USDA on Tuesday cut Argentina’s soybean production by 3 million metric tons (mmt) to 49 mmt, while leaving Brazil’s unchanged at 169 mmt. Global ending stocks declined by 4 mmt to 124 mmt, below the range of pre-report expectations. Domestic ending stocks were left unchanged.
USDA cut both Argentina and Brazil’s corn production estimates by 1 mmt, to 50 mmt and 126 mmt, respectively.
USDA released its February Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Tuesday. Farm Director KC Sheperd spoke with Rich Nelson at Allendale about the latest Report.
According to Nelson, the latest World Agriculture and Supply Estimates (WASDE) report offered few surprises. “Overall for the discussion point, not really too much to see for some of these numbers,” Nelson commented. Domestic balance sheets for both corn and soybeans remained largely unchanged, with ending stocks considered “more of a normal supply” for corn at 1.5 billion bushels and soybeans at 380 million bushels. Nelson noted the shift from earlier projections of heavier supplies. “Keep in mind, at the start of the year, we were talking 2.1, which will be a heavy supply discussion on this.”
While the domestic front remained stable, some adjustments were made to South American production estimates. “We saw Argentine corn and Brazilian corn numbers drop by 1 million tons,” Nelson explained. Soybean numbers saw a decrease in Argentina by 3 million tons, though Brazil’s figures remained untouched. “So overall the trade’s gonna stay kind of neutral for corn and soybeans.”
Wheat, however, garnered some attention. While the US balance sheet saw only a minor decline, “Between changes for exports for EU, Ukraine, and Russia, they lowered the view of competition by a full 2 million tons,” Nelson pointed out. This adjustment could be seen as “lightly supportive for wheat.”
The conversation inevitably turned to the looming presence of tariffs. Nelson noted the current “light amount” of easing concerns, citing the 30-day stay on tariffs against Canada and Mexico and the lack of new tariffs on grains and meat in China’s retaliation. “So overall, for now, the tariff discussion has been lightly eased here.”
However, the ever-present weather remains a significant factor. Nelson highlighted forecasts indicating “a light amount of dryness here for the spring discussion” in hard red winter wheat areas, potentially impacting production. “Traders are noting for the summer weather forecast, maybe a little concern still remaining for Oklahoma and Kansas,” he related.
While the Midwest isn’t currently facing severe threats, Nelson suggested the weather could lead to “maybe a light threat to winter wheat production, specifically hard red,” and potentially impact corn and soybean yields.
Cotton saw minor adjustments, with production unchanged and ending stocks slightly raised. “This is a little larger than the prior two years,” Nelson noted, adding that new crop acreage numbers will be a key focus in the coming weeks.
On the livestock front, Nelson described the report as “more or less reasonable.” He explained the adjustments to beef production figures, which were previously lowered due to the Mexican border closure and screwworm concerns. “On this month they put them back in,” he said, resulting in a projected 1.5% decrease in beef production for the year. Pork production, on the other hand, is expected to rise by 2.7%, a point of concern for some traders.
Looking ahead, Nelson highlighted several key events. “In just two weeks time, we have USDA’s own annual outlook conference,” where trend yields for corn and soybeans will be released. The prospective plantings report at the end of March will provide the first survey-based estimate of planted acres. Finally, in May, USDA will release its first view of new crop balance sheets. “So, as it stands right now, things are picking up,” Nelson concluded. “Old crop news is starting to subside and kind of quiet down. New crop certainly will get a lot more interest in these coming weeks.”
For more information, contact Allendale at +1 800-262-7538 or visit allendalehub.com.
WHEAT
USDA estimates 2024-2025 domestic wheat ending stocks at 794 million bushels, down 4 million bushels from 798 mb in January. USDA estimated wheat exports at 850 mb, unchanged from last month. Imports were estimated at 130 mb, also the same as in January.
The average U.S. farmgate price for wheat also was unchanged at $5.55 per bushel.
Domestic use was estimated at 1.154 billion bushels, up 4 mb from last month.
Exports came in at 850 mb, the same as January.
USDA estimates world wheat production at 793.79 million metric tons, a slight increase from 793.24 mmt last month. World wheat ending stocks were estimated at 257.56 mmt, a decrease from 258.82 mmt in January.
