Allendale’s Rich Nelson joined associate farm reporter Carli Davenport to break down the latest USDA report, which delivered a mixed bag for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and livestock markets.
Wheat: Watching Russia Closely
The wheat market’s focus has shifted overseas. Russia’s crop has been consistently revised higher by private analysts, with estimates now around 87 million tons—well above USDA’s August figure of 83.5. “USDA took a first step in addressing this issue,” Nelson said, raising its estimate to 85.0 million tons. However, he cautioned that “we are going to have a little trouble on the export side, as Russia does step back into the export market.”
Corn Market: Acres Surprise Again
Corn grabbed attention with another surprise increase in planted acres. “Over two months, they’ve added 3.5 million to the prior June 30 acreage survey,” Nelson explained. While yields fell slightly, dropping 2.1 bushels per acre, that reduction was “more than offset by a net acreage increase.” The result was little change in ending stocks, holding steady near 2.11 billion bushels. Nelson reminded listeners of last year’s trend, where USDA “surprised the trade with light increases on the September yield number” despite dry weather, only to cut yields later in November and January.
Soybeans: Small Shifts, Stable Outlook
For soybeans, USDA nudged acres higher by 200,000, while yield estimates slipped just 0.1 bushels per acre. “That actually left us with a light net production increase,” Nelson noted, pushing ending stocks from 290 to 300 million bushels. He pointed out that most of the western Corn Belt had adequate moisture in August, while the eastern Corn Belt and Missouri faced dryness. “Perhaps we might see a light decline in yield numbers… on this next report or two,” he added, keeping the door open for modest revisions.
Cotton: Minimal Changes
Cotton saw only small adjustments. USDA added just 20,000 acres, leaving production and stocks largely unchanged at 3.6 million bales. Nelson described the situation as “still a crop a little tighter than last year, but not as tight as two years ago,” suggesting no major supply shocks ahead.
Livestock: Tightening Beef, Softer Pork
On the livestock side, USDA trimmed its 2025 beef production estimate by 100 million pounds, reflecting lighter-than-expected cattle placements. “That does tighten up a little bit that Q4 supply period,” Nelson said. Pork faced a sharper revision, with 200 million pounds cut from the 2025 forecast due to lower-than-expected slaughter. “Since mid-July, we’ve had hog slaughter below last year every week,” Nelson emphasized.
Looking Ahead
Next month’s USDA update may bring only minor changes to corn and soybean yields. “If they’re not done by this report, they’re probably not going to see major, major changes from here,” Nelson explained. The bigger story for soybeans will likely be exports, while wheat markets await the September 30 Small Grains Summary. On the livestock side, USDA is expected to firm up fourth-quarter production numbers, with beef likely slipping again and pork possibly edging higher.
To See more from Rich Nelson at Allendale, click here:
You can also view the full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
