Agricultural News
Allendale's Rich Nelson says Wheat acreage was a moderate surprise on USDA Acreage Report
Thu, 30 Jun 2022 14:51:01 CDT
USDA on Thursday released its Acreage and June Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.
Farmers planted 89.9 million acres of corn in 2022 and 88.3 million acres of soybeans. The corn estimate is higher than USDA's March estimate, while soybean acreage is lower. Both are within the range of pre-report estimates.
Farm Director, KC Sheperd spoke with Allendale's Rich Nelson and he said For corn and soybeans this is what is left over after three quarters of usage. For wheat, which operates on a June 1 – May 31 marketing year, this ends the old crop year. There are no numbers showing old crop production or demand in this report, "For Wheat 660 million bushels were found, just over the trade expectation, so as for whats left over from Old crop, no surprises."
Nelson said they did see some surprises in the acreage report. "As far as Corn Acres that was revised about 400,000 higher than the march initial survey, so 89.9 million, and that was expected, so no surprise for corn acreage. Soybean acres did have a good drop 2.6 million now at 88.3. So a little surprising and supportive news. Nelson said The questions for us were really about wheat and cotton, "For wheat we did see USDA revise yet again, this winter wheat planting number from last fall. That was lower just over 200,000 acres. The big surprise for us was spring, instead of dropping 400,000 acres due to those late plantings USDA only dropped 90,000 acres out of that.. So as far as wheat, a few arguments there. Cotton numbers on today's report, we did see them go from 12.2 million back in in March now 12.5, So a little larger expected cotton numbers."
To hear the complete conversation with KC & Rich Nelson, click or tap below.
ACREAGE REPORT
USDA said farmers planted 89.92 million acres (ma) of corn this spring, up from its March estimate of 89.49 ma. The acreage estimate is 4%, or 3.44 ma, lower than last year as USDA said acreage is down or unchanged in 35 of the 48 states it tracks. Area harvested for grain if forecast at 81.9 ma.
Farmers sowed 88.33 ma of soybeans this spring, 2.63 ma less than USDA's 90.96 ma forecast in March. Overall planted acreage is 1% higher than last year, with farmers planting more or an equal number of acres in 24 of the 29 estimating states.
All wheat acres for 2022 came in estimated at 47.09 ma, up 1% from 2021. While acreage is higher, 2022 still marks the fifth-lowest acreage since records began in 1919.
Winter wheat acres are projected at 34 million, up 1% from last year, though still slightly below the pre-report average.
2021/22: USDA counted June 1 US wheat stocks at 660 million bushels. That was just over the 655 trade estimate (ALDL 670). This report wraps up the completed old crop marketing year. USDA's prior estimate on the 6/10 WASDE was 655.
Of that total, about 23.5 ma are hard red winter; soft red winter accounts for 6.86 ma; and 3.61 ma are white winter wheat.
Spring wheat acreage was reported at 11.11 million acres, down 3% from 2021, but higher than the pre-report average estimate. Of that total, 10.4 ma are hard red spring wheat.
Durum wheat acres came in at 1.98 million acres, up 21% from last year.
For Oklahoma US Winter Wheat Acreage was at 4.4, the same number we saw from The March Report, and the same number from 2021.
In Texas the June Report showed 5.4, compared to the 5.5 from the March Report, and 7.3 in 2021.
In Kansas they showed 7.4, the same as the report from March 30th, and one year ago we saw 7.3.
QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS
Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2022, totaled an estimated 4.35 billion bushels (bb), up 6% from June 1, 2021, exceeding pre-report estimates.
2021/22: Old crop left over as of June 1 was estimated at 4.346 billion by USDA. This was next to the 4.343 trade expectation (ALDL 4.396). This report is important for corn as it helps us compute March- May feed/residual, a demand category that has no weekly or monthly reports to monitor. With known exports and corn for ethanol usage in the prior quarter this implies Q3 feed/residual at 912 million. This is within the 876 million to 1.118 billion range for this quarter in the prior three years. We see no impact for old crop on the coming 7/12 report from this information.
2022/23: USDA's re-survey effort found corn planting at 89.921 million acres. This was next to the 89.861 trade (ALDL 89.642). This increase over the March survey, 431,000 acres, was right on the dot. Harvested acreage was seen at 81.940 million. USDA was using 81.7 on the prior 6/10 WASDE. This higher acreage, using USDA's latest 177.0 bpa implies 14.502 billion for production. That is 42 million over the June WASDE production estimate. They will slightly raise production and stocks on the coming July WASDE. Allendale holds a higher yield than USDA, -1% from trend, at 179.2. We have production at 14.683 billion and stocks at 1.479 billion. We currently see December corn economic value at 575. If there is a moderate weather problem, -4% from trend with 173.8 bpa, we only have stocks falling to 1.209 which represents 630 for pricing.
Of the total stocks, 2.12 bb are stored on farms, up 22% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 2.23 bb, are down 6% from a year ago. The March to May 2022 indicated usage is 3.41 bb, compared with 3.58 bb during the same period last year.
Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1, 2022, totaled 971 million bushels, up 26% from June 1, 2021, also exceeding pre-report estimates. On-farm stocks totaled 331 million bushels (mb), up 51% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 640 mb, are up 17% from a year ago. Indicated usage estimates for the March to May 2022 quarter totaled 960 mb, up 21% from the same period a year earlier.
2021/23: USDA counted old crop stocks as of June 1 at 971 million bushels. That was next to the 965 trade estimate (ALDL 977). With known exports and domestic crush for the prior quarter this implies Q3 seed/feed/residual at 97 million. The prior three years saw 76 to 113 million for this category. We see no change to USDA's old crop WASDE numbers from this report.
Old crop all wheat stored in all positions on June 1, 2022, totaled 660 mb, exceeding pre-report estimates but down 22% from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 93.0 mb, down 34% from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 567 mb, are down 19% from a year ago. The March to May 2022 indicated usage is 364 mb, down 22% from the same period a year earlier.
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