Agricultural News
Rain Chances Across the State Ward Off Fire Danger, but Burn Bans still Cover Several Counties
Mon, 10 Oct 2022 12:49:44 CDT
Statewide Discussion: Rain chances in the forecast span much of Oklahoma today with the best opportunity for wetting rainfall amounts in southwest Oklahoma extending into parts of central Oklahoma. Southeastern Oklahoma, where fire occurrence is running well above normal, is less likely to see rainfall today although relative humidity values will be higher than in previous days combined with sky cover holding fine-dead fuel moisture from dipping into the critical range. Composite fuel moisture, however, remains concerning with Energy Release Component nearing the 100th percentile. The western Oklahoma Panhandle counties will also likely remain dry and benefit from wetting rains from seven days ago has begun to wane. Lacking critical fire weather inputs, initial attack activity is expected to be successful noting continued suppression difficulty in southeastern Oklahoma. A somewhat stronger weather system moves in on Tuesday presenting some severe weather potential in southwestern Oklahoma extending into central and north-central counties will again dampen fire danger concerns across much of western Oklahoma. Precipitation chances remain slim for southeastern Oklahoma, and wind speeds increase to 5-15 mph with higher gusts with increased instability.
Southeastern, Eastern & South-Central Oklahoma: Overcast skies are expected to persist southeast through much of the day with afternoon temperatures 79°-86° and relative humidity values hovering around 37% holding fine-dead fuel moisture values around 7% with some localized 6% observations likely. While improved 1-hour fuel moisture may limit ignition potential, and fire that becomes established will continue to exhibit problematic fire behavior. Light southerly winds will support rates of fire spread in grass-dominated fuels around 35 ft/min with flame lengths 4.5-8 ft. Timber fuels will move at 10-33 ft/min with FL 4-7 ft. With increasing wind speeds on Tuesday, ROS in grass-dominated fuels will move around 90 ft/min with FL 8-15 ft. ROS in timber fuels will be 19-40 ft/min with FL 5-9 ft.
Western & North-Central Oklahoma: Rain chances are minimal in the Panhandle counties where temperatures this afternoon will warm into the 71°-77° range. Relative humidity values today are not expected to fall below 30% limiting ignition potential today. Southwest winds around 10 mph with some gusts nearing 20 mph will support head fire rates of spread 70-95 ft/min with flame lengths around 9 ft. Tuesday will bring slightly warmer temperatures, lower humidity values and stronger southwest winds. For Tuesday, temperature in the Panhandle counties will range from 78°-85° with afternoon relative humidity values 17-28% yielding fine-dead fuel moisture values 4-5%. Southwest winds sustained 10-18 mph with some gusts around 25 mph will support head fire rates of spread on established fires at 90-140 ft/min with flame lengths 9-14 ft.
Near-Term: Climatologically, weather patterns tend to become more dynamic mid- to late-October offering some rainfall potential. However, given the depth and severity of drought indices and the current state of fuels, the probability of unseasonal fire behavior should be anticipated. Dry conditions are expected mid-week ahead another weather system later this weekend.
Burn Bans:
Refer to: https://ag.ok.gov/divisions/forestry-services/ for the most current burn ban information and links to specific burn ban proclamations.
NE Area – 4 Fires Burned 60.5 Acres (Cause: 1-Escaped Debris, 3-Incendiary)
EC Area – 1 Fire Burned 368 Acres (Cause:1-Incendiary)
SE Area – 10 Fires Burned 76.2 Acres (Cause: 1-Escaped Debris, 1-Electrical, 8-Incendiary)
Large / Significant Fire Activity within the OFS Protection Area:
• Wildhorse Fire (LeFlore County – 368 Acres, 60% Contained
Fire Activity with OFS Response outside of the Protection Area
• 4250 Fire (Choctaw Cunty) – 786 Acres, 60% Contained
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