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Agricultural News

USDA Sees Much Smaller Kansas and Oklahoma Wheat Crop Than Was Measured by Wheat Scouts One Week Ago

Tue, 10 May 2016 12:40:23 CDT

USDA Sees Much Smaller Kansas and Oklahoma Wheat Crop Than Was Measured by Wheat Scouts One Week Ago The 2016 Winter Wheat forecast by USDA for the southern plains is considerably more conservative than what crop scouts saw in the two largest hard red winter wheat production states. The annual Wheat Quality Council Winter Wheat Crop Tour concluded last Thursday, with scouts predicting a 382.4 million bushel crop, based on 7.88 million acres to be harvested with an expected yield of 48.6 bushels per acre. If realized, that would be a fourteen percent larger crop than harvested in 2015. Click here for the final numbers from that tour.

For Oklahoma, scouts that looked at all corners of the state and came together on Wednesday at the Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association also found a lot more wheat than in 2015, with a prediction of 130.65 million bushels to be harvested here in 2016, based on 34.3 bushels per acre on a harvested total of 3.8 million acres. That's thirty one percent more wheat than the 98.8 million bushels harvested in 2015. Our report on the Oklahoma crop estimate is available here.

However, the May first USDA estimate sees Kansas at 352.6 million bushels, almost thirty million bushels smaller than what the Scouts predicted, and the Oklahoma crop is also a lot smaller- based on the USDA estimate- than what the scouts predicted with an expected crop of 105.6 million bushels, twenty five million bushels less than what the extension and private industry scouts saw last week. The USDA report predicts 32 bushels per acre, more than two bushels less than what the trade based their prediction upon- and Uncle Sam offered very conservative 3.2 million acres the Department is expecting to be harvested- well below the 3.8 million harvested a year ago and what the Wheat Tour estimates are based upon.

Based on the USDA May first data- the top five winter wheat producting states are:

1. Kansas       352,600,000 bushels

2. Oklahoma 105,600,000 bushels

2.(tied) Washington 105,600,000 bushels

4. Montana 86,100,000 bushels

5. Texas 84,000,000 bushels

To view the complete report- click here.

USDA also released their monthly WASDE report from the Economic Research Service- that report showed some tightening of soybean stocks, which caused soybean futures to soar after the report was released. Corn and Wheat were followers to the upside.

To view the complete USDA WASDE Report, click here.



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