Agricultural News
USDA Trims South America Soybean Production in Latest WASDE according to Allendale's Rich Nelson
Wed, 09 Feb 2022 14:38:24 CST
USDA on Wednesday released its February Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.
Dry conditions in the past month in South America led USDA to trim Brazil and Argentinean soybean production, down 5 million metric tons (mmt) and 1.5 mmt, respectively, in the February WASDE, while also dropping Brazilian corn production by 1 mmt.
USDA left U.S. corn and soybean exports, as well as supply and demand, largely unchanged.
Farm Director KC Sheperd spoke with Allendales Rich Nelson, and he said this report shows a differing opinion, "USDA had its own say, the Market feels like it will be a month or two before we get some realistic numbers.
Nelson also said weather will continue to be a factor, "We are seeing USDA address some issues in the south American market, but they aren't really touching its impact yet."
To hear KC's complete conversation with Allendale's Rich Nelson, click or tap below..
You can also access the full reports here:
-- Crop Production:
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):
CORN
Domestically, USDA made no changes to its tables for the 2021-22 corn crop.
USDA held production steady at 15.115 billion bushels (bb) with the corn yield pegged at 177 bushels per acre (bpa).
Total supply was maintained at 16.375 bb. For demand, USDA held pat on Feed and Residual use at 5.65 bb and ethanol use remained at 5.325 bb. Total domestic use came in at 12.41 bb.
Exports held at 2.425 bb as well.
That brought in total use at 14.835 b.
Ending stocks came in at 1.54 bb.
USDA also held pat on the farm gate price at $5.45 per bushel, the same forecasted price USDA has maintained since October.
The stocks-to-use ratio for corn came in at just under 10.4%.
Globally, USDA lowered 2021-22 beginning stocks .18 mmt to 292.05 mmt. Production was lowered 1.61 mmt to 1,205.35 mmt. That put global ending stocks for 2021-22 at 302.22 mmt, down .85 mmt from last month's forecast. USDA lowered Brazil's production 1 mmt to 114 mmt but held pat on Argentina's production at 54 mmt.
For more information on corn from Allendale's premium content, click here:
SOYBEANS
USDA left domestic soybean supply and demand mostly untouched from its January report, only boosting soybean crush estimates by 25 million bushels (mb), which dropped U.S. ending stocks to 325 mb, within the pre-report estimate range.
That left the soybean stocks-to-use ratio at 7.4% this month.
U.S. farmgate prices were also tweaked upward 40 cents, to $13 per bushel.
Globally, USDA dropped soybean production by 8.7 mmt. That was based largely on drier weather in South America in the past month, with Brazil's production estimate dropping 5 mmt to 134 mmt, and Argentina dropping 1.5 mmt to 45 mmt. Ending stocks were pegged at 92.83 mmt, down from 95.2 mmt in January and within the range of pre-report estimates.
WHEAT
USDA decreased its estimate of world ending wheat stocks, from 279.95 mmt to 278.21 mmt, below analysts' pre-report estimates.
Domestic 2021-22 wheat ending stocks were increased by 20 mb to 648 mb. USDA cut wheat exports from 825 mb in January to 810 mb in the February report.
The average farmgate price for wheat was pegged at $7.30 per bushel, down from $7.15 from the January report.
The wheat stocks-to-use came in at 33.4%
LIVESTOCK
Beef production projections grew by 210 million pounds from January's WASDE report as liquidation continues to push cattle through the market's processing plants. In terms of quarterly prices, from January's report, the first quarter remained steady at $139, the second quarter remained steady at $136, but the third quarter grew by $1.00 to now an expected average of $135 and the fourth quarter grew by $2.00 from last month to now average $140. Unfortunately, beef imports grew by 105 million pounds while exports remained steady at 3,270 million pounds.
Pork production fell by 135 million pounds from January's report as slaughter continues to lag. With supplies of market-ready hogs are hard to come by, packers are cautious to run chain speeds too aggressively as that would only drive the cash market higher and cost their bottom line. In terms of quarterly price projections, all four quarters of the year saw increased from January's WASDE report. The first quarter jumped $2.00 from last month's report to now average $63, the second quarter grew by $5.00 from a month ago to now average $70, the third quarter rallied by $7.00 from last month's report to now average $67 and the fourth quarter jumped $5.00 from last month to now average $60. The hog market didn't find welcoming news from import/export projections as imports jumped by 10 million pounds from last month, but exports fell by 190 million pounds as more countries are exporting hogs, which is limiting the U.S.'s ability to export as many numbers, and China hasn't been as aggressive of a buyer like they were in years past.
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