Derrell Peel Sees Beef Cow Culling to Set All-Time Record by the Fourth Quarter of 2022

Mon, 26 Sep 2022 10:03:29 CDT
Derrell Peel Sees Beef Cow Culling to Set All-Time Record by the Fourth Quarter of 2022

Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster, Ron Hays, is visiting with Oklahoma State University Livestock Market Economist, Dr. Derrell Peel, talking about the latest Cattle on Feed Report released by the USDA this past Friday.

“The September Cattle on Feed Report showed that placements of cattle during August were 100.4 percent of last year,” Peel said. “Marketing’s during August were 106.4 percent of last year, and that gives us an on-feed total that is just fractionally above a year ago of 100.4 percent.”

Peel said the September report did not have any major surprises and the numbers were close to expectations.

“It is a continuation to some extent to what we have been seeing,” Peel said. “If you look at some of the placements, they are even within a year ago, but they consist of about 4.2 percent increase in placements of cattle under 700 pounds. That is what we have been doing for several months now. Cattle over 700 pounds were down 1.5 percent, so it is more of the same there. It is a little less pronounced than we have been, and it may be an indication that we are finally going to turn the corner.”

At some point in time, Peel said feedlot inventories will come down, but for now feedlots have been successful at holding those inventories by placing lightweight cattle ahead of schedule. The drought has helped that, Peel said, by pushing more cattle into town.

The placements being on the high side of expectations is a sign that we are continuing to move lighter-weight cattle more quickly than normal.

“It is really consistent with what you see,” Peel said. “If you look at Oklahoma auction volume, feeder cattle volume for the last six weeks or so, it is up about 19 percent from last year’s total feeder cattle volume. Within that volume, the number of feeder cattle going through the actions that are over 600 pounds is down about 7 percent while the number of cattle that are under 600 pounds are up- It was up like 61 percent on a year-over-year basis.”

All of these factors reinforce that the drought is forcing producers to wean calves early and move them to town earlier. If they were summer stockers, Peel said, they may have been pulled early and marketed at a lighter weight because feed ran out.

“We only get to place them once, so you can place them early or, and if you do you don’t have them to place later,” Peel said. “ At some point, it is going to catch up with us.”

In the first part of the year, Peel said he was not surprised with how much beef cow culling we were seeing.

“Beef cow slaughter is up 13.3 percent year over year up to this point,” Peel said.

With one more quarter left in the year, Peel said he expects the percentage increase year-over-year will be a little smaller in the fourth quarter.

“We are going to end up probably double digits percentage up from last year and that means we are going to have a good net herd culling of over 13 percent, which will be an all-time record in terms of beef cow culling,” Peel said.

Click the LISTEN BAR below to listen to Ron Hays and Derrell Peel talking on the latest Cattle on Feed Report.

The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.

To view the September Cattle on Feed Report, click here.



Ron Hays Talks with Derrell Peel About September Cattle on Feed

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