Fire Weather inputs will become Stronger with elevated Fire Weather moving into the mix through the WeekendFri, 30 Sep 2022 09:25:11 CDT
Fire weather inputs will become a bit stronger than in previous days with elevated fire weather moving into the mix through the weekend and into early next week. Critically dry fuels are prevalent across the state with Energy Release Component values driving above the 90th Percentile across most of Oklahoma and surpassing the 97th Percentile in parts of southeastern Oklahoma. As such, current composite fuel moisture values have encouraged fire behavior quickly transitioning to extreme with group tree torching, crown runs and frequent spotting. On Friday, the strongest fire weather will be in the northwestern and Panhandle counties while the most concerning fuel regime resides in the southeast. Increased initial attack is expected coupled with elevated probability of large fire occurrence. This expectation will persist through the weekend.
Both Saturday and Sunday will present elevated fire weather conditions as well. While critical fire weather thresholds may not be met, fire behavior will present suppression difficulty and resistance to control. Fireline intensity will negate frontal assault and resources should expect increased time and resource requirements to contain and control new wildfire activity.
Southeastern & South-Central Oklahoma:
Temperature will warm into the low to mid-80°’s this afternoon following a cool start and relative humidity values will fall into 20-29% range with dewpoint temperatures les than 40°. Fine-dead fuel moisture will yield very receptive fuels at 4% and composite fuel moisture has eclipsed the 97th percentile leading to notable resistance to suppression effort, especially on fires that become established in timber fuels. Southeast to east winds sustained 5-12 mph with some higher gusts will support head fire rates of spread in grass dominated fuels at 76-102 ft/min with flame lengths 9-14 ft. Timber fuels will exhibit ROS 15-21 ft/min in hardwood fuels with FL 5 ft. while ROS in pine-dominant fuels will move at 26-41 ft/min with FL 6-9 ft. Expect frequent single/group tree torching with frequent spotting and crown runs on established fires. Two notes: 1) Crown runs where slope is greater than 20% may spread independently from the wind direction, and 2) Timber fuels may re-burn several days following initial attack given the amount of needle cast and leaf fall in areas of under-burned fuels.
Western & North-central Oklahoma:
Elevated to near-critical fire weather is expected today across the Oklahoma Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma with increased wind speeds in the mix with a tightened pressure gradient. A few passing showers/sprinkles this morning in north-central Oklahoma will have little to no effect on fire danger concerns in the area. Temperatures this afternoon 83°-89°under partly-cloudy to mostly-clear skies and relative humidity values 17-26% yielding finedead fuel moisture values 4% across most of the area and 3% observations in the Panhandle counties. Southerly winds will increase to 13-21 mph with some gusts nearing 30 mph during peak heating this afternoon. Rangeland fuels will exhibit head fire rates of spread 91-137 ft/min with flame lengths 10-15 ft. Where brush fuels are present, expect increased fireline intensity, torching and short-range spotting.
Temperature 78°-83° under mostly-clear skies and afternoon relative humidity values at 20-24% will yield 4% fine-dead fuel moisture during peak heating today. Southeast to east winds sustained 5-11 mph with limited gusts will support moderate rates of fire spread in grass-dominated fuels at 38-75 ft/min with flame lengths 10-15 ft. Again, brush/timber fuels will exhibit problematic fire behavior.
Elevated fire weather is forecasted to persist each afternoon through the weekend with extended burning periods given lackluster
overnight moisture recovery although calming winds and cooler overnight temperatures will ease fire behavior. The ‘was-rinserepeat’ weather pattern that has dominated and expected to continue through the weekend will lead to intensified drying of fuels
and gradually increasing fire behavior expectations. Next update to the Oklahoma Wildfire Situation Report is planned for Monday, October 3, 2022.
NE Area – 8 Fires Burned 197.5 Acres (Cause: 2-Escaped Debris, 6-Incendiary)
EC Area – 4 Fires Burned 101.5 Acres (Cause:1-Equipment, 3-Incendiary)
SE Area – 11 Fires Burned 559.5 Acres (Cause: 1-Equipment, 2-Electrical, 8-Incendiary)
Large / Significant Fire Activity within the OFS Protection Area:
• Spare Fire (Delaware County) – 110 Acres / 70% Contained
• Turkey Creek Fire (Atoka County) – 370 Acres / 90% Contained
• Kerns Ranch Fire (Pushmataha County) – 3,350 Acres / 50% Contained
• Crum Creek Fire (Pushmataha County) – 135 Acres / 80% Contained
• Rereg Road Fire (McCurtain County) – 260 Acres / 90% Contained
• Solomon’s Grave Fire (Pushmataha County) – 414 Acres / 70% Contained
• Blue Hole Fire (McCurtain County) – 1,153 est. Acres / 80% Contained
• House Pad Fire (McCurtain County) – 15 Acres / 80% Contained, 1 Structure Lost
• Dry Creek Fire (Pushmataha County) – 27 Acres / 100% Contained, 2 Structures
Fire Activity with OFS Response outside of the Protection Area: No New Activity
• Four Mile Creek Fire (Lincoln County) – 300 est. acres / 75% Contained, 1 Firefighter Injury, 2 Structures
OFS Prescribed Fire Activity: No New Activity
Fire Department Statistics: Moderate Initial Attack Activity
Refer to: https://ag.ok.gov/divisions/forestry-services/ for the most current burn
ban information and links to specific burn ban proclamations.
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