WASDE Released by USDA- Predicts Smaller Wheat, Corn and Cotton Stocks and Higher Soybean StocksSat, 09 Nov 2019 07:05:11 CST
The latest WASDE report was released on Friday by the USDA's Economic Reserach Service- the following are some of the highlights of the report:
The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower stocks. Wheat supplies are decreased 42 million bushels, based on updated production estimates for the States resurveyed following the NASS Small GrainsSummary, issued September 30. Adjustments to production in these States, where significant acreage remained unharvested in early September, lowers production estimates for Hard Red Spring wheat, White wheat, and D urum with most reductions occurring in North Dakota and Montana. Estimated seed use is reduced 7 million bushels to 61 million, reflecting a projected 2020/21 all wheat planted acreage of 45.0 million. Food use is lowered 5 million bushels to 955 million, primarily based on the NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued November 1. Projected 2019/20 wheat stocks are reduced 30 million bushels to 1,014 million. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.10 per bushel to $4.60, based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash and futures prices the remainder of the 2019/20 marketing year.
Corn and other Course Grains
This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced use, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.661 billion bushels, down 118 million from last month on a 1.4-bushel reduction in yield to 167.0 bushels per acre. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Exports are reduced reflecting the slow pace of early-season sales and shipments. Corn used for ethanol is down 25 million bushels based on September data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of October. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks are lowered 18 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $3.85 per bushelbased on observed prices to date.
The U.S. soybean outlook is for slightly lower production, reduced crush, and higher ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 3.55 billion bushels, down less than 1 million on fractionally lower yields and unchanged harvested area. Soybean crush is reduced 15 million bushels to 2.11 billion on lower-than expected early-season crush and reduced soybean meal export prospects. With reduced crush, soybean ending stocks are projected at 475 million bushels, up 15 million.The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019/20 is forecast at $9.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price forecast is also unchanged at $325.00 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast at $0.31 per pound, up $0.01 from last month on sharply higher reported prices through October.
This month’s 2019/20 U.S. cotton estimates include lower production and ending stocks due to a smaller crop in the Southwest. While the U.S. production forecast is reduced 4 percent, to 20.8 million bales, domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. U.S. ending stocks are now 900,000 bales lower at 6.1 million but, at 31 percent, are still forecast at their highest share of use since 2008/09. The marketing-year average price received by upland producers is forecast at 61 cents per pound, 5 percent (3 cents) above the October forecast, but 13 percent lower than the final 2018/19 price of 70.3 cents.
This month’s 2019/20 world cotton forecasts include lower production, lower ending stocks and higher world trade. World production is reduced nearly 3.0 million bales, with reductions occurring primarily in the United States, Pakistan, India, and China. There are also smaller declines in the production estimates for Turkey and Turkmenistan. World trade is forecast 1.1 million bales higher, with higher imports by Turkey, Pakistan, and India more than offsetting a 200,000-bale decline in Indonesia. Higher exports are projected from Brazil, Malaysia, Benin, Greece, India, and several smaller countries. With little change from the previous month in beginning stocks or consumption, world 2019/20 cotton ending stocks are projected nearly 3.0 million bales lower this month. At 80.8 million bales, world ending stocks in 2019/20 are forecast nearly unchanged from 2018-2019.
Livestock, Poultry and Dairy
The forecast for 2019 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month on higher beef, pork, broiler, and turkey production. Beef production is raised from the previous month on higher expected slaughter of both fed and non-fed cattle. The pork production forecast is raised on both higher hog slaughter and slightly higher carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is raised as hatchery data points to larger supplies of birds available for slaughter in the fourth quarter. Turkey production is raised on higher-than-expected third-quarter production and higher expected supplies of birds in the fourth quarter. Egg production is reduced on lower reported hatching egg production in the third quarter which more than offsets higher-than-expected table egg production. However, no change is made to the fourth-quarter production forecast.
For 2020, the total red meat and poultry forecast is increased from last month as higher broiler and turkey production more than offsets a lower beef production forecast. The pork production forecast is unchanged. Broiler and turkey production forecasts are raised as the increase in production late this year is forecast to carry into late 2020. The beef production forecast is reduced on a slower expected pace of gains in carcass weights. A slightly slower pace of feedlot marketings also contributes to the reduced production forecast. The 2020 egg production forecast is unchanged from the previous month.
Beef and pork trade for 2019 are adjusted to reflect third-quarter reported data; the forecasts for the fourth-quarter 2019 and for 2020 are unchanged from last month. The 2019 broiler export forecast is lowered as weaker-than-expected third quarter exports further dampen expectations for shipments in the fourth quarter; no change is made to the 2020 forecast. Turkey export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged.
The cattle price forecast is raised for fourth-quarter 2019 based on recent data; no change is made to the 2020 forecast. The 2019 and 2020 hog price forecasts are reduced on current price weakness. The 2019 broiler price forecast is raised from the previous month on current prices. The price strength is carried into early 2020, but increased production in the later part of 2020 is expected to pressure prices; the 2020 annual price forecast is unchanged. The 2019 and 2020 turkey price forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. The egg price forecast for 2019 is increased on current price strength, but the 2020 forecast is unchanged.
The milk production forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are raised from the previous month asstronger growth in milk per cow more than offsets a slower expected recovery in the cow inventory. The 2019 fat basis import forecast is raised on recent trade data; the 2020 import forecast is unchanged. The fat basis export forecast for 2020 is lowered as higher domestic cheese prices are expected to affect the competitiveness of U.S. cheese in international markets. The skim-solids basis import forecast for 2019 is reduced on lower imports of milk protein products. The 2020 forecast is unchanged. The 2019 skim-solids basis export forecast is raised on stronger sales of nonfat/skim milk powder (NDM/SMP). The 2020 forecast is unchanged as weak exports of cheese and whey products offset higher expected NDM/SMP sales.
Click or tap here for the complete report from USDA's ERS.
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