Farmers Business Network (FBN) has released its annual survey of planted acres, offering insights ahead of the USDA’s official report. Farm Director KC Sheperd caught up with Cody Bills, representing FBN, who shared key findings, highlighting significant shifts in crop acreage across the United States.
“This is the fifth year that we’ve done this survey, and we’ve been really happy with our results over the last four years,” Bills stated, emphasizing the survey’s reliability. “We’ve had a standard error, standard mean error of about 1.2 million acres. Now that seems like a lot, but when you think about it in terms of percent, it’s just a 1.33% standard error.” He further noted the survey’s accuracy compared to analyst estimates: “That compares to an average analyst guess that has about a 2.04 standard error…just about 35% more accurate than the average analyst guess.”
The survey, which garnered responses from nearly 1,000 FBN members, primarily focused on corn and soybean acreage. “The way I think about this report is it is a corn and soybean acreage report. That’s where we have the most confidence because we have the most participants reporting on their corn and soybean acreage,” Bills explained.
Key findings indicate a notable increase in corn acreage. “Corn acres, according to the data, suggests that we would see 95 and a half million acres. So that’s up 4.9 million acres from last year, and it’s about one and a half million acres above that ag outlook forum that was released in in January,” Bills reported. Conversely, soybean acreage is projected to decrease. “Soybeans, it’s pointing more toward 83 and a half million acres. So that’s down 3.6 million acres from last year, and about 500,000 acres below what the Ag Outlook Forum suggested.”
Bills also addressed wheat acreage, a significant crop in Oklahoma. “We’re projecting 46 point 3 million acres of wheat. So that would be 200,000 acres up over last year, but 700,000 acres below the Ag Outlook Forum.” He noted regional shifts in wheat planting, particularly in North Dakota, Montana, and Kansas. “In Kansas, we did see a shift out of winter wheat into corn, and that was pretty notable there.”
Cotton and sorghum acreage also saw adjustments. “Cotton was 11.2 million acres,” Bills stated, noting regional variations. “We also saw, particularly in the Mississippi area, shifts out of cotton and into corn.” Sorghum acreage is projected at “5.8 million acres, compared to 6.3 million last year.” Bills attributed this to “the uncertainty on policy” affecting demand.
The shift towards corn planting is largely attributed to price incentives. “When you look at corn, we had a 470 spring price versus 466 last year. So we’re about where we were last year; soybeans’ spring price was $10.54; it’s a little over $1 lower than where we were last year,” Bills explained. He also cited demand uncertainties. “There’s just uncertainty on the demand side of the equation, and then on the supply side of the equation, South America is increasing ending stocks.”
Producers can access the full report on FBN’s website. “We posted on the Farmers Business Network, so that’s where you’ll be able to find it. So I would go to fbn.com,” Bills advised. He also highlighted FBN’s Price Transparency Tool: “You go to FBN, submit a receipt from one of your past input purchases, and it activates your ability to see price transparency, historical prices, for these inputs that you’re purchasing.”
Click here to see the Plantings Intentions Report.
Click here to see the Price Transparency Report.
