Large / Significant Fire Activity within the OFS Protection Area:
- Low Water Fire (Delaware County) – 165 Acres / 100% Contained
- Brushy Ridge Fire (McCurtain County) – 158 Acres (est.) / 100% Contained
- Bow Mountain Fire (Pushmataha County) – 178 Acres / 100% Contained
Fire Activity with OFS Response outside of the Protection Area: - Rush Fire (Comanche County) – 12,400 Acres/48% Contained (OFS assisting Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge)
OFS Prescribed Fire Activity: No New Activity
Fire Department Activity: Moderate Initial Attack (9 Fires Burned 117.2 Acres)
Statewide Discussion: A Red Flag Warning is in effect today along and northwest of the I-44 corridor with high to extreme fire danger indices statewide. Above normal temperatures and strong/gusty winds over drought-cured fuels will pose potential for any established wildfire to exhibit extreme fire behavior including rapid rates of spread, torching, crown runs and spotting. Any recent fire and outdoor burning activities should be checked to ensure those fires are fully suppressed focusing effort on the north fire edges. Strong winds today will persist in the overnight hours although moisture recovery should be good. South winds continue Tuesday, stronger than today, although higher dewpoint temperatures will hold relative humidity values outside of critical threshold. Rain chances increase Wednesday for much of the state with highest probability in central and eastern regions.
Today: Critical and elevated fire weather over drought-cured fuels will pose a notable increase in large fire (+300 acres) probability today and a low to moderate risk of significant fire (+5,000 acres) occurrence. The highest potential today will be concentrated along a line basically from Washita County to Noble County where the alignment of Fire Environment indicators are highest. Nonetheless, the statewide wildfire threat today will support potential for rapid rates of fire spread, problematic fire behavior exhibiting a transition to extreme fire behavior on fully established wildfires exhibiting rates of spread 200 ft/min, torching, crown runs and extended spotting ranges. Firefighters should not attempt frontal assault given potential rates of spread and fireline intensity. One mitigating factor today may be a cirrus cloud shield slightly limiting insolation limiting overall probability of ignition – again this is only a slight mitigation. Use of aviation will likely be limited due to windspeed and gust spread.
OFS Resources: Suppression Groups are prepositioned at Weatherford and Guthrie. Aviation resources will likely be prohibited or limited due to wind speed and gust spread.
- North-Central Oklahoma: Temperature 87°-92° under partly-cloudy skies with afternoon relative humidity values 24-32% will yield receptive fine-dead fuel moisture at 5-6% for most locations. Winds will increase into the afternoon when south winds sustained 22-30 mph gusting 35-45 mph will support rapid rates of fire spread. Grass-dominated rangeland fuels will exhibit head fire rates of spread 170-240 ft/min (1.9-2.3 mph) with flame lengths 12-20 ft. Problematic and extreme fire behavior should be anticipated including torching, crown runs and spotting to ¼ mile. Winds will persist through the evening and overnight although moisture recovery will be good moderating fire behavior to some extent.
- Southwest Oklahoma: Temperature 89°-93° under partly-cloudy skies with afternoon relative humidity values 19-24% will yield 1-Hr fuel moisture at 5% although 4% observations should be expected if sky cover is less than 40%. South winds sustained 17-22 gusting over 40 mph at times will drive potential for rapid rates of fire spread in rangeland fuels. Established wildfires will exhibit head fire rates of spread 170-260 ft/min (1.9-3.1 mph) and 12-15 ft flame lengths. Mixed fuels (grass/brush) will present ROS +/- 90 ft/min and FL 8-12 ft with frequent flare-ups and torching resulting in spotting distances up to ¼ mi. Winds persist through the night and heavier fuel concentrations will continue to present problematic fire behavior.
- Western/Northwestern Oklahoma: Partly-cloudy skies are expected to persist limiting fine-dead fuel moisture from bottoming out although we will need to watch for a clearing line into the afternoon which will ramp up overall fuels receptiveness. Temperature +/-90° and afternoon relative humidity values 15-24% will yield fine-dead fuel moisture at 6% although if the cloud deck dissipates 4% observations are likely. South winds this afternoon will be sustained 17-27 mph with some gusts approaching 45 mph. Rangeland fuels have potential to exhibit head fire rates of spread 155-220 ft/min (1.7-2.5 mph) and flame lengths 11-14 ft. Problematic to extreme fire behavior should be anticipated including torching and extended range spotting.
- Central/Southern Oklahoma: Temperature in the upper-80°s to around 90° under some sky cover early and afternoon relative humidity values 28-34% will yield fine-dead fuel moisture at 5-6%. South winds 15-21 mph gusting to 35 mph will support rapid rates of spread in grass-dominated fuels and problematic fire behavior in mixed and timber fuel types. Grass-dominated fuels will exhibit head fire rates of spread 120-155 ft/min with flame lengths 10-12 ft.
- Eastern/Southeastern Oklahoma: Given the stresses on composite fuel moisture, problematic fire behavior is again anticipated overriding somewhat improved afternoon relative humidity values. Clearing skies with temperature in the upper-80°s and relative humidity values down to 29-35% will yield fine-dead fuel moisture at 6%. South winds 12 mph (south) to +20 mph (north) gusting at times to 25-30 mph will drive rapid rates of spread in grass dominated fuels. ROS at 122-170 ft/min with flame lengths 10-13 ft should be expected in grasslands while ROS +/-30 ft/min is expected in timber fuel types where frequent problematic fire behavior observations are anticipated.
Tuesday: Overnight moisture recovery is forecast to be very good although stout winds continue overnight intensifying even further during day. Relative humidity values will be improved ranging from 21% in the western Panhandle to +40% across much of the state limiting overall fine-fuel receptiveness. New wildfire occurrence should be less frequent than the anticipation for today although any fire will exhibit both resistance to control and suppression difficulty. Temperatures will be slightly cooler in the 80°s with average relative humidity values around 40% holding fine-dead fuel moisture outside of critical range. South winds, however, will be sustained above 25 mph for most of the state with some gusts topping 50 mph potentially. Established wildfires will exhibit rates of spread +220 ft/min in rangeland fuels.
Near-Term: Following two concerning days of fire danger, precipitation chances increase on Wednesday and persist into the weekend. Should the forecast amounts be realized a dent in the drought is expected along with some reprieve from persistent fire danger. The 5-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast hold strong optimism for wetting rainfall amounts for most of the state – especially those areas where composite fuels are in dire straits.