Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, offers his economic analysis of the beef cattle industry as part of the weekly series known as the “Cow Calf Corner,” published electronically by Dr. Peel, Mark Johnson, and Paul Beck. Today, Dr. Peel discusses how critical this time of the year is for herd restocking decisions.
Pastures are greening up quickly in Oklahoma. April and May are critical months that set the stage for forage conditions for the bulk of the grazing season. At the current time there are no major drought concerns in the state. However, the northwest one-third of the state has received less than 50 percent of normal rainfall in the last 60 days (Figure 1). According to the Drought Monitor, there are no areas of D3 and D4, but 40 percent of the state is in D1 and D2. This about matches the U.S., which has just under 40 percent D1 and worse but less than nine percent D3 and D4. However, it is the time of year when marginally dry conditions can deteriorate rapidly with warming temperatures and spring winds. On the other hand, good moisture through May can ensure enough pasture and hay production to make a drought later in the year more manageable.
Conditions in much of the beef cattle region in the middle of the country are expected to remain threatening. La Niña conditions have faded to ENSO-neutral conditions that are expected to persist through the summer at least. However, La Niña tendencies will linger on through the middle of the year. The latest seasonal drought outlook suggests that drought conditions will persist and expand in the Plains, from north to south. However, the near-term outlook calls for above average chances of precipitation in Oklahoma.
Precipitation this time of year often arrives in the form of severe storms that typically include wind damage, hail and tornados. My recent travels in central Oklahoma confirm that many ponds are low and the localized heavy rain events that accompany severe weather are the best chance to recharge pond water levels. Water quantity and quality may be the first limiting factor if dry conditions persist.
Depending on their location in the state, many cattle producers are continuing to act with caution, stocking conservatively and tempering production plans given the potential forage limitations ahead. Certainly, the continuing drought threat is one factor that is preventing more aggressive restocking, heifer retention and herd rebuilding. Oklahoma did show some increase in beef cow numbers in 2024, but additional growth is likely to be limited as long as forage conditions are uncertain.