Wheat production in Argentina was estimated at 17.7 mmt, up 0.2 mmt from January. Australian production was estimated at 32 mmt, unchanged from last month.
Wheat exports from Russia are estimated at 45.5 mmt, down 0.5 mmt from last month. USDA estimates Ukraine exports at 15.5 mmt, also down 0.5 mmt.
CORN
The farmgate price for 2024-25 was increased 10 cents a bushel to $4.35 a bushel.
That was the only change USDA made in domestic corn numbers.
Corn production for the 2024-25 crop was 14.867 billion bushels (bb). USDA held the national yield at 179.3 bushels per acre. Harvested acres were 82.9 million.
For demand, projected total Feed and Residual use is 5.775 bb. Ethanol use is forecast at 5.5 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.665 bb.
Corn exports are pegged at 2.45 bb.
Ending stocks for the 2024-25 crop were 1.54 bb.
Globally, USDA also lowered production for both Brazil and Argentina. Brazil’s production was lowered 1 mmt to 127 mmt, and Brazil’s exports were also lowered 1 mmt to 46 mmt. Argentina’s production was cut 1 mmt to 50 mmt, but exports were held at 36 mmt, the same as last month.
Globally, 2024-25 corn beginning stocks came in at 315.81 million metric tons, down 1.65 mmt. Global ending stocks were pegged at 290.31 mmt, down 3.03 mmt.
SOYBEANS
USDA left the U.S. soybean supply and demand balance sheet unchanged for the 2024-25 crop year, except for lowering the national average farmgate price by a dime to $10.10 per bushel.
Production was pegged at 4.366 billion bushels, imports at 20 million bushels and beginning stocks at 342 mb, for total supplies of 4.729 billion bushels. USDA anticipates 2.41 bb being crushed, 1.825 bb being exported, 78 mb being used as seed and 36 mb in the residual category.
Ending stocks were unchanged at 380 mb.
Globally, USDA cut ending stocks to 124.34 mmt, 4.03 mmt less than last month. The largest change came in production, particularly for Argentina, which was trimmed 3 mmt to 49 mmt. Brazil’s production was unchanged at 169 mmt.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
Red meat, poultry, and egg supply and use estimates for 2024 are adjusted to reflect December production, ending stock, and trade data. For 2025, the beef production forecast is raised from last month. On February 1, 2025, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced the resumption of cattle imports from Mexico through approved facilities and newly implemented protocols to mitigate the spread of New World Screwworm. Additionally, the USDA’s January Cattle report estimated a larger calf crop for 2024 and a smaller decline in cattle outside feedlots than previously expected. As a result, higher placements are expected for the year and slaughter is raised, primarily in the second half of the year. Dressed weights are also raised.
Pork production is raised as higher weights throughout the year more than offset the slower rate of slaughter expected in the first quarter. Broiler production is unchanged, with an expected slower rate of slaughter in the first quarter, in part due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling, offset by increased production in the third quarter. Turkey production is also lowered on HPAI-related culling and the latest hatchery data. Egg production is reduced in every quarter of 2025 due to HPAI-related culling reported through early February, as the flock is expected to steadily rebuild, particularly in the second half of the year.
Beef exports for 2025 are raised on the increase in production and continued strong global beef demand. Beef imports are unchanged.
Pork exports are lowered for the second half of the year on slower-than-previously-expected growth in several key export markets. The broiler export forecast is lowered on recent trade data and increased global export competition. The turkey export forecast is lowered on reduced domestic supplies.
For 2025, cattle prices are raised for all four quarters on recent prices and continued strong beef demand. Hog prices are raised for the first quarter on recent prices. The 2025 broiler price forecast is unchanged, as a lower forecast for the first quarter based on recent prices is offset by raised price expectations for the second half of the year. The turkey price forecast is lowered on recent prices and continued weakness in demand. Egg prices are raised for all four quarters, as the flock recovers from the HPAI-related reductions reported through early February. Milk supply and use estimates for 2024 are adjusted to reflect December domestic and trade data.
You can also view the full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
