After an uncharacteristically wet spring, Oklahoma is now firmly entrenched in its typical hot summer pattern, with State Climatologist Gary McManus signaling a shift towards drier conditions and a watchful eye on potential drought development. While the state recently enjoyed a rare period of drought-free status, localized areas are now showing signs of stress.
“Not drought quite yet,” clarified Gary McManus in a recent conversation with Farm Director KC Sheperd, but he noted a “very precarious” situation. Specifically, far southwest Oklahoma, particularly in parts of Greer and Jackson counties (or possibly Roger Mills and Greer counties), has experienced “abnormally dry conditions” (D0 on the Drought Monitor) over the last 60 to 70 days. This yellow shading on the map “doesn’t signify drought, but it shows areas either going into drought or coming out of drought,” McManus explained. Despite some recent rainfall, it hasn’t been enough to alleviate the dryness in this region, making it “the danger point in the state to see that drought come back.”
The timing of this dryness is particularly challenging. “It’s summer. It is hot. It has been hot, and it looks like it’s going to be hot for a while,” Sheperd observed. McManus concurred, acknowledging that while 2023 saw a relatively mild and wet period until late July, “it’s Oklahoma, it’s the southern plains. So eventually that heat dome is going to set overhead and just camp there.” This has led to “lots of triple digits on the heat index,” making conditions “pretty miserable, even at times when it hasn’t been as hot on that thermometer.”
The combination of high temperatures and receding rainfall (except for parts of northwestern Oklahoma) puts the state “in that danger zone of flash drought starting to occur if we’re not careful, and we don’t get some rainfall here in the next couple of weeks,” McManus warned.
While there’s hope for sporadic showers, significant widespread rain isn’t immediately on the horizon. McManus indicated some chances for northwestern and possibly central Oklahoma in the coming days, but beyond that, predicting summer rain is “a fool’s errand.” He noted that the Climate Prediction Center’s 8-to-14-day outlook shows increased odds of above-normal precipitation for the southern plains, but cautioned, “what exactly does that mean? Does that mean we’re going to have two days during that first week of August where it rains and then that makes that period above normal precipitation? I’m just not seeing a big signal for a lot of rain coming up.”
Despite the emerging dryness, Oklahoma’s water reservoirs are currently in good shape, largely thanks to an exceptionally wet period in late 2024 and early 2025. “All that rainfall we had, we got the… wettest November on record, and then we got the coup de gras in the drought there in April, when it was the wettest April on record,” McManus recalled. This, combined with abundant May and June rains, “continued to fill up those reservoirs.”
“Altus-Lugert… it’s more than it’s been in a long time,” McManus stated, adding that while the state is currently in a dry spell, “we can get out a few more weeks” on existing water stores. However, the long-term concern for summer drought, even with full lakes, shifts to “drying out that vegetation, it turning it dead or dormant, and then we get into fire danger,” which could then impact fall wheat planting. Most lakes across the state remain above their conservation pool levels, though some managed lakes have released water, and a few, like Lugert Altus, are drawing down.
Regarding larger weather patterns, McManus affirmed, “we’re in summer.” He explained that while phenomena like El Niño or La Niña typically influence Oklahoma’s weather by impacting the jet stream, their effect is minimal during the summer when the jet stream retreats north. However, looking ahead to the cool season, “there is some indication, sort of neutral conditions spiking out with La Niña.” La Niña conditions, known for bringing “drier than normal conditions and warmer than normal conditions” to the southern plains in late fall, winter, and early spring, are not favored by Oklahoma. While not “written in permanent ink,” the possibility of a weak La Niña exists, while the chances of a beneficial El Niño are “basically down close to zero.”
For now, Oklahomans are encouraged to enjoy the state’s full lakes and reservoirs, but remain mindful of the creeping dryness and persistent summer heat. As McManus succinctly put it, “we’re sitting pretty good for right now. So we’ll just see if we can get through summer.
To read more from Gary McManus on his mesonet ticker, click here:
