Agricultural News
WASDE Lowers Corn and Soybean Harvest Projections and Stocks
Fri, 09 Oct 2020 16:24:34 CDT
As expected, the October World Ag Supply and Demand Report shows lower U.S. corn and soybean production, as well as lower stocks of commodities.
Corn production is forecast at 14.722 billion bushels, 178 million bushels lower than the previous month. Corn yield declined slightly to 178.4 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast down sharply from last month, thanks to a smaller crop and lower beginning stocks. The corn price rose 10 cents to $3.60 a bushel. Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 45 million bushels on a lower harvested area, and the yield is projected at 51.9 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month.
Soybean supplies are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, down 96 million on lower production and beginning stocks. The soybean price is forecast at $9.80 a bushel, 55 cents higher than September, due to smaller supplies and higher exports. USDA says wheat supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels from the previous month on the combination of lower beginning stocks and production. Projected ending stocks dropped by 42 million bushels to 883 million, which would be the lowest ending stocks in six years. The season-average farm price is up 20 cents a bushel to $4.70.
For Wheat:
The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels, on the combination of lower beginning stocks and production as indicated by the NASS Grains Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary reports, respectively. Partly offsetting are lower imports, with all the reduction for Durum. Domestic use is raised 10 million bushels, all on higher feed and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report indicated greater first quarter disappearance than previously estimated. Exports remain at 975 million bushels due to offsetting by-class changes. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 42 million bushels to 883 million, which would be the lowest ending stocks in six years. The season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $4.70 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, greater exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised 2.2 million tons to 1,072.5 million, mostly on Russia's production increasing 5.0 million tons to 83.0 million, which is the second-largest crop on record, following 2017/18. The increased production is based on updated harvest results as reported by Russia's Ministry of Agriculture, which imply record-high spring wheat yields. Russia's increased production more than offsets reductions in Ukraine, Canada, Argentina, and the United States. Ukraine's production is lowered 1.5 million tons to 25.5 million, based on Ukraine's State Statistics Service estimates. Canada's production is reduced 1.0 million tons to 35.0 million, primarily on the updated Statistics Canada forecast issued September 14. Argentina's production is lowered 0.5 million tons to 19.0 million on continued dry conditions in some regions.
World consumption is increased fractionally to 751.0 million tons, primarily on higher feed and residual usage for Russia and greater food, seed, and industrial use in Pakistan and EU more than offsetting lower feed and residual use for Ukraine and Canada. Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 0.5 million tons to 189.9 million on higher exports for Russia more than offsetting reductions for Argentina and Ukraine. Russia's exports are raised 1.5 million tons to 39.0 million, which are the second highest on record. The largest import changes this month are for China and Pakistan, each raised 0.5 million tons. China's imports are raised on a strong early pace and are now 7.5 million tons, making China the third largest global importer for 2020/21. Pakistan imports are now 1.5 million tons, raising stocks which have been relatively tight recently. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are raised 2.1 million tons to 321.5 m.
For LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
The forecast for 2020 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month. Beef production is raised from the previous month on higher expected second-half cattle slaughter. The pork production forecast is reduced on lower second-half commercial hog slaughter and lighter carcass weights. The broiler and turkey production forecasts are raised on production data to date. The egg production forecast is raised slightly from last month. For 2021, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the previous month on higher expected beef, pork, and broiler production. Beef production is raised from last month on higher expected steer and heifer slaughter. Pork production is raised on higher forecast commercial hog slaughter. The 2021 broiler production forecast is also raised from last month on slightly more rapid production growth, but the turkey production forecast is unchanged.
Egg supply and use tables are revised to reflect changes in egg stock numbers. Information on the changes and historical supply and use data can be found at: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/wasde/historical-revisions The 2020 beef import forecast is raised on recent trade data and continued firm import demand for processing grade beef, while exports are unchanged. For 2021, the beef import forecast is raised, while the beef export forecast is lowered on slower expected global demand. The 2020 and 2021 pork export forecasts are lowered from last month on weakness in global import demand. The 2020 and 2021 broiler export forecasts are raised from last month. Egg exports for 2020 are raised slightly, but no change is made to the 2021 export forecast. The cattle price forecasts for 2020 is raised on current price strength and robust beef demand; this increase in price strength was carried into early 2021. Hog price forecasts are raised for 2020 and 2021 on current price movements and continued strength in demand. The 2020 broiler price forecast is virtually unchanged from last month but is reduced for 2021 on expected supply pressure.
The turkey price forecasts for 2020 and 2021 are raised. The 2020 egg price forecast is increased on current strength in prices, but 2021 price forecast is unchanged. The milk production forecast for 2020 is raised from the previous month on slightly higher cow numbers and a more rapid pace of growth in milk per cow. For 2020, the fat basis import forecast is unchanged while the export forecast is reduced on lower exports of butterfat products. The skim-solids import forecast remains unchanged, but the export forecast is reduced on lower dry whey and lactose shipments. Cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are raised from last month, while the whey forecast is unchanged. The 2020 forecast for butter is reduced.
The Class III price forecast is raised on the higher cheese price forecast. The Class IV price forecast is also raised as the higher NDM price more than offsets the lower butter price forecast. The all milk price forecast is raised to $18.00 per cwt. WASDE-605-5 For 2021, a larger dairy herd and higher milk per cow are expected to support higher milk production from last month. The fat basis import forecast is unchanged, while the fat basis export forecast is lowered on weak global import demand for butterfat products. The skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged, while the export forecast is raised on expected robust international demand for skim milk powder and whey products. Dairy product price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are raised from last month. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised on higher product prices. The all milk price forecast is raised to $17.60 per cwt for 2021.
