Mark Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist, offers herd health advice as part of the weekly series known as the “Cow Calf Corner,” published electronically by Dr. Derrell Peel, Johnson, and Paul Beck. Today, Johnson discusses Carcass Weights, Quality Grades & Consumer Demand.
The chart above shows the trend of steer carcass weights over the past several years. The cattle feeding industry has maximized the number of days on feed in order to produce the tonnage of beef needed to meet consumer demand during a time of decreasing national cow herd inventory. According to seasonal norms, carcass weights are expected to increase through the end of the year and could top out at around 980 pounds. Heifer carcass weights are not shown in the chart but are currently at 872 pounds and expected to be near 900 pounds at their peak in December.
There are currently no market signals to indicate beef carcass weights will go down. Even long-term, pending increased heifer retention and a larger national cow inventory, market signals indicate more days on feed and heavier carcass weights will be the new normal. One of the most dramatic and interesting market signals is the proportion of higher USDA Quality Grade carcasses currently in the weekly harvest mix relative to robust consumer demand for consistently great tasting, higher quality beef.
For example, 20 years ago, the average harvest mix for the year 2005 was 36.5% Quality Grade Select and 55.8% Choice and Prime. Of those higher quality carcasses in the Choice and Prime grades, only 15.3% were in the upper two-thirds of Choice or Prime, with only 1 – 2% grading Prime. In 2005, the biggest determinant of carcass value was the Choice/Select spread.
How does that compare to 2025? Year to date, only 13.2% of carcasses are grading Select with 84.4% of all carcasses reaching Choice and Prime. Of those higher quality carcasses, a staggering 36.7% are in the upper two-thirds of Choice or Prime, with over 10% reaching the (formerly thought to be rarified air) USDA Quality Grade of Prime. In fact, for a stretch of over two months earlier this year, the weekly harvest mix yielded more Prime carcasses than Select carcasses. Currently, the Prime versus Choice spread is having the greatest impact on the value of a beef carcass. This as well could become the new normal as we look to meet consumer demand for a higher quality product.
Beef carcass quality is a result of the genetic potential to marble as well as the environment in which cattle are raised. That being said, marbling is a highly heritable trait in which cattle breeders have made significant improvement. Increased days on feed is an environmental influence permitting fed cattle to express their full genetic potential to reach higher marbling scores. Consumer preference for high quality beef and their willingness to pay for a great tasting beef product have created the need to supply this demand.
