Statewide Discussion: Storms in north-central/northeastern Oklahoma yesterday evening provided wetting rainfall centered around Osage County and some lighter rainfall this morning moving into northcentral Oklahoma will provide a bit of relief from wildfire concerns locally. However, composite fuel moisture is very dry with a receptive fuelscape for most areas of the state. Given storm chances in the forecast, lightning ignition remains a concern. Rain chances do extend further south into Saturday evening and Sunday providing some optimism for wetting amounts in the driest parts of Oklahoma.
Today: A Heat Advisory spans most of central and eastern Oklahoma today, with temperatures nearly 20 degrees above normal, contributing to continued elevated wildfire danger across most of the state. The highest fire danger indices continue to be focused on the southwestern quarter of the state. Storm chances today are highest in the Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma. Any lightning-caused wildfire will likely be influenced by storm outflow winds resulting in erratic fire behavior including rapidly changing directions of spread, flare-ups and problematic fire behavior including single/group tree torching and short-range spotting.
- Southwestern Quarter of Oklahoma: A few isolated storms this morning may pass through the area this morning, coupled with good overnight moisture recovery, stalling the development of active burning conditions to some extent. Otherwise, temperature will again be in the upper-90°s to around 100° under mostly clear skies with afternoon relative humidity values 24-31% yielding fine-dead fuel moisture at 5% with some local 4% observations. South winds will be sustained 10-14 mph with some gusts around 18 mph. Established fires in rangeland fuels will exhibit head fire rates of spread 66-90 ft/min with flame lengths 7-9 ft.
- Northwestern Oklahoma: Wetting rains occurred across most of the Panhandle and isolated wetting amounts in the
northwestern counties will moderate concern some, although storm chances in the area will support potential for lightning ignition. In the northwestern counties, temperatures will tap the upper-90°’s with relative humidity values 24-29% this afternoon yielding receptive fine-dead fuels. Light and variable winds this morning will gradually become southerly sustained around 11 mph with some gusts approaching 20 mph. Erratic fire behavior should be expected in the vicinity of any storm cell. Generally, rangeland fuels will support head fire rates of spread 70-95 ft/min and flame lengths +/- 8 ft. Higher rates of spread and variable spread direction should be anticipated on any lightning ignition. - Central Oklahoma (Middle 1/3rd): Some locations may tap 100° again today with afternoon relative humidity values in the 30%’s. Grasses that have transitioned to dormancy will be readily receptive to ignition sources with fine-dead fuel moisture values at 5-6% across the area. Light winds into midday will become southerly sustained 7-10 mph supporting moderate fire spread potential. Grass-dominated fuels will exhibit rates of spread +/- 70 ft/min with flame lengths 10 ft. Fire behavior will moderate rapidly following sunset.
- Eastern Oklahoma: Relative humidity values will struggle to dip below 35% today with many locations settling in around 40% despite temperature warming into the upper-90°’s and possible 100° at a few locations. Fine-dead fuel moisture at 7% will hold probability of ignition in check and fires should be readily contained with initial attack efforts. Of note however, areas where eastern redcedar are prevalent will have a tendency to exhibit single/group tree torching and short-range spotting. South winds sustained around 5 mph will hold spread potential in grass-dominated fuels to less than 50 ft/min generally. Timber fuel types will exhibit much slower rates of spread although expect increased mop up demands given large diameter fuel moisture.
- Near-Term: The 3-Day QPF hold optimism for a wetting rainfall in the driest part of the state. Rain chances are highest Saturday evening through Sunday. Nearer to normal temperatures will be welcomed early in the week with some continued rain chances ahead of what currently looks like another dry stretch in the 6-10 day forecast period.
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