A combination of favorable weather and a significant increase in planted acreage has led to a record-breaking year for U.S. corn production, according to the latest reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). This unprecedented harvest, while a testament to the resilience of the agricultural sector, poses a new question: what will be done with all the corn?
According to Anthony Prillaman of the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), this year’s harvest is “far and away a record corn crop.” This is due in part to a 2.2% increase in planted acreage from the June acreage report, a surprising jump that NASS attributes to improvements in its statistical accuracy. By incorporating certified Farm Service Agency data, farmer surveys, and satellite information earlier in the season, NASS was able to provide a more precise and timely forecast.
The USDA’s August crop production report projects a stunning production number of over 16.7 billion bushels and a yield of 188.8 bushels per acre. This is over 1.4 billion bushels more than the previous record set in 2023.
“We saw a very small week-over-week net decline in condition, losing a point in the good-to-excellent ratings, now 72%,” said USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey, noting that crop conditions remained strong throughout the growing season. The 2025 crop is significantly better than the 2024 crop, which was rated at just 67% good to excellent at this time last year.
With such a substantial supply, the focus now shifts to how this record-breaking crop will be used. World Agricultural Outlook Board Chair Mark Jekanowski outlined the USDA’s projections for the added corn supply:
- Feed and Residual: The forecast for feed and residual use has been raised by 250 million bushels, ensuring plenty of corn for livestock.
- Ethanol Production: An additional 100 million bushels are expected to be used for ethanol, which could find its way to fuel pumps.
- Exports: The export forecast was raised by 200 million bushels. Jekanowski noted that this reflects strong U.S. export demand, driven by a slow start to the marketing season from competitor Brazil and competitive prices.
Despite these increased usage projections, the sheer volume of the harvest means there will still be a significant surplus. According to USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer, this abundance is already putting downward pressure on prices, with a downward adjustment of 30 cents to $3.90 for the 2025-26 marketing year price.
This potential “corn conundrum” will continue to be a key topic in the agricultural community as producers, economists, and policymakers look for ways to balance the record supply with market demands.
