U.S. Wheat Associates Weekly Harvest Report for May 13, 2022Fri, 13 May 2022 16:16:01 CDT
Welcome to the first Harvest Report for the 2022/23 U.S. wheat crop. USDA estimates overall winter wheat production at 1.17 million bushels, down 8% from 2021. Harvest of the HRW crop is expected to begin in Texas within the next week or two, with reduced yields expected. The 2022 Hard Red Winter Wheat Tour hosted by the Wheat Quality Council will take place next week, May 16-19; for updates about the crop in Kansas, southern Nebraska and northern Oklahoma, follow #wheattour22 on Twitter.
HARD RED WINTER
• Planted Area: USDA estimates HRW planted area at 23.7 million acres (9.59 million hectares) and forecasts HRW production at 16.1 MMT (590 million bushels). If USDA’s first winter wheat production forecast is realized, this will be the lowest HRW production since 1963 and the highest level of abandonment in the Southern Plains since 2002.
• Crop progress: Harvest is expected to begin in Texas within the next week or two with low yields expected.
• Crop Conditions: USDA estimates 31% of the HRW wheat crop is in good to excellent condition.
• Weather: Nearly the entire HRW growing region is experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions with pockets of exceptional drought. Much of the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest has received recent rainfall, though drought conditions persist.
SOFT RED WINTER
• Planted Area: USDA estimates that farmers planted 6.89 million acres (2.79 million hectares) of SRW last fall, up 6.8% from the previous year. USDA estimates SW production at 9.6 MMT (354 million bushels).
• Crop progress: Nearly 56% of the SRW crop is now headed, with 7% of Arkansas’s crop beginning to color.
• Crop Conditions: USDA estimates 71% of the SRW wheat crop is in good to excellent condition.
• Weather: Most of the sampling region experienced cool, rainy conditions this week, which are expected to continue through the weekend.
• Planted Area: Based on USDA estimates, farmers planted 3.62 million acres (1.46 million hectares) of white wheat last fall and 0.70 million acres (0.28 million hectares) this spring, a 1% increase from the previous year. USDA estimates SW winter wheat production at 5.8 MMT (214 million bushels).
• Crop progress: The PNW winter crop heading is behind the 5-year average. The spring crop is 86% planted; emergence is behind the 5-year average with 49% emerged in Washington, 39% in Idaho and 77% in Oregon.
• Weather: Overall improvement in drought conditions compared to one year ago. Cool, wet conditions continue in the PNW, boosting topsoil moisture conditions.
HARD RED SPRING
• Planted Area: USDA’s March 31 forecast estimates that planted acres for HRS wheat will be 10.5 million acres (4.25 million hectares), a 3.8% decrease from 2021.
• Crop progress: HRS planting is well behind average in Minnesota and North Dakota with 1% and 8% planted, respectively. South Dakota is 48% planted and Montana is 31%, in line with the 5-year average. Emergence is also behind normal with South Dakota 12% and Montana 7%, with no emergence in Minnesota or North Dakota.
• Weather: Overall improvement in drought conditions compared to one year ago. Spring rains continue in Minnesota and North Dakota, resulting in planting delays and localized flooding. Montana is drier but cold temperatures are slowing crop development; timely rainfall will be needed for the crop to develop and reach its yield potential.
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