Allendale's Rich Nelson Says USDA Increases Corn and Soybean Yields in Latest WASDE ReportTue, 12 Oct 2021 14:50:00 CDT
The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was released today.
This was released with the normal companion report, Crop Production. October is an important month for the marketing year. This is the last major change for US corn and soybean supply before the big January report, Annual Production Summary.
Production estimates for today were derived from 8,900 farmer surveys as well as objective in-field analysis. Today’s report also carries over new estimates of old crop ending stocks from the 9/30 Grain Stocks report. Associate Farm Director KC Sheperd, spoke with Allendale's Rich Nelson and he said the report was a bit bearish for Corn and soybeans, "You know these numbers are certainly a little negative here. As far as the corn discussion this is moderately negative. For soybeans these numbers are quite a bit bearish."
Corn: USDA estimated US corn ending stocks at 1.500 billion bushels, over the 1.432 trade estimate (ALDL 1.459). This came from a supply increase and a net decline in demand. Production was raised from 14.996 billion to 15.019. That was just over the 14.973 trade estimate (ALDL 15.052). Yields were raised from 176.3 bpa to 176.5. Nelson added, "On the production side the trade expected Western Cornbelt numbers to be raised with a slight decline for Illinois and Indiana. That’s exactly what happened with Illinois and Indiana seeing yield declines of 4 and 3 bushels respectively while most others were raised."
Soybeans: USDA posted a strong 320 million bushel estimate for current crop ending stocks. That was over the 300 trade estimate (ALDL 285). We knew this report would be a tough one and USDA certainly delivered. As a reminder, much of this month’s supply increase is due to revised old crop ending stocks from the 9/30 Grain Stocks report. That report found old crop stocks were 81 million over their prior 9/10 estimate. US soybean production was raised from 4.374 billion to 4.448 today. That was over the 4.415 trade estimate (ALDL 4.436). The yield increase, 50.6 to now 51.5, was the largest jump for this report in nine years. Different from corn, Illinois and Indiana saw stable yields while others were raised. To hear more from Nelson on the Soybeans, they offer Premium Content that you can subscribe to by clicking here.
Wheat: Stocks were lowered from 615 million bushels last month to now 580. This was just over the 576 trade estimate (ALDL 609). Today’s report incorporates the newly lowered production numbers from the 9/30 Small Grains Summary report. The demand changes were interesting with a 25 million cut to feed/residual but no change for exports. We suggest exports need to be lowered. Over the past 10 weeks US wheat export sales have run -27% from the five year average. To hit USDA’s whole-year goal that needs to improve to -3% from now through May. At USDA’s current stocks/use estimates a $7.50 price would be seen for the winter wheat contracts and $10.00 for Minneapolis.
You can see all the Crop Production, and WASDE numbers here:
-- Crop Production:
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):
click or tap below to hear KC's complete conversation with Rich Nelson of Allendale, and Don't forget, if you want to read more from Allendale, you can check out Premium Content that is written commentary delivered directly to you on a daily basis. Providing solid agriculture analysis to the everyday producer or trader.
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