Statewide Discussion: The past two days have proven to be very challenging with elevated to near-critical fire weather over drought-cured fuels. As forecasted, fire sizes have not been on par with what is observed in the full dormant season, however fireline intensity, resistance to control and transition to extreme fire behavior has proven to require higher resource commitment during initial attack and heavy resource commitment during extended mop-up efforts. Critical fire weather has potential to develop over dry fuels in the west today after some low rain chances this morning. Ongoing fires from previous days in central and eastern Oklahoma will be challenged by strong southerly winds ahead of increasing rain/storm chances late this afternoon into the evening.
Today: Red Flag Warning in effect today from Noon through 8:00 PM spanning western Oklahoma. Despite some low rain chances this morning, critical fire weather will develop in western Oklahoma as very dry air pushes into the area coupled with stout southwest winds over dry fuels ahead of an approaching cold front. The ongoing fire activity from yesterday across the state will be subjected to challenging conditions ahead of rain and storm
chances building in late afternoon and evening. Outside of storm development, the best opportunity for wetting rains resides in eastern/southeastern Oklahoma. Nonetheless, this will be a dynamic fire/weather day across Oklahoma posing significant concern on active fire grounds. Firefighters will need to remain aware of changing conditions with storm development including intense flare-ups, rapid changes in spread direction from outflow winds and extreme fire behavior potential. OFS Resources: OFS Suppression Groups and firefighting resources are committed to ongoing fires at this time and supporting initial attack when requested dependent upon availability.
- Western/Northwestern Oklahoma (Warned Area): Following some rain chances this morning, very dry air will push into the area eliminating the benefits from light rains that may develop. Temperature will range from 75° (north)-87°(south) with afternoon relative humidity values 13-23% yielding very receptive fine-dead fuel moisture at 3%. Southwest winds sustained 19-24 mph gusting around 35 mph will support rapid rates of spread in rangeland fuels. Grass-dominated rangelands will exhibit head fire rates of spread 165-240 ft/min (1.8-2.7 mph) with flame lengths 10-15 ft. Problematic to extreme fire behavior fire behavior should be anticipated including group torching, crown runs in brush fuels and spotting. The clockwise wind shift associated with the frontal passage is expected to occur late evening.
- North-Central/Central Oklahoma: Wildfire occurrence yesterday will be subjected to stout winds today although higher relative humidity values will throttle back the fie fuel receptiveness a bit. The large fuel size classes will continue to exhibit problematic fire behavior meriting extensive resource commitment today. Temperature will top out in the low 80°s under persistent sky cover with relative humidity values struggling to dip below 45% holding 1-Hr. fuels above 7%. Winds will become southwesterly this afternoon sustained 17-25 mph with some gusts topping 35 mph at times. Grass dominated fuels should offer better suppression opportunity than yesterday with head fire rates of spread +/-150 ft/min and flame lengths 10-12 ft. Rain/Storm chances build into the afternoon east of the dryline and will likely pose an increase in fire behavior with ROS nearer to 200 ft/min (2.3 mph) and a brief period of extreme fire behavior potential.
- Southern Oklahoma: Ahead of some increasing rain/storm chances, temperature will be in the low- to mid-80°s under
lingering clouds with afternoon relative humidity values 35 – +50% holding fine-dead fuel moisture to around 7% or higher. Southerly winds sustained 13-20 mph with higher gusts will challenge recent fire activity especially where heavier fuels are concentrated. Those rain/storm chances around 50% will increase into the overnight hours. As such, fire behavior will likely be muted although there are many complexities in the forecast. Should the system under-deliver, grass dominated fuels may exhibit head fire rates of spread +/-120 ft/min with 9 ft flame lengths. Consistent with recent fire behavior observations, expect potential for problematic fire behavior in juniper and brush fuels. - Eastern/Southeastern Oklahoma: Severe weather potential ramps up this evening and overnight. As this system
approaches rapid increases in fire behavior may be observed with erratic rates of spread and problematic fire behavior
especially on the going fire incidents. Initial attack activity today should be less than in previous days give fine-dead fuel moisture values holding above 7% with temps in the 80°s, relative humidity values above 50% and lingering cloud cover. Southerly winds sustained 12-20 mph with higher gusts will support active burning in heavier fuels, however new fire activity should remain muted with grassland head fire rates of spread +/-95 ft/min offering much improved probability of initial attack success.
Thursday: While rainfall occurring overnight will need to be assessed with regards to changes in fire danger overall, Thursday presents much less threat from wildfire occurrence. Following the cold front and storm chances, dry conditions are expected although improved atmospheric moisture and much calmer winds will support reduced fire danger and greatly improved probability of successful initial attack.
Near-Term: Friday will be another dry day in large part with moderate fire danger indices supporting good probability of initial attack success. Rain/storm chances build in for most of the state by Friday evening with a wetter pattern for period following. The 5-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast hold strong optimism for solidly wetting amounts. Important in this forecast is the duration of the wetter pattern and the potential
improvement in composite fuel moisture.
County Burn Bans: Click HERE for the most current burn ban information.