For Cotton:
The 2020/21 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show marginally lower production compared with last month. Production is lowered less than 1 percent, to 17.0 million bales. Domestic mill use, exports, and ending stocks are unchanged. At 7.2 million bales, U.S. ending stocks in 2020/21 are projected at 42 percent of use, compared with 41 percent in 2019/20.
The 2020/21 season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 61.0 cents per pound, 2 cents higher than last month and slightly above the final 2019/20 price of 59.6 cents. The 2020/21 world cotton supply and demand forecasts feature lower production, higher consumption and trade, and lower ending stocks compared with last month. Production is lowered more than 900,000 bales with declines in Mali, Pakistan, and Greece offsetting a larger expected crop in Nigeria. Consumption is 1.5 million bales higher, largely reflecting revisions for China and India.
World trade is projected about 500,000 bales higher this month, reflecting a 500,000-bale increase in China's projected imports, and on the export side, higher exports by Brazil and Uzbekistan offsetting a decline for Mali. World ending stocks in 2020/21 are now projected 2.7 million bales lower than in September, at 101.1 million bales, equivalent to 89 percent of consumption.
OilSeeds:
U.S. oilseed production for 2020/21 is projected at 126.6 million tons, down 1.1 million from last month with lower soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production partly offset with higher canola and sunflowerseed. Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 45 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area is reduced 0.7 million acres to 82.3 million, with reductions for Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The soybean yield is projected at 51.9 bushels per acre, unchanged from the September forecast. Soybean supplies for 2020/21 are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, down 96 million on lower production and beginning stocks.
Despite reduced supplies, soybean exports are raised 75 million bushels on record early-season WASDE-605-3 sales. With smaller supplies and increased exports, ending stocks are projected at 290 million bushels, down 170 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecast at $9.80 per bushel, up 55 cents reflecting smaller supplies and higher exports. The soybean meal price is forecast at $335.00 per short ton, up $20.00. The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 32.5 cents per pound. The 2020/21 foreign oilseed production is lowered 2.6 million tons to 478.9 million mainly on lower sunflowerseed production for Ukraine, the EU, Moldova, and Argentina. Ukraine's sunflowerseed output is lowered 2 million tons to 15 million on drought conditions during the season and harvest results to date. Dryness also impacted yield prospects for Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova. Lower sunflowerseed production for Ukraine results in lower global sunflower meal and oil exports.
Partly offsetting are higher exports of palm oil from Malaysia and rapeseed meal from Russia. The 2020/21 foreign soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower beginning stocks, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered mainly on higher 2019/20 crush for China that is partly offset by lower exports and higher stocks for Brazil. The 2020/21 soybean imports, crush, and meal consumption are higher for China, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam, aligning with prior year increases in domestic meal use. Argentina's exports are lowered 0.5 million tons due to stronger competition from the United States. With lower supplies in the United States and higher foreign use, global ending stocks are reduced 4.9 million tons to 88.7 million.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month's 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced corn used for ethanol and feed and residual use, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.722 billion bushels, down 178 million with a reduction in harvested area and a slight decline in yield to 178.4 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast down sharply from last month, on a smaller crop and lower beginning stocks.
Corn used for ethanol is down 50 million bushels, based on weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration into early October. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels WASDE-605-2 based on a reduced crop and higher expected prices. Corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are lowered 336 million bushels. The corn price is raised 10 cents to $3.60 per bushel. Grain sorghum production is forecast higher from last month, with a 0.2-bushel per acre increase in the yield to 74.1 bushels per acre and an increase in harvested area.
Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast lower to 1,458.8 million tons. The 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for higher production, increased use, and greater stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast modestly higher with increases for several countries, including Serbia, Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Burkina, and Mali more than offsetting declines for Ukraine and the EU. The projected corn yield for Ukraine is lowered based on reported harvest results to date. Corn exports are raised for Serbia but lowered for Ukraine and the EU. For 2019/20, corn exports for Argentina are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2020 based on larger-than-expected shipments through September. For 2020/21, corn imports are lowered for the EU, Iran, and Kenya, but raised for Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, and Iraq. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Mexico, the EU, and Canada. Global corn ending stocks, at 300.5 million tons, are down 6.3 million from last month.
To view the complete WASDE report, click here:
For Crop Production, Corn Production Down 1 Percent from September, Forecast Soybean Production Down 1 Percent, Cotton Production Down Less Than 1 Percent.
Corn production for grain is forecast at 14.7 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 8 percent from 2019. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average a record high 178.4 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.1 bushel from the previous forecast but up 10.9 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 82.5 million acres, down 1 percent from the previous forecast, but up 1 percent from the previous year. Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data.
Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.27 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 20 percent from last year. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average a record high 51.9 bushels per harvested acre, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 4.5 bushels from 2019. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 82.3 million acres, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 10 percent from 2019. Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data.
All cotton production is forecast at 17.0 million 480-pound bales, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast, and down 14 percent from 2019. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 909 pounds per harvested acre, down 1 pound from the previous forecast but up 86 pounds from 2019. Upland cotton production is forecast at 16.5 million 480-pound bales, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 14 percent from 2019. Pima cotton production is forecast at 545,000 bales, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 20 percent from 2019. All cotton area harvested is forecast at 9.01 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but down 22 percent from 2019.
You can also view the October Crop Production numbers by clicking here:
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