Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are elevating the fire danger across Oklahoma today, with the most significant threat concentrated in the southwestern part of the state. While weekend rain brought some relief to eastern counties, most of western and central Oklahoma remains critically dry.
“Today presents the highest fire danger for the week,” officials noted in a statewide discussion, pointing to a combination of high temperatures, low humidity, and strong winds.
Monday’s Elevated Threat
Firefighters are on alert for a challenging day as a potent mix of weather elements will create receptive conditions for new fires to start and spread rapidly. While the overall potential for a significant, large-scale fire remains low, the probability of fires growing beyond 300 acres is enhanced today.
- Southwest Oklahoma: This region faces the most critical conditions. Temperatures are expected to soar into the 85° to 93° range, while afternoon humidity could plummet to as low as 12%. Southwest winds sustained at 16-20 mph with gusts near 30 mph will push fires quickly. In rangeland, flames could spread at a rate of 95 to 165 feet per minute with flame lengths up to 10 feet.
- Western & Northwestern Oklahoma: A cold front moving into the area will cause winds to shift from southwest to northerly by the afternoon, gusting around 30 mph. With temperatures in the mid-80s and humidity below 25%, fine-dead fuel moisture will be at a critical 4%. Fires in this region could spread at 85 to 125 feet per minute.
- Central Oklahoma: Despite some areas receiving rain over the weekend, fuels have dried out quickly. Temperatures will reach into the upper 80s with humidity in the 20-30% range. Southerly winds gusting ahead of the cold front will drive fires in grassy areas at rates of 75 to 130 feet per minute.
- Eastern Oklahoma: Having received the most beneficial rainfall, this region is at a lower risk. However, as fuels continue to dry today, new wildfires are still possible, particularly in grassy areas.
Outlook for the Rest of the Week
Conditions are expected to improve significantly starting Tuesday.
Tuesday & Wednesday: A welcome change is on the way. Following the cold front, Tuesday will be cooler, with highs in the 70s. Although humidity will remain low, calmer winds will dramatically limit the potential for fire spread. This will give initial attack crews a high probability of successfully containing any new starts. Dry conditions will continue through Wednesday.
Late-Week Rain: The forecast holds good news. Rain chances are set to increase late Thursday and continue through Saturday, with the potential for wetting rainfall across nearly the entire state. This much-needed moisture should bring a definitive end to the current period of elevated fire danger.
