Below is an analysis of the April WASDE and crop production reports from crop marketing specialist, Dr. Kim Anderson:
The was little new information in the April WASDE reports. The small changes in U.S. wheat supply and demand estimates are expected to be offset by small changes in the world’s wheat supply and demand estimates.
The big news (bad news for Oklahoma wheat producers) is the crop condition report that show Oklahoma wheat to be 46 poor to very poor and only 20 percent in the good to excellent category.
Kansas wheat condition was 61 percent in the poor to very poor category and only 13 percent in the good to very good category.
South Dakota only had 10 percent in the poor to very poor category and Montana only had one percent. Overall the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop could be near the 531 million bushels produced in 2022. The five-year average production for U.S. hard red winter wheat is 690 million bushels.
Both the WASDE and Crop Condition reports are supportive of Oklahoma wheat prices.
The May 12, 2023 WASDE will provide the first estimates for both the U.S. and world 2023/24 wheat marketing year production, use and ending stocks. The May WASDE has the potential to impact wheat prices much more than the April WASDE.
