Government Shutdown Has Minimal Impact on Grain Markets So Far, Anderson SaysThu, 03 Oct 2013 16:58:15 CDT
The talk among grain traders is the same as the talk across most of the country: the government shutdown. Oklahoma State University Grain Marketing Specialist Kim Anderson says in this week's preview of SUNUP that grain markets, so far, haven't been affected that much.
"The commodity markets, the grain markets, you haven't had much impact. One analyst said we have less information than we did before the government shutdown, like on export numbers. We might not get the WASDE report that's due on the 11th. So, we're depending on numbers that are coming from the market analysts."
Anderson said there may be less volatility in the markets due to the lack of information that usually comes from government sources.
"I think the important thing is that we're depending on numbers from the analytical firms and the large firms. And the large firms will have the information before the rest of us out in the public, but they've always had the numbers first. Like the WASDE report coming up on the 11th, you've got the average of the market analysts which try to predict what that USDA number is.
"I think what we've got t be concerned about is when the government comes back to work and starts releasing numbers, and then we could have volatility from how the government numbers match the numbers we've been using beforehand."
Wheat has gained about 52 cents in the past week and Anderson says that is mainly due to the lower USDA ending stocks figures published earlier. Wheat ending stocks across all types of wheat showed about a 30 percent drop from the previous year.
"I think the markets realized that U.S. wheat stocks are relatively tight. There's a potential shortage of protein wheat and our hard red winter wheat's got good protein in it and there's good export demand right now."
Anderson said that while this year's harvest worldwide will set a record, protein levels are down except in the United States which puts a premium on it and also helps account for the higher prices we've seen.
He also says for those producers with wheat still in storage, this might be the time to sell ten to 20 percent of what's left in the bin.
Catch SUNUP: Saturdays at 7:30 a.m. & Sundays at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV or online at www.sunup.okstate.edu or www.youtube.com/sunuptv
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