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U.S. Wheat Associates Weekly Harvest Report for August 20, 2021
Fri, 20 Aug 2021 12:04:05 CDT
Here's the weekly harvest report from U.S. Wheat Associates for August 20, 2021.
The HRW harvest is all but complete with data holding steady. SW harvest is progressing quickly as testing data reflects a stressed crop. HRS harvest is nearly 70% complete and currently grades as U.S. #1 Dark Northern Spring. The northern durum crop is more than 30% harvested with good quality but variable yields reported.
USDA estimates winter wheat production at 1.32 billion bushels (37.1 MMT), an increase of 13% from last year but down 3% from July; spring wheat production is estimated at 343 million bushels (9.3 MMT), a 41% decrease from 2020; and durum production is forecast at 34.7 million bushels (0.94 MMT), a 50% decrease from last year.
Hard Red Winter
· Crop Progress: The 2021 U.S. HRW harvest is all but wrapped up with fields remaining in Idaho (95% complete) and Montana (90%). USDA estimates that HRW production will be 777 mil bu (21.1 MMT), an 18% increase over last year but down 3% from the July forecast.
· Weather: As thoughts turn to fall planting, soil moisture levels are a concern in the PNW and Northern Plains. The PNW remains dry, but much needed rainfall is expected in the Northern Plains this weekend into next week.
· Wheat Data: There are now 502 samples in various stages of testing. With samples from the PNW, moisture, test weight and 1000 kernel weight values decreased slightly while protein increased to 11.8% (12% mb). Milling has begun on 70 composites formed from 29 grainsheds broken out by protein level.
Soft White
· Crop Progress: The SW harvest continues at a fast pace with approximately 98% of the winter crop harvested and 68% of the spring crop harvested. Industry sources expect fall seeding to be delayed due to drought conditions. USDA estimates SW winter production at 160 mil bu (4.4 MMT), a 32% decrease from last year, and SW spring at 29.8 mil bu (0.8 MMT), a 34% decrease from last year.
· Weather: Seasonal temperatures have returned to the Pacific Northwest, but weather remains dry. With regional subsoil moisture levels at 58% short and 30% very short, growers are hoping for any moisture ahead of seeding the next winter wheat crop.
· Wheat Data: Composite results from 277 samples now in various stages of testing show the current grade of No. 2 SW with protein of 11.1% (12% mb) above the 5-year average of 9.8%. The high protein, low moisture and lower test weight values reflect the extreme heat and drought conditions. For buyers, this will be a good year to better understand SW protein performance verses protein levels; your local USW representative can help.
Hard Red Spring
· Crop Progress: With last week's dry conditions, harvest progressed rapidly in South Dakota (80% per USDA), Montana (54%), Minnesota (92%) and North Dakota (48%). USDA currently estimates HRS production at 305 mil bu (8.3 MMT), a 42% decrease from last year.
· Crop Conditions: HRS conditions reflect the ongoing drought with only 11% of the remaining crop in good to excellent condition; however, industry sources report better than expected quality while low yields are reflective of heat and drought stress.
· Weather: Forecasted rains through the weekend, though welcome, are expected to delay harvest progress.
· Wheat Data: Approximately 43% of the samples have been collected and analyzed for this week's report. Test weight average is 61.7 lb/bu (81.1 kg/hl), down slightly from last week. Current average protein is 15.3% (12% mb), up from last year's 14.3%. Falling number average remains above 400 seconds, indicating a sound crop. Average vitreous kernel content is 87% to make the average grade of the crop at this time U.S. No. 1 Dark Northern Spring (1 DNS).
Northern Durum
· Crop Progress: The 2021/22 durum harvest made good progress last week with Montana 31% harvested and North Dakota 32%. Industry sources report variable yields but good quality. USDA currently estimates durum production at 34.7 mil bu (0.94 MMT), a 50% decrease from last year and down 7% from the July forecast.
· Crop Conditions: This week's crop condition ratings continue to reflect prolonged heat and drought stress; USDA estimates only 23% of the North Dakota crop and 3% of Montana's is in good to excellent condition.
· Weather: Cooler temperatures and much needed rainfall are providing relief from the prolonged drought. According to North Dakota's Crop Progress Report, despite the potential quality impact from rain on the unharvested crop, replenishment of soil moisture levels will be welcomed.
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