USDA Predicts Oklahoma Wheat Crop at 52 Million Bushels- Forty Seven Percent Under the Size of the 2017 CropThu, 10 May 2018 14:32:41 CDT
The USDA issued their first wheat crop production estimate for the 2018 production cycle- and it shows that the hard red winter wheat crop will be significantly smaller than 2017 production. Hard Red Winter production, at 647 million bushels, is predicted to be down 14 percent from a year ago.
Total winter wheat production is forecast at 1.19 billion bushels, down 6 percent from 2017. As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at 48.1 bushels per acre, down 2.1 bushels from last year’s average yield of 50.2 bushels per acre.
In the southern great plains- where harvest is just weeks away- the drought stressed Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas crops are well below 2017 production. The Oklahoma wheat crop is expected to be 47% smaller than a year ago, with total production of 52 million bushels being based on 2 million acres that will be harvested- with an expected yield of 26 bushels per acre. The 52 million bushel total is six million fewer bushels than was predicted by the Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association nine days ago.
In talking with Oklahoma State Wheat Specialist Dr. David Marburger on Wednesday morning in Kildare, he told Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays that he was hearing about many acres of marginal wheat production that would not be harvested for grain- but instead for hay or for grazing. The estimate by the Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association was predicated on 2.3 million acres of harvested wheat- which Marburger felt was too high. Click here for our earlier story with Marburger for a chance to hear his comments on the 2018 production that he is now expecting.
While the USDA's May Crop Production Report was pessimistic about the production prospects for the Oklahoma crop compared to the private industry guess of last week- they see more wheat out in Kansas Wheat Fields compared to the Wheat Quality Council Wheat Tour across Kansas that ended on week ago. The crop scouts on the Tour predicted just 243.3 million bushels in Kansas for 2018- potentially the smallest crop in that state since 1989. But NASS sees 270 million bushels of wheat being combined in Kansas in the weeks ahead, based on 37 bushels per acre on 7.3 million acres. The Kansas crop is 19% under the 2017 crop raised in that state of 333.6 million bushels- if the 2018 prediction is realized.
In Texas- NASS also sees a smaller crop than a year ago- 37% smaller in 2018 than last year's harvest of 68 million bushels. The 2018 Texas wheat crop is estimated at 43.2 million bushels, based on 27 bushels per acre on 1.6 million harvested acres.
To review the complete May Crop Production report- click or tap here.
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