War Between Russia and Ukraine to Continue Impacting Wheat Prices and Potentially CornThu, 03 Nov 2022 16:43:45 CDT
This week on SUNUP is Dr. Kim Anderson, Oklahoma State University Extension grain market economist. During this week's edition, Anderson talks about the factors impacting commodity markets and crop conditions.
“President Putin announced that he was not going to support Ukraine exporting wheat, and wheat prices went up 55 cents per bushel,” Anderson said. “Then he announced that he would support the export of wheat, and prices fell 48 cents a bushel. So, we have prices right now somewhere around the 9-dollar level. The basis is 46 cents.”
If you are looking at forward contracting wheat for the 2023 crop, Anderson said it is $8.75 with a minus 55 cent basis off of that Kansas City July contract for 2023.
“Corn continues to move in an 18-cent range sideways,” Anderson said. “Prices are about 6 dollars for forward contracting for 2023, and the basis is 25 cents under that ’23 December corn contract.”
We had a rally in soybeans, Anderson said, not because of the war but because of the weather in South America. There was a 36-cent price increase to prices around $14.19.
“Forward contract for beans is around $13.10 for the ’23 crop with a minus 85 cent basis,” Anderson said.
Cotton is falling from $1.20 about a month ago down to 72 cents early this week and back up to 79 cents, Anderson said, so it looks like cotton has probably bottomed out.
“The USDA released the crops condition report for wheat,” Anderson said. “84 percent of Oklahoma wheat is planted, and the average is 85.62 percent of that wheat has emerged, and the average is 66 percent.”
36 percent of that wheat is in the poor to very poor category, Anderson said, and only 11 percent at good to excellent.
“A big factor for wheat is that war between Russia and Ukraine, and it looks like that war is going to be dragged out over years,” Anderson said. “It appears that when something happens to disrupt the flow of product out of Ukraine, we get about a 50 to 60 cent price move. We saw that this last week.”
Ukraine’s wheat right now, Anderson said, is worth about 60 cents a bushel.
This week on SUNUP:
• Brian Arnall, OSU Extension precision nutrient management specialist, has soil fertility guidance for wheat producers.
• Wes Lee, OSU Extension Mesonet agricultural coordinator, discusses the total daily average solar radiation for the year so far. State Climatologist Gary McManus looks back at the month of October and how the recent rains impacted the drought monitor.
• Mark Johnson, OSU Extension beef cattle breeding specialist, talks with Parker Henley, OSU Extension beef seedstock management specialist, about fall vaccinations in cattle herds.
• Kim Anderson, OSU Extension grain marketing specialist, gives condition reports for Oklahoma crops.
• Barry Whitworth, OSU Extension veterinarian, discusses the recent uptick in rabies cases in the state and says livestock producers need to be extra careful when handling sick animals.
• We travel to Noble County for an OSU Extension workshop that helps producers determine how much or how little feed they’re giving their herds.
• Finally, we highlight the 2022 Ferguson College of Agriculture Distinguished Alumni and OSU Agriculture Champions. Dr. Tom Coon recognized the esteemed group at the recent OSU Agriculture Honors ceremony.
Join us for SUNUP:
Saturday at 7:30 a.m. & Sunday at 6 a.m. on OETA (PBS)
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