Statewide Discussion: Summer-like conditions continue across the state of Oklahoma with hot and dry conditions driving
intensifying drought indices and worsening composite fuel moisture. Fortunately, critical fire weather elements have remained absent. A cold front is progressing across northwestern Oklahoma but will likely wash out north and west of the I-44 corridor holding above normal temps in the state again today. Warm temperatures will continue through the weekend coupled with dry conditions. Elevated fire weather is expected to develop Saturday across the Oklahoma Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma as southerly winds become a bit gusty during the afternoon. Otherwise, dry fuels will support potential for an uptick in initial attack activity with good probability of success and limited large fire potential.
The Oklahoma Department of Environmental Quality has issued an Air Quality Alert for today (Friday) in both the
Oklahoma City and Tulsa metropolitan areas prompting a ban on open burning in the identified counties today.
Today: Light winds will limit fire spread potential today affording very good probability of successful initial attack efforts. A cold front has moved into northwestern Oklahoma but is expected to washout near the I-44 corridor. Temperatures northwest of the frontal boundary will range from the upper-70°s in the Panhandle to the upper-80°s in the northwestern counties while another day in the 90°s is expected across much of the state. Afternoon relative humidity values generally in the 25-25% range will hold 1 Hr. fuel moisture to 6% at most locations noting that both southwestern and southeastern Oklahoma counties will likely observe 4-5% observations during peak afternoon heating. Light and somewhat variable winds this morning will remain light through the day – northerly in the northwest and variable east winds in central and eastern Oklahoma. Rangeland and grass-dominated fuels will exhibit very manageable rates of fire spread with head fire ROS less than 60 ft/min and flame lengths +/- 6 ft. on established fires.
Saturday: Elevated fire weather will develop across the Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma with the return of temps in the 90°s and breezy southwest winds. Initial attack activity is expected to increase statewide through the weekend with hot/dry conditions. Lacking alignment of the strongest fire weather over the driest fuels, large fire potential remains low and initial attack activity is expected to remain successful.
- Oklahoma Panhandle / Northwestern Oklahoma: Temperature in the mid-90°s under clear skies with afternoon relative humidity values 10-23% will result in receptive grass fuels as fine-dead fuel moisture dips into the 3-4% range late in the afternoon. South-southwest winds sustained 12-17 mph with some gust over 20 mph will support moderate rates of fire spread. Rangeland fuel will exhibit head fire rates of spread 71-103 ft/min and flame lengths +/- 8 ft. Winds will calm with sunset and respectable overnight moisture recovery will stall potential for active fire behavior affording good probability of success on initial attack actions.
- Southwestern / Central Oklahoma (Middle 1/3rd): Very dry conditions continue with temperatures in the 89°-95° range. Afternoon relative humidity values 22-32% will support fine-dead fuel moisture values in the 4-6% range supporting receptive fuels. South winds will be light in southern Oklahoma increasing in the northern counties where south winds will be sustained 8-12 mph with some gusts around 20 mph in the far northern counties. Grass-dominated fuels will support head fire rates of spread 55-80 ft/min and flame lengths 6-9 ft. Firefighters should anticipate single/group tree torching where juniper is present and brush fuels to exhibit flare ups resulting in some short-range spotting.
- Eastern Oklahoma: Composite fuel moisture has rapidly degraded in recent days and resistance to control in the timber fuel types will begin increasing. Temperature 89°-94° under clear skies with relative humidity values 25-35% will yield fine-dead fuel moisture 5-6%. Although stressed and nearing the end of the growing season, live fuel moisture will continue to retard rapid fire growth. Southerly winds 3-8 mph will limit spread potential in grass-dominated fuels where ROS will top out around 50 ft/min with flame lengths 7-9 ft. Timber fuels will exhibit ROS generally less than 25 ft/min although potential for problematic fire behavior including single/group tree torching and short-range spotting is increasing.
Sunday: Another cold front will move onto the area although most of the state will remain registering temperatures in the 90°s. north-northeast winds are in the forecast with some gusts possibly 20 mph north and west of I-44. Relative humidity values will range from the low-20%s west to 35% east yielding another day of receptive fuels. Rates of spread in rangeland and grass fuels will generally be in the 70 ft/min area during peak burning conditions offering very good initial attack success although increased fire behavior should be anticipated where fuels are aligned with both wind and slope.
Near-Term: Current forecast data favors continuing warm/dry conditions into next week driving rapid drying of fuels, potential for drought intensification and increasing wildfire occurrence. No critical fire weather is showing up at this
time in the near-term although fires will begin to exhibit increasing resistance to control. The current drought monitor is concerning as we wind down the growing season and transition into fuels dormancy.
Burn Bans:
