In the not-so-distant future, the global population will peak. The impacts to food and agricultural demand will be felt sooner as populations trend older. “The Big Shrink,” a new multi-report series from Terrain, examines what these realities mean for the U.S. agricultural industry and what opportunities may arise.
Terrain is a team of ag economists and analysts who provide expert analysis and confident forecasting to the customers of AgCountry® Farm Credit Services, American AgCredit®, Farm Credit Services of America® and Frontier Farm Credit®. The team helps farmers and ranchers anticipate what may lie ahead, whether that’s three months or 30 years from now.
“Populations have already peaked in many of the U.S.’s major trade-partner countries,” explains John Newton, Ph.D., executive head of Terrain. “What will drive success for farmers and ranchers in just a few decades will likely look very different than what has worked for the last 30 years. Historically, success was defined by growing on-farm yield and productivity, knowing that the agricultural supply chain could export the ‘extra’ production to feed the world. While the need for on-farm efficiency won’t go away, the revenue streams and value drivers will likely change as populations around the world reach their peak. U.S. farmers and ranchers are the best in the world, and they can rise to this occasion.”
In Terrain’s projections, the global population will peak between 2065 and 2070 at 9.38 billion people. These figures are sooner and lower than the U.N.’s current “most likely scenario” projections — 2084 at 10.3 billion people — after its last set of downward revisions due to global fertility rates and population estimates. As explained in report No. 1 of “The Big Shrink,”“How Will Agriculture Navigate the Baby Bust?” the driving factor for Terrain’s projections is rapidly falling fertility rates around the world.
Report No. 2, “Best Trade Friends Forever?” analyzes the risk associated with the export portfolios for corn, sorghum, soybeans and wheat. This report outlines why investments to diversify and modernize exports over the next decade will be important for success in American agriculture.
Read the first two reports of “The Big Shrink” at TheBigShrink.terrainag.com. More reports will be added throughout 2025 to help the industry consider how a peaking population may impact demand for products such as tree nuts, animal protein and dairy; how agricultural policy may evolve to help farmers navigate these new challenges and opportunities; and more.
