Beef Buzz News
Katelyn McCullock with LMIC says Interesting Summer Ahead from a Meat Case Perspective
Tue, 28 Jun 2022 09:38:54 CDT
Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster, Ron Hays, talks with the Director and Senior Agriculture Economist at the Livestock Market Information Center, Katelyn McCullock. McCullock speaks about the latest cattle on feed numbers as well as the cold storage report from the USDA.
Katelyn McCullock and Ron Hays talk Latest Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage Reports
The latest cattle on feed numbers released last week showed large numbers as of June 1.
"We had a record number of cattle on feed, and that is surprising and probably a little worrisome when you think about what is fed cattle price going to do, because that means it is higher than we were when we were backing up cattle in 2020 and it's higher than we were in 2021," McCullock said.
In the June report, McCullock said, the numbers confirmed the drought stress scenario because cattle in the under 600 lbs. category were 4 percent higher nationally, and the 600-699 lbs. category was up 6 percent from last year. All the heavier weights, McCullock added, were down relative to a year ago.
In Texas, McCullock said cattle under 600 lbs. increased by 10,000 head. For the 600-699 lbs. category, McCullock added that Texas and Nebraska were down about 5,000 head each.
"For Kansas, most of the year we have seen placements above a year ago, and May was kind of an anomaly that trend," McCullock said. "They were down about 25,000 head."
On the flip side, McCullock said Texas has been below a year ago for the whole year, and they were down 5,000 head this month. Wheat pasture cattle, McCullock added, moved earlier in the March time frame and normally you would see those numbers come out in May.
"The other thing I would like to note is, that the marketing number came out smaller than pre-report estimates were," McCullock said. "Marketing is how fast those feedlots are turning those cattle over and sending them to the packer. The pre-report estimate was about 3 percent, and 2.3 percent was the actual number."
As for the cold storage report, McCullock said beef tonnage was higher, when normally you would see beef stocks decline in the summer months.
"We are increasing the number of stocks on hand for beef and the cutout hasn't started falling, but I think when you are looking at that stock number we are pointing towards, we are probably going to see lower prices or we are going to see some bigger export numbers," McCullock said.
McCullock said consumers are facing some fairly unprecedented pessimism in their lives right now. The Consumer Sentiment Index for June, a survey that asks consumers how they are feeling toward the future, is the lowest on record back to 1978, she added.
"That is a very shocking number that we as a society and a country are feeling worse than we ever have during the great recession and during covid," McCullock said.
Inflation and recession have become a normal conversation topic for people, McCullock said, instead of just economists.
"It is going to be an interesting summer, but I think at least from a meat case perspective, consumers have a lot going on in their minds and I wouldn't be surprised if we were already seeing some swapping of cuts around or buying a little bit differently than we were a year ago," McCullock said.
Click the LISTEN BAR below to hear Ron Hays and Katelyn McCullock talk latest cattle on feed numbers and cold storage report.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
Click here to read the latest cattle on feed report from June 24, 2022.
Click here to read the latest cold storage report from June 23, 2022.
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