In the southern plains, the winter wheat harvest is nearly at the end- much later than normal and appears to be smaller than was forecast by USDA in the June USDA Crop Production report. All three states are past the 80% mark on harvest completed as of the start of this week.
Oklahoma’s wheat crop is forecast to be slightly smaller in July compared to the June forecast and also under that of 2024 production. The July First report predicts a 104.5 million bushel crop, based on 38 Bushels Per Acre yield on 2.75 million acres harvested. The difference from June to July was the drop of one bushel per acre yield- as June was based on 39 Bushels per Acre and a crop of 107.25 million bushels- July 3% smaller than the June guess. The 2024 crop settled in at 108.3 million bushels on a 39 BPA and 2.85 million acres.
Kansas saw a bigger drop from June to July- the June forecast was for 351.9 million bushels- with the July forecast 4.5% smaller for the state at 335 million bushels- based on 50 BPA and harvesting 6.7 million acres. The 2025 Kansas crop, if realized, is still significantly bigger than in 2024 when the Sunflower State raised 307.45 million bushels on more acres but fewer bushels per acre- just 43 BPA.
Texas has a predicted wheat crop for 2025 at 59.2 million bushels in the July report, based on 32 BPA on 1.85 million acres harvested. July is ten million bushels smaller than the June estimate- 15% smaller month to month and well under the 80.6 million bushels produced in 2024. The July estimate, if realized, is 27% smaller than the 2024 wheat crop in Texas.
The July USDA Crop Production report, which focuses primarily on wheat production across the country can be seen by clicking here. You can also see details of the WASDE for July and hear our conversation with Rich Nelson of Allendale by clicking here.
According to the numbers released at the national level- winter wheat production is forecast at 1.35 billion bushels, down 3 percent from the June 1 forecast and down less than 1 percent from 2024. As of July 1, the United States yield is forecast at 54.2 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from last month and up 2.5 bushels from last year’s average yield of 51.7 bushels per acre. If realized, the United States yield would be the second highest behind 2016.
Hard Red Winter production, at 755 million bushels, is down 4 percent from last month. Soft Red Winter, at
337 million bushels, is down 2 percent from the June forecast. White Winter, at 254 million bushels, is down slightly from last month. Of the White Winter production, 20.1 million bushels are Hard White and 234 million bushels are Soft White.
Durum wheat production is forecast at 79.7 million bushels, down less than 1 percent from 2024.
Based on July 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 38.7 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.6 bushel from 2024. Area harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 2.06 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2025, but up 1 percent from 2024.
Other spring wheat production for grain is forecast at 504 million bushels, down 7 percent from last year. Based on July 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 51.7 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.8 bushel from 2024. If realized, the United States yield would be the second highest behind last year. Area harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 9.75 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2025, but 6 percent below 2024. Of the total production, 469 million bushels are Hard Red Spring wheat, down 7 percent from 2024.
