86 million pounds since the start of the year. Beef exports are forecasted to be down 2-2.5% for the year overall. As a result, beef per capita consumption in 2022 is forecasted to be slightly higher than in 2021, but a drop in output next year has USDA forecasting a significant 7% decline in beef per capita consumption for 2023.
To read the latest WASDE report, click here.
Click on the LISTEN BAR below to hear more from Ron Hays on the latest WASDE numbers of last week for the beef industry.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
Listen to Ron Hays talk on beef industry numbers from the lastest WASDE report
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