Latest Trade Data Shows Meat Exports Continue to Help Offset Record Meat Production in 2018Mon, 10 Dec 2018 15:13:35 CST
Mondays, Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, offers his economic analysis of the beef cattle industry. This analysis is a part of the weekly series known as the "Cow Calf Corner" published electronically by Dr. Peel and Dr. Glenn Selk. Today, Dr. Peel describes how robust trade demand has buffered this year's record meat production in the US.
"The latest meat trade data shows that meat exports are continuing to help offset record meat production in 2018. Each of the major meats - beef, pork and poultry - are projected to reach record levels in 2018 and will combine to push total U.S meat production to a record level of 102.3 billion pounds, up 2.6 percent year over year. However, 2018 per capita meat consumption in the U.S. is projected at 218.7 pounds, up 1.0 percent year over year. The smaller increase in meat consumption compared to production is largely due to the net movement of meat offshore through meat exports. Thus far in 2018 (January - October), total meat exports of 13.3 billion pounds consist of broiler (44.0 percent); pork (36.3 percent); and beef (19.7 percent).
"Broiler exports in October were up 4.2 percent year over year in October and are up 3.9 percent for the year to date. Mexico accounts for 20.1 percent of broiler exports thus far in 2018 with October exports up 15.3 percent and 2018 year to date exports up 7.6 percent. The Caribbean collectively is the second largest market accounting for 9.0 percent of total broiler exports thus far in 2018. However, broiler exports to the Caribbean were down 35.3 percent year over year in October and are down 6.1 percent for the first ten months of 2018. Angola is the third largest market for broiler exports and was up 56.1 percent in October and is up 19.7 percent for the year to date in 2018. Angola accounted for 7.1 percent of total broiler exports through October. Canada and Hong Kong round out the top five broiler export markets, with each accounting for less than five percent of total exports and both down thus far in 2018. The top five broiler export markets account for about 45 percent of broiler exports with the remaining 55 percent spread over more than 150 other countries.
"Pork exports were up 1.5 percent year over year in October and are up 5.4 percent for the year to date. Mexico is the largest pork export destination accounting for 30.8 percent of total pork exports thus far in 2018. Pork exports to Mexico were down 3.9 percent year over year in October but are up 1.1 percent for the year to date. Japan accounts for 21.0 percent of pork export thus far in 2018 and was up 8.9 percent year over year in October and is fractionally higher by 0.7 percent for the year to date. Number three pork export market South Korea represents 11.9 percent of year to date exports. Pork exports to South Korea were up 25.8 percent year over year in October and are up 39.0 percent so far this year. Pork exports to Canada were down in October and are down for the year to date. Canada represents 9.0 percent of pork exports so far this year.
"Beef exports continued strong for 2018 with October up 4.6 percent year over year and total exports up 12.3 percent thus far in 2018. Japan accounts for 28.4 percent of beef exports thus far in 2018 and were up 10.8 percent in October, adding to a 6.7 percent year to date increase. Beef exports to South Korea were up 17.1 percent year over year in October and are up 39.9 percent for the year to date. South Korea accounts for 20.4 percent of total beef exports thus far in 2018. Beef exports to number three Mexico were up 3.0 percent year over year in October and are up 8.1 percent for the year to date. Mexico accounts for 14.2 percent of beef exports thus far in 2018. Canada and Hong Kong are the fourth and fifth largest beef export markets, each accounting for just under 10 percent of total beef exports. Beef exports to both Canada and Hong Kong were down in October and are down for the year to date. Total beef imports were down 4.8 percent in October and are down fractionally so far this year.
"Meat exports are forecast to increase in 2019 while total meat imports are forecast to decrease. Continued improvements in the net trade balance will be critical to partially offset total 2019 meat production forecast at 103.7 billion pounds, up 1.4 percent year over year and another record level. Domestic per capita total meat consumption is forecast to hold steady in 2019."
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