In today’s Beef Buzz, Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays speaks with Dr. Derrell Peel, who began by reviewing recent cattle reports, saying they show little evidence of herd rebuilding so far. “We just haven’t seen much change yet in any sort of heifer retention,” he explained. While many producers are “kind of interested in it” and “a few of them are doing it,” Peel stressed that, across the industry, rebuilding is “not happening at a very aggressive pace yet.” He warned that failing to hold back heifers this fall means fewer replacements in 2026 and 2027, delaying recovery for years.
Peel said the delay comes with a cost, particularly as cattle prices remain historically high. “Up until now, we’ve been pretty content to sort of take the money and run with these prices,” he noted. But he cautioned producers that, sooner or later, they will need to think about the “financial cost associated with making that investment” in replacements. Starting today, he said, would mean the industry likely wouldn’t see added beef production until “2028 into 2029,” underscoring how long rebuilding takes.
Discussing herd stabilization, Peel said cow slaughter has slowed enough in 2025 that “even the small number of heifers we had this year could stabilize the herd, or maybe even show just a fractional increase in 2026.” Still, he emphasized that the number of bred heifers coming into 2026 is “pretty small, so there’s very little potential for growth there.” The longer producers wait to act, the more expensive and delayed herd rebuilding becomes.
Turning to market signals, Peel pointed out that the strongest profits are at the cow-calf level. “The market is certainly telling you and rewarding you for producing and selling weaned calves right now,” he explained. But for stocker producers, he said the math is tougher. “That calf that you can sell at, say, 500 pounds, for 4.50 a pound those pounds are worth less than $2 a pound” when additional weight is added. Peel said that calculation shows “the market is not really encouraging retained ownership” at this time.
On feedlots, Peel acknowledged that conditions have been favorable in the short run, thanks to cheaper corn. “They’ve done so pretty good so far,” he said. But he warned that tightening cattle supplies will put pressure on feedyards. “They’re paying a tremendous amount for feeder cattle coming into the feedlots,” he noted, and without enough cattle, “feedlots may struggle if for no other reason, they can’t maintain the kinds of volumes that help them run efficiently.”
Looking ahead, Peel said fall weather could create opportunities for wheat pasture grazing. With expected rain and cooler temperatures, he called it “probably the best wheat planting for grazing season we’ve had in two or three, four years.” For operators with wheat, Peel suggested it might also become a pathway for herd growth. “We may see that may be the place where we start saving some heifers,” he said, turning stocker cattle into potential replacements rather than just feeders.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
