After months of record-setting rainfall and severe weather, Oklahoma is experiencing a classic summer shift, with rising temperatures and drying conditions bringing a familiar concern: drought. According to State Climatologist Gary McManus, the drought that had largely disappeared in June is now making a comeback, particularly in the southwestern and central parts of the state.
The month of July marked a turning point. After a mild and wet start to the summer, Oklahoma saw a distinct change in weather patterns. A heat wave began on July 18, bringing triple-digit temperatures and heat index values that soared into dangerous territory. The Oklahoma Mesonet recorded 254 triple-digit temperatures in July, with a peak of 106 degrees in Kingfisher. The combination of heat and dwindling rain has already led to “abnormally dry” conditions (D0) appearing on the U.S. Drought Monitor map in southwestern Oklahoma, covering nearly 5% of the state by the end of July.
McManus noted that the recent dry spell in the southwest has been particularly pronounced, with some areas going over a month without a quarter-inch of rain in a single day. This is a significant change from June, when Oklahoma was completely drought-free for the first time in almost six years.
While the heat returned, the threat of tornadoes lingered. A single confirmed tornado near Vance AFB in July extended the state’s tornado streak to five consecutive months. This brought the preliminary 2025 tornado count to 88 through July, far exceeding the annual average of 59.
Looking ahead, the outlook for August is not promising for rain lovers. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts increased odds of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the western third of Oklahoma. The outlook specifically calls for drought development to be “likely” in the southwest quarter of the state and into the western edge of central Oklahoma.
“Drought coming back into SW and Central OK through the end of this month, and it did indeed escalate quickly,” McManus said. For now, he advised Oklahomans to “just enjoy the mild, rainy weekend. And then…possible shenanigans.”
