Statewide Discussion: Dangerous heat will continue across southern Oklahoma during the week ahead holding elevated fire danger indices in place over the southwestern counties extending east along the Red River into extreme southeastern Oklahoma.
While most of the wildfire activity spurred by lightning ignitions on August 15 has been contained/controlled, a few of those fires continue to exhibit isolated hotspots where heavier fuels continue to combust. A cold front will edge into Oklahoma later today ushering in a brief period cooler temperatures across northern Oklahoma coupled with some storm chances favoring northeastern Oklahoma. Nonetheless, fire environment factors continue to point to the highest fire danger indices developing each afternoon/evening in southwestern Oklahoma along and south of a line from Roger Mills County to Tillman/Cotton County line. Lacking lightning potential in this area, probability of new wildfire occurrence will remain moderated noting that wildfires are trending toward increased resistance to control.
Today: Hot and dry conditions across most of the state through the weekend once again baked fuels increasing fuels availability to some extent. Live herbaceous fuel moisture is lowest in southwestern Oklahoma with a handful of locations tipping toward moisture regimes more indicative of dormant fuel state. Otherwise, herbaceous fuel moisture across the state is generally ‘normal’ or better. Generally light winds will limit fire spread potential offering very good probability of initial attack success.
• Southwest Oklahoma: Temperature will quickly heat up with highs in the 103°-108° range. Relative humidity values will
generally tap 20% noting that a few locations long the Red River will fall below 20% during peak heating late afternoon
driving fine-dead fuel moisture to 4%. Light westerly winds this morning will become southwest sustained 6-9 mph with
some higher gusts in the afternoon. Rangeland fuels will support head fire rates of spread 38-60 ft/min with flame lengths
4-7 ft.. Brush fuels will support a bit more vigorous fire behavior with short-range spotting.
• Extreme Southeast Oklahoma: Southern McCurtain County is more than 25 days separated from wetting rains and the
Idabel site registering nil for rainfall in the last 14 days resulting in declining live fuel moisture in both herbaceous and
woody fuels. Firefighters should anticipate increasing resistance to control and problematic fire behavior including
single/group tree torching, a transition to short-crown runs in pine plantations and short-range spotting. Temperature will
warm into the 96°-102° range with afternoon relative humidity values 30-36% yielding fine-dead fuel moisture at 5% during the late afternoon/early evening period. Variable winds sustained around 5 mph will support potential for shifting fire spread direction although rates of fire spread will generally be less than 50 ft/min in grass dominated fuels and around 20 ft/min in timber fuels with flame lengths 4-6 ft.
Near-Term: Through the week ahead, the fire danger focus will remain in southwestern Oklahoma where hot and dry conditions will continue and overnight moisture recovery wanes. East component winds early in the week will serve to limit fire spread potential while a return to a more southerly flow as the mid-level ridge flexes back into the area. A quick glance at Energy Release Component (right) highlights the area of highest concern and a transition to increasing resistance to control. Overall, initial attack efforts are expected to remain successful with limited large fire potential
(+300 acres) and a minimal significant fire threat (+5,000 acres).
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