USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey recently addressed farm broadcasters, offering a comprehensive outlook for U.S. weather in 2025 and reflecting on the numerous significant weather disasters already experienced this year. Rippey began by acknowledging the challenging weather patterns, stating, “I hope you avoided some of those heavy rain showers yesterday because I got caught in one, and I’m a meteorologist.”
Rippey highlighted the crucial role of the weather team within the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist in supporting supply and demand estimates. He also noted the long history of USDA’s involvement in weather information, mentioning the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, which dates back to 1924. A significant part of USDA’s weather-related work has been the U.S. Drought Monitor, which Rippey co-authors. “Drought Monitor has been around since the late 1990s I’m one of the six original authors, and only one of two that remains as a lead author at this time,” he explained, emphasizing its critical role in drought disaster assistance, having facilitated the payout of $13.5 billion through the Livestock Forage Disaster Program alone since 2008.
Looking at 2025, Rippey pointed out the numerous weather extremes already witnessed. “We’re a third of the way through the year, but we have already had a lot of significant U.S. weather disasters. So far this year, flooding has already twice struck the mid-south and lower Midwest. We’re still dealing with that in North Central Texas through Northeastern Oklahoma – big flood event there.”
Despite the wet April in some regions, significant drought persists across the U.S. “More than a third of the country is currently experiencing drought, 37%, according to the US Drought Monitor, with the main regions being the northern plains and the Southwest.” He also noted multiple severe weather outbreaks and significant wildfires early in the year.
Turning to the forecast, Rippey discussed the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions in the equatorial Pacific, which are currently neutral. “The current status at the end of April for that La Niña zone in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific shows ENSO neutral conditions. We expect those odds to stay greater than 50% at least through August, September, and October. That takes us through the 2025 growing season.”
While there’s a possibility of a La Niña returning later in the year, neutral conditions are expected to dominate the growing season. Rippey also noted that despite some regional drought, particularly in the northern Plains and Southwest, the overall outlook for major crops like corn and soybeans appears relatively optimistic heading into the growing season. “Corn, only 20% in drought, and soybeans, only 15%. You have to get to some of our Great Plains crops to see the higher numbers.”
Looking ahead, Rippey cautioned about potential drought expansion or intensification in the western and central U.S., and possibly a “cool drought” in the upper Midwest. However, the Southern Plains are expected to see drought eradication. He also highlighted an increased potential for an early and active wildfire season in California and the Northwest. Regarding the hurricane season, Rippey cited forecasts indicating a higher-than-average number of named storms and a slightly elevated chance of a major hurricane strike along the U.S. coastline.
In response to questions about potential impacts from NOAA staff cuts and the use of third-party weather data, Rippey stated, “We have not seen any immediate impacts at this point, but stay tuned, and I would definitely ask NOAA leadership about that.” He also directed farmers seeking to report drought impacts to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s reporting system or to work with their state climatologists.
