Monday, November 29, 2021 Fire Situation ReportMon, 29 Nov 2021 09:34:06 CST
Statewide Discussion: New wildfire activity is increasing in frequency as a dry pattern continues throughout Oklahoma. Large fire activity has been kept largely at bay with most fires caught during initial attack and relatively small in size. In the week ahead, dry conditions coupled with above normal temperatures will only enhance drying/curing of wildland fuels, strengthen drought conditions and move Energy Release Component into values where increasing resistance to control becomes evident. The near-term forecast does include some precipitation chances late in the week although confined to southeastern Oklahoma. No critical fire weather is expected through the week with the lack of a fire-effective weather pattern evident. Above normal temperatures will result in a brief period of elevated fire danger each afternoon although shorter day length and cool overnight temperatures supporting will clip the active burning period short in most locations. As such, initial attack success probability is very good and large fire activity will be very limited.
Oklahoma Panhandle / NW Oklahoma: Temperatures will push well above normal through the week as dry conditions continue, although no critical fire weather is expected to develop. A weak cold front is expected to move into the area Tuesday along with the associated shift to northerly winds. Expect fine-dead fuel moisture values to register 5% each afternoon with some local 4% observations in the western Panhandle. Fire behavior in rangeland fuels is expected to exhibit head fire rates of spread 61-104 ft./min. with flame lengths around 8 ft. ROS nearer to 160 ft./min are possible during the peak burning conditions each afternoon where fuels are aligned with winds and terrain.
Western / Southwestern/Central Oklahoma: Temperatures around 70? each afternoon and relative humidity values below 30% will support receptive fine fuels although wind speeds remaining well below concerning values will limit spread potential. In general, probability of initial attack success is expected to be very good with rangeland fuels exhibiting head fire rates of spread 54-92 ft./min. and flame lengths 7-9 ft. Brush fuels are expected to exhibit single and group tree torching with short-range spotting.
Eastern Oklahoma: Last week’s rainfall was spotty with less than wetting amounts in most locations. Consistent with the rest of Oklahoma, above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the week. Current forecast information does hold some precipitation chances late in the week focused in southeastern counties. No significant fire weather is expected this week. Grass-dominated fuels during peak burning conditions are expected to exhibit head-fire rates of spread 50-106 ft./min. with head fire flame lengths 8-11 ft. Timbe-litter fuels will generally exhibit ROS 15-30 ft./min. with flame lengths 3-5 ft.
Near-Term: The Wednesday cold front does offer some opportunity for rainfall, the near-term is predominantly dry. While no particular near-term weather system presents specific concern, we are nearing that time of the year where the pre-frontal fire environment can present suppression challenges especially when combined with pot-frontal dryness.
Burn Bans: Cimarron & Texas Counties Refer to https://ag.ok.gov/divisions/forestry-services/ for the most current burn ban information and links to specific burn ban proclamations.
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