Kim Anderson Says Price of Wheat has Slipped, But Producers Should be Ready to Sell in FebruaryThu, 25 Oct 2018 16:23:24 CDT
To producers’ chagrin, the price of wheat has fallen over the past couple week. The market is down 25 cents this last week alone, and approximately 40 cents lower looking over the last two weeks. According to Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson, in an interview this week with SUNUP Host Dave Deeken, several things are at play in the market that have contributed to this price decline.
The larger issue impacting prices, he says, is that the Dollar Index increase about 3% from around 93.4 to 96.4 – essentially raising the export price about 20 cents a bushel. Compounding that issue – US export sales continue to “be in the tank,” as Anderson puts it. HRW total sales since June 1 for the US is 36% lower than last year. USDA’s prediction is that they will be down 10% for the year, yet no recovery has been made so far as countries around the world have been opting to purchase wheat from nations besides the US.
The other factor is of course, Russian production. Reports have brought conflicting information as to just how big the Russian crop is – always seeming to raise the number incrementally. Anderson says as long as Russia has wheat to sell, it will take a bite out of US price margins.
Taking into consideration the bigger picture overall, Anderson says it would be accurate to say that the domestic wheat market is being set up for a downtrend, citing the break in the $5 support level in the KC December contract falling to the July low recently of $4.93. He says if it continues to fall below that, prices could go as low as another 20 cents or so. Anderson says prices will eventually improve – but not until export sales do. That, he says, is totally dependent on when Russia runs out of wheat to sell, which he calculates will occur sometime around the first of the new year. He advises producers that can afford the 50 cent price risk to store their wheat until sometime in December or January when he believes prices are set to improve. Otherwise, he says take the emotion out of the equation and sell your wheat in lots between now and then.
You can watch their visit tomorrow or Sunday on SUNUP- but you can hear Kim's comments right now by clicking on the LISTEN BAR below.
Beyond their weekly chat with Dr. Anderson- the SUNUP crew has a very full lineup for your viewing this weekend:
This week, we learn from Josh Lofton how a long, wet harvest is impacting the soybeans that are still in the field.
- In the Mesonet weather report, Wes Lee shows us how wet Oklahoma has been and why it’s been hard for producers across the state to get field work done. Gary McManus has temperature and precipitation outlooks for winter.
- In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk explains why it can be risky for cattle to graze sorghum following a freeze.
- Dave Lalman has information about the upcoming Totusek Lectureship, featuring Anne Burkholder.
- Derrell Peel says livestock producers are excited about the potential for wheat pasture, even though it’s still too wet to put cattle on it.
- Brian Arnall explains how immobile nutrient sufficiency relates to soil test sufficiency recommendations.
- Finally, with Homecoming this week, we learn how two CASNR students are connected to Oklahoma State University’s number one Cowboy.
Join us for SUNUP:
Saturday at 7:30 a.m.
Sunday at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV
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