Nasty Weather Not Accounted For in Latest USDA Crop and WASDE ReportsThu, 11 Oct 2018 12:29:18 CDT
The US Department of Ag released the October Crop Production Report as well as the Monthly WASDE on Thursday morning. Early reaction to the report by grain traders came in the form of slightly higher Ag Futures prices.
In the Crop Production Report, USDA unexpectedly cut the U.S. corn yield to 180.7 bu/acre from last month's 181.3. Iowa and Illinois were both trimmed 2 bushels and Nebraska by three bushels- however all three states still are at record yield levels. Two states that have had less than stellar growing conditions, North Dakota and Missouri, both added 4 bushels from last month's estimates.
Corn production is forecast at 14.8 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast but up 1 percent from last year. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 180.7 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushel from the September forecast but up 4.1 bushels from 2017. If realized, this will be the highest yield and second highest production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.8 million acres, down slightly from the previous estimate and down 1 percent from 2017. Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data.
Soybean production is forecast at a record 4.69 billion bushels, down slightly from September but up 6 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditio ns, yields are expected to average a record 53.1 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from last month and up 3.8 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 88.3 million acres, down 1 percent from September and down 1 percent from 2017. Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data.
All cotton production is forecast at 19.8 million 480 - pound bales, up less than 1 percent from September but down 6 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 901 pounds per harvested acre, up 6 pounds from last month but down 4 pounds from last year. Harvested area for all cotton is expected to total 10.5 million acres, down less than 1 percent from September and down 5 percent from 2017. Upland cotton production is forecast at 19.0 million 480 pound bales, down 6 percent from 2017. Upland harvested area is expected to total 10.3 million acres, down 5 percent from last year. If realized, the United States average yield for all cotton and Upland cotton will be the second highest on record. Pima cotton production, forecast at 771,000 bales, was carried forward from last month.
The 2018 Oklahoma Cotton crop, based on the October first data, will just miss being a million bale crop this year after scoring just over a million bales in 2017. A drop of one hundred pounds of lint per acre was the big difference- harvested acres are projected at 570,000 acres this year versus 550,000 acres a year ago, which reflects a huge abandonment of about 180,000 acres currently is expected. The unknown factor with these numbers are the rains in southwestern Oklahoma which swamped several thousand acres of cotton close to harvest- that could bring the final tally for the 2018 crop down.
The 2018 Canola Crop was also a part of the Thursday report. As expected, the 2018 growing season was a disappointing one for winter canola, with only 53,000 acres reported as being harvested and a yield 35% under that of 2017- 880 pounds per acre. That meant a final production tally of 43.64 million pounds in 2018, versus 191 million pounds harvested in 2017, a drop of 76% year to year.
To review the complete report, click or tap here.
As for the October WASDE, click or tap here for the complete report.
You can watch an overview of the WASDE numbers as well as the Crop Production Stats- courtest of Joe Vaclivik of Standard Grain- click on the PLAY button in the video box below.
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