USDA released its September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Thursday. Going against analysts’ pre-report estimates, USDA raised corn production slightly, bumping the yield up to a record level.
Farm Director KC Sheperd visited with Rich Nelson at Allendale to discuss this month’s numbers. Nelson said this month’s report was neutral for wheat with no changes., “We are holding back on the wheat discussions until we see production revisions at the end of this month in the small grains summary.”
Nelson said that for this month’s report, corn and soybeans saw declines in stocks, but wheat remained neutral.
Nelson said the new crop numbers for stocks were lowered to 2.05 billion bushels. He noted that the USDA has a light decline in Russian production for this year and expects lower exports in the next few months, We are going to see lower production out of Russia and lower exports, which we haven’t seen yet, but they will be coming in the next two or three months we will see that trend begin to change.”
Nelson also discussed the potential for moderate yield problems due to drought and the USDA’s viewpoint for beef production. He concluded by mentioning that the next USDA report will likely see a light yield increase for corn and no major change for soybeans.
You can also view the full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
WHEAT
USDA expects farmers to harvest 1.982 bb of wheat in 2024-25, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. USDA will update its wheat production forecasts in its Small Grains Summary, which is scheduled to be released Sept. 30.
The projected season-average farm price remains at $5.70 per bushel.
USDA estimates U.S. ending wheat stocks at 828 million bushels for 2024-25, unchanged from August. The farm gate price of $5.70 per bushel also is unchanged.
Globally, USDA estimates world ending wheat stocks for 2024-25 at 257.22 mmt, increased from 256.62 mmt last month.
USDA estimates Ukraine’s wheat exports at 15.0 mmt, an increase from 14.0 mmt last month. USDA estimates Russian exports at 48.0 mmt, unchanged from August.
USDA pegs Ukrainian wheat production at 22.3 mmt, an increase from last month’s estimate of 21.6 mmt, while Russian production is unchanged at 83.0 mmt.
CORN
Corn production is projected at 15.186 billion bushels (bb), up 39 bushels from July, while the yield was pegged at a record 183.6 bushels per acre (bpa), up 0.5 bushel from last month.
Harvested acres remained at 82.7 million acres.
For demand, USDA projected total Feed and Residual use at 5.825 bb. Ethanol use is forecast at 5.45 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.665 with a 15-million-bushel (mb) decline in Food, Seed & Industrial use.
Exports for the 2024-25 crop are forecast at 2.3 bb.
Ending stocks for the new crop are projected at 2.057 bb, down 16 mb from August.
The farmgate price for 2024-25 is projected at $4.10 a bushel, down 10 cents from last month.
Looking at the 2023-24 “old crop,” ending stocks are pegged at 1.812 bb, down 55 mb in the carryover to the new crop.
Globally, USDA forecasts 2024-25 production at 1,218.57 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.25 mmt from August. Global ending stocks were pegged at 308.35 mmt, down 1.82 mmt from August. USDA forecasts 2024-25 Brazil’s corn production at 127 mmt and Argentina at 51 mmt.
For the global 2023-24 crop, ending stocks are projected at 308.52 mmt. USDA also held Brazil’s 2023-24 production at 122 mmt with exports pegged at 48 mmt. USDA also maintained Argentina’s production to 50 mmt with 35 mmt in exports.
SOYBEANS
USDA made very few changes to soybean forecasts, lowering production by 3 million bushels and leaving the national average yield unchanged at 53.2 bpa. Total production is forecast at 4.586 bb.
Ending stocks for the 2024-25 season declined by 10 mb to 550 mb, toward the low end of pre-report expectations. USDA lowered beginning stocks by 5 mb and raised residual use by 2 mb. The national average farm gate price was unchanged at $10.80 per bushel.
For 2023-24 season, USDA lowered ending stocks by 5 mb to 340 mb. The change was due to an increase in crush. The national average farm gate price also unchanged at $12.50 per bushel.
Globally, ending stocks for the 2024-25 season inched upward less than 1 million metric ton to 134.58 mmt, making only minor adjustments throughout. USDA’s forecast for Brazilian production, which is awaiting planting, is 169 mmt, while Argentina’s is 51 mmt. Both are unchanged from last month.
For the 2023-24 season, USDA put ending stocks at 112.25 mmt. USDA left Brazilian production unchanged at 153 mmt, but lowered Argentina’s crop by 0.9 mmt to 48.1 mmt.
LIVESTOCK
Thursday’s WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 2024. Beef production for 2024 was raised by 59 million pounds as cow slaughter in the second half of the year is expected to increase, and fed steer and heifer carcass weights are heavier.
Third-quarter steer prices in 2024 are expected to average $188 (down $5 from last month) and fourth-quarter steer prices are expected to average $183 (down $7 from last month). In 2025, steer prices in the first quarter are now expected to average $186 (down $3 from last month) and steer prices in the second quarter are expected to average $196 (down $4 from last month).
2024 beef imports increased by 140 million pounds, and beef exports for 2024 increased by 50 million pounds. Beef imports for 2025 increased by 10 million pounds, and beef exports for 2025 were increased by 100 million pounds.
