Statewide Discussion: The break from 100° temperatures has been welcomed although meaningful rainfall has eluded most locations in Oklahoma during the past week as dry conditions persist. Both live and dead fuel moisture values are showing the strain of lagging moisture while the Drought Monitor is now expressing expansion of Extreme Drought indices in southwestern Oklahoma. The separation from wetting rains in southwestern Oklahoma combined with hot, summertime temperatures has baked the fuels thrusting some areas into dormancy. Elevated fire weather is expected
today and tomorrow afternoon/evening driving increasing potential for new fire occurrence. The highest concern will be focused in southwestern/western Oklahoma, although increasing separation from wetting rain and a dry airmass will pose elevated fire danger indices across most of Oklahoma.
Today: Moderate to marginal overnight moisture recovery in the western counties sets the stage for an extended burning period today. Central and eastern Oklahoma registered much better overnight moisture recovery although dry air will overspread the state resulting in enhanced fine-fuel receptiveness. Initial attack activity is expected to increase today, although large fire potential remains muted lacking wind-speeds supporting rapid fire growth and residual herbaceous live-fuel moisture.
- Southwestern Oklahoma: Temperature today registering 88-91° with relative humidity values 16-20% under clear skies will yield fine-dead fuel moisture values tapping 3% in some locations with 4% observations widespread. South winds this afternoon sustained 8-11 mph with some higher gusts will support head fire rates of spread in rangeland fuels 55-78 ft/min and flame lengths +/-8 ft. Relative humidity values will be slow to recover supporting an extended burning period.
- Western/Northwestern/North-Central Oklahoma: Comparatively higher live fuel moisture will retard fire spread potential offering good opportunity for initial attack success. Temperature will top out in the low 90°’s under clear skies with afternoon relative humidity 17-23% yielding fine dead fuel moisture values at 4% for most locations. South winds sustained 9-12 with some higher gusts will support moderate rates of spread in rangeland fuels. During peak burning conditions, head fire rates of spread around 55 ft/min should be anticipated. In those areas where separation from wetting rains exceeds 15 days, increased fire behavior potential is likely.
- Southeastern Oklahoma: Increasing initial attack activity in recent days is expected to continue ahead of some rainfall
potential associated with tropical system Francine. Today, temperature around 90° under mostly-clear skies and afternoon relative humidity values 26-32% will yield receptive fine fuels at 5%. Southeast winds sustained around 7 mph with limited gusts will limit overall fire spread potential offering good opportunity for successful initial attack. The more problematic fire behavior is reserved for the pine-dominated fuels where head fire rates of spread generally 25-35 ft/min and flame lengths averaging 5.5 ft. with some problematic fire behavior to be expected.
Near-Term: While the tropical system named Francine poses some potential for rainfall in parts of southeastern and eastern Oklahoma late Wednesday into Thursday, no appreciable rainfall is expected over the bulk of the state. Initial attack activity is expected to persist with limitied large fire potential. On Wednesday, elevated fire weather will again develop focused in western/northwestern Oklahoma while higher relative humidity values will lessen potential in central and eastern counties. A warming trend into the weekend coupled with continued dry conditions will hold fire danger in place across most of the state with the highest indices continuing across southwestern Oklahoma. All eyes are potential for the next round of rain/stroms early next week being mindful of increased potential for lightning ignited wildfires in the west. 
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