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Agricultural News

Allendale's Rich Nelson says Latest Wasde Slightly Disappointing for Wheat and Corn

Sun, 10 Apr 2022 20:57:52 CDT

Allendale's Rich Nelson says Latest Wasde Slightly Disappointing for Wheat and Corn USDA on Friday released its April Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. Changes this month are normally focused on US old crop demand and South American production. For this year, the March and April reports also hold more interest given the potential impacts from Ukraine and Russia. For corn and soybeans these estimates are for ending stocks as of August 31. For wheat this covers activity through May 31.

Citing the uncertainty caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, USDA again lowered projected corn exports from Ukraine by 4.5 million metric tons (mmt) to 23 mmt. USDA also again lowered Ukraine's wheat exports 1 mmt to 19 mmt.

USDA sees soybean exports picking up, partially offsetting declines in Brazil, Ukraine and Russia, and that resulted in lower soybean ending stocks or the 2021-22 crop year. USDA pegs those at 260 million bushels, in line with trade expectations.

The agency lowered its forecast for Brazil soybean production to 125 million metric tons, a 2 mmt decline.

Farm Director KC Sheperd spoke with Allendale's Rich Nelson and he said this report was somewhat disapointing for Corn and Wheat, "They left ending stocks for corn unchanged at 1.440 billion bushels. This comes despite the fact that they lowered the Ukraine corn export estimate yet again, in this case 4.5 million tons. So as far as the trade focus, USDA said there's less corn out there on the export market, but they said the market is not going to care. USDA is going to wait for all those potential sales and futures on the corn side.

As for Soybeans, Nelson said those numbers were okay, "Declining US ending stocks from 285 million bushels to 260. So that decline was reasonable and as far as things we've been watching for Brazil's soybean production declined now from 127 to 125 million tons and thats kinda within the trade focus.. One small hiccup on the on the soybean side is the fact that USDA did drop their estimate for Chinese soybean imports now 91 million tons. Thats down 9% from last year."

Nelson says for wheat we did see a slight increase, "We did see an increase in stocks 653 to 678 million bushels. Simple fact is despite continuing declines for Ukraine's wheat export estimates USDA did have to recognize that we are not getting sales yet on the US side.Overall corn and wheat disappointing for some Keep in mind though these markets are trading your own numbers separate from USDA numbers."

You can hear KC's complete WASDE conversation with Allendale's Rich Nelson by clicking or tapping below.

You can also access the full reports here:

-- Crop Production:

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):


USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 2021-22 season to 678 mb, on the high end of analysts' pre-report estimates. That change was driven by USDA downgrading exports by 15 mb to 785 mb, and trimming feed and residual use by 10 mb, to 100 mb.

Average wheat farm gate prices were adjusted 10 cents up from the March estimate, to $7.60 per bushel.

Globally, old-crop wheat ending stocks were projected at 278.42 mmt, down 3.09 mmt from the March estimate. That drop was based largely on a rise in world consumption, up 3.8 mmt to 791.08 mmt. With all eyes on Ukraine and Russia, USDA dropped Ukraine's exports by 1 mmt to 19 mmt and increased Russian exports by 1 mmt to 33 mmt.


USDA made a few tweaks to the 2021-22 corn crop, but held ending stocks at 1.44 billion bushels (bb), the same as March estimates.

Total supply remained pegged at 16.375 bb, but USDA lowered Feed and Residual use by 25 million bushels (mb) to 5.625 bb. Ethanol use was increased 25 mb to 5.375 b. Exports held pat at 2.5 mb.

That left total use at 14.935 bb, the same as March.

The average farm gate price was increased 15 cents to $5.80 a bushel.

Globally, USDA bumped up beginning stocks for the 2021-22 corn crop to 292.15 mmt, an increase of .7 mmt. Production was increased 4.31 mmt to 1,2010.45 mmt. Exports were lowered 2.9 mmt to 197 mmt. Global ending stocks were increased 4.49 mmt to 305.46 mmt.

USDA held pat on Argentina's production at 53 mmt and exports held firm at 39 mmt. Brazil production was bumped up 2 mmt to 116 mmt. Brazil's exports were also increase 1.5 mmt as well.

USDA held firm on Ukraine's production at 41.9 mmt. Exports, however, were lowered 4.5 mmt to 23 mmt.


USDA lowered forecasts for domestic 2021-22 ending stocks of soybeans by 25 mb to 260 mb. Exports received the largest change, a 25 mb boost. USDA increased its projections for seed usage by 4 mb to account for higher acreage estimates, while lowering residual use by 3 mb.

The national average farm gate price was $13.25 per bushel, unchanged from last month.

Globally, USDA's ending stocks estimate didn't change much, just .38 mmt, to 89.58 mmt. Production was lowered by about 3 mmt, with a 2 mmt drop in Brazilian production making up a large part. Brazil farmers are expected to harvest 125 mmt. Argentine production was left unchanged.

USDA lowered its forecast for Chinese imports by 3 mmt to 91 mmt.


Beef production grew by 140 million pounds from last month's report as higher placements bolster vigorous processing speeds and as the market continues to see more non-fed cattle slaughter than in the past due to drought conditions. Quarterly prices saw minute changes from last month's report as the first quarter fell by $0.75 to average $139.25, the second quarter held at $139.00, the third quarter remained at $136.00 but the fourth quarter grew $1.00 stronger to average $143.00. Once again beef imports grew by 20 million pounds and exports held at 3,300,000 million pounds.

Pork production fell by 240 million pounds from last month's report as tight packer margins wane processing speeds and the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report shared that producers intend to reduce farrowings in March through May. Quarterly prices grew from March's WASDE report as demand continues to remain excellent. First quarter prices were the only quarter to fall from a month ago as they dropped to $0.45 to average $65.55, but the second quarter gained $2.00 to average $80.00, the third quarter gained $2.00 to average $77.00 and the fourth quarter jumped $4.00 to average $69.00. Imports grew by 15 million pounds and exports fell by 135 million pounds as U.S. hog prices are higher than other countries.

The 2022 forecast for total red meat and poultry production was lowered by 125 million pounds from last month as reduced forecasts for pork and poultry offset a higher forecast for beef.

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